A small low formed off a coastal trough close to the QLD/NSW border yesterday and is now drifting close to Lord Howe Island, continuing to move SE-E/SE towards New Zealand. A tight pressure gradient between the low and a dual-centred high moving through the Bight is creating low end gales and strong winds on the SW flank of the low and generating S’ly swells up the Eastern seaboard, favouring NSW for most size.
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A good coverage of strong breezes in the Coral Sea has built a handy tradewind swell, biggest in SEQLD and favouring the Points.
Leftover S/SE-SE swell from the last stages of the fetch as it lingered in the Eastern Tasman abutting New Zealand should hold some 3ft sets through most of the day, albeit slow and inconsistent. Mixed in will be an inconsistent signal of E swell, not offering more than the occasional 2-3ft set.
The strong reinforcing cold front is now almost across the Tasman with a large (1031hPa) high moving across from the Bight and already setting up a ridge along the QLD Coast. High pressure moves into the Tasman as we end the week with a dominant role into next week.
A 996 hPa low just off the coast and a 1034 hPa high in the Bight is creating a very tight pressure gradient with subsequent severe gales and an L-XL S swell event. The primary focus of this swell is temperate NSW inside the Hunter curve, with other areas seeing much less swell.
By Sunday we’ll see a deepening angled trough in the Tasman Sea with a low expected to form in the trough NE of Tasmania off the Gippsland Coast.
A much stronger cold outbreak looks poised to spawn a major Tasman Low Sun/Mon with the seasons first serious S swell expected.
Low pressure troughs off the NSW and SEQLD coast combined with high pressure over the interior and frontal activity to the south are driving a W’ly flow across the Eastern Seaboard, perfectly timed for a quality E’ly groundswell. We’ll see a slow easing of this swell event over the coming days with all day offshores expected.
No shortage of east swell this weekend, with the low in the northern Tasman Sea generating some impressive energy that'll build through Saturday towards a peak early Sunday.
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman.