South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed Dec 13)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• No major swell events throughout the forecast period
• Small swells with northerly winds for Thurs/Fri
• Chance for variable winds at times on the MNC, shallow S'ly change Fri AM
• N'ly winds Sat, S'ly winds Sun, variable Mon, then back to N'ly winds Tues onwards

Recap

Tuesday delivered really nice, easing surf from the E/NE with 3-4ft sets and light morning winds, even the afternoon sea breeze didn’t amount to much in many areas. Today’s seen much smaller, weaker surf from the E/NE and the new southerly groundswell has come in much smaller than expected across Northern NSW, with slow, inconsistent 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets at best. This is in stark contrast to Sydney, which picked up solid 4-5ft sets, and some parts of the lower Mid North Coast which were reportedly 6ft+ this morning.

This week (Dec 14 - 15)

The rest of the week looks very ordinary for SE Qld, mainly due to a freshening northerly flow. There won’t be a lot of surf on offer anyway, just a minor mix of energy from the E/NE and S. 

The same swell trend will apply across Northern NSW and the Mid North Coast, and freshening N/NE winds adjacent the Northern NSW coast on Thursday will build some local windswell across the region (though of very low quality).  

However, surface conditions look tricky - an approaching trough and trailing southerly change will create pockets of light variable winds south from about Yamba. Friday in particular has some mild promise, as we’ll see the southerly change nose into the lower Mid North Coast during the morning, though it’s expected to peter out around Coffs or thereabouts. So slack winds are likely for the afternoon.

However, these potential windows of opportunity won’t accompany any great surf prospects so keep your expectations low in general.

This weekend (Dec 16 - 17)

The weekend still looks pretty craptacular.

On Saturday, a small long period S’ly groundswell is expected to make landfall across south facing beaches south of Byron, generated by a trailing front in the Southern Ocean earlier this week. There won’t be a lot of size on offer, but more defined 2ft+ sets should show at the region’s more reliable south swell magnets. 

Otherwise, minor background E’ly swells and some local N’ly windswell will pad out remaining coasts.

Saturday’s winds look to be freshening northerly all day, swinging to the south across all regions on Sunday (then SE in southern regions) in the wake of a weak trough that may form a small low off the Northern NSW coast (see below).

Model guidance doesn’t offer a whole lot of potential from this low, but I’ll keep a cautious eye on it for now as we may see some short range energy fill in across Northern NSW throughout the day. Of course, local wind prospects don’t look very favourable right now either.

Next week (Dec 18 onwards)

Persistant troughiness will linger across the coastal margin for much of next week, but there’s still no sign of any major swell generating systems. 

The small low forming off the North Coast on Sunday may provide some small surf for Monday, however northerlies look like they’ll soon make a return too, and may dominate the region for much of the working week. 

Additionally, we have some developing trade flow out near Fiji for the long term but no major size is expected from this region either. A small tropical cyclone could form out across the eastern Fijian region this weekend but it doesn’t hold much size potential right now.

All in all, the lead up to Xmas is looking a little on the small side. But I’ll have more on that in Friday’s update.