Slow moving STC Jasper and its supporting wind field send plenty of swell to the sub-tropics
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th Dec)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Bump in N/NE-NE swell Fri PM for SEQLD
- N/NE-NE groundswell (flukey) favouring Sunshine Coast Sat in amongst other swell trains
- Building E-E/NE cyclone associated swells over the weekend- solid Sat PM and Sun with onshore E’ly winds
- Solid E’ly swells into Mon, although easing as TC Jasper approaches NQ coast
- Easing E’ly swell Tues/Wed with continuing onshore winds
- Small S’ly groundswell Wed, easing Thurs favouring NENSW S facing beaches
- Back to small, weak swells by late next week
Recap
Continuing small bag of surf with yesterday seeing a slight bump in swell, which seemed to be a mix of SE swell and E swell. Small lines to 2ft ( the occ. 3fter on the Sunshine Coast) with light morning winds which tended NE in the a’noon. Today we are seeing more small surf in the 1-2ft range with a small bump in size expected in the a’noon as swells filter down from E’ly winds surrounding severe TC Jasper.
This weekend (Dec 9-10)
No great change to the weekend f/cast. Severe TC Jasper has been slow moving and intensifying (Category 4 now) over the last 36hrs. It’s slow (2-3kts) S/SW track between 158-156E is in the acute N/NE swell window- even though that part of the window tends to be flukey due to interference from reefs and it’s reliance on a perfect track to clear Fraser and the Breaksea Spit. That aids confidence in some steeply angled N/NE-NE groundswell from STC Jasper over the weekend. We’re already seeing N/NE swell show in QLD so expect 3-5ft surf tomorrow, with some bigger sets likely in SEQLD and a notch smaller south of the Border. Winds will be a problem, lighter E-NE in SEQLD, becoming fresh NE in NENSW, especially south of Yamba. You may have to think outside the box on this one.
The supporting wind field below Jasper thickens up Sat which should provide a well conditioned E/NE swell for Sun- up in the 4-6 ft range and widespread across the f/cast region ( a little smaller in the south towards the MNC). No great change to the winds- a notch lighter E’ly to E/NE’ly in SEQLD and more NE in NENSW. Winds should stay light enough to surf scrappy but serviceable waves on the Points- at least there’ll be heaps of size and consistency.
Next week (Dec 11 onwards)
Plenty of swell to start the week. TC Jasper is set to take a W’ly track with a Far North QLD coastal crossing now the most likely outcome. The slow forwards movement of the TC and it’s associated E’ly windfield will hold plenty of size into Mon. Expect 4-5ft surf with the occ. bigger 6ft set at outer E swell bars and Points and smaller surf inside Bays and inside Points. Winds remain onshore E-NE but should stay light enough for workable surf if you’re not too fussy.
By Tues a slow easing trend will be in place, with size slowly rolling down through the gears. Under current modelling we should still be seeing at least 4ft surf on Tues (occ. 5ft sets) and dropping down to 3ft (occ. 4ft sets) Wed. Expect surf to grade smaller from these heights the further south from Tweed-Byron you go.
Winds will remain light/mod E’ly -NE’ly through this period.
A powerful front and parent low passing under the continent and lower Tasman Sun into Mon looks too supply long period S’ly groundswell. We should see first signs of this swell at S magnets Wed in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW.
Easing swells from this source Thurs with a bit of workable NE windswell likely to build in over the dying S swell.
Further ahead and the troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea and over the continent looks to remain entrenched. There are signs that fronts passing under the continent will send more glancing S swells up the coast, favouring S facing beaches in NENSW. A trade-wind band in the South Pacific will supply small, background energy favouring the sub-tropics. In short, nothing major, but it looks like we should have enough swell energy to stay in the water.
Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!
Comments
Water temps have today just cracked 27 degrees on the Gold and Tweed Coasts (yesterday on the Sunny Coast). Gladstone has been pushing 28 degrees this week.
I suspect it's probably just the skin layer not having much turnover due to a general lack of strength in the sea breezes this week.
Nuts.
Are these confirmed inshore also?
Arvo swim was almost too warm yesterday.
Some nice little lines showing at Agnes.
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/agnes-water
https://www.gpcl.com.au/environment/live-beach-cameras/agnes-water-webcam/
That looks super fun, even with the light onshore
Going to be v. interesting too see how this steeper angled N/NE-NE swell shows.
It's quite uncommon, although we did have a similar angled swell in Feb from TC Gabrielle- which showed very unevenly but distinctly at some spots.
I think Jasper is in a better part of the swell window for this slow S/SW movement.
Me too, much better! And as you mentioned very slow moving.
He’s a compact little lad.
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_METB/zooms/WMB...
Is it an absolute affirmative that Jasper is gonna cross the holy ghost?
Water is so warm.
Just when I thought I was starting to follow along nicely with your swell forecasting, I am befuddled looking at the wind forecast and trying to understand 4-6ft from the E-NE! The N-NE direction makes sense.
Is it a great circle path or refraction thing?
Looking at google earth its quite a needle the N-NE swell has to thread thru the reefs you mention. Fingers crossed!
On a bit of a tangent.
Yesterday the water was clear and blue and warm.
Today, although the (offshore) buoy said 24.6 degrees, the water inshore was cooler, and dirty and green.
The wind has been roughly similar yesterday and today although there were some light to moderate northerlies from mid-afternoon into the evening before becoming light and then calm after 2000 hours.
So my question is, was this brief period of unimpressive northerlies enough to cause this dirty water inshore or is there something else at play?
Any takers?
Bottom of the tide?
I’ve also seen pockets of cold weedy water get trapped between headlands. One side can be great, other side rubbish. So maybe a pool of colder water has got trapped in the corner there.
Would have been halfway through the incoming.
I reckon the rare N-NE swell can have an upwelling effect nearshore even if the wind is light
So it's flat here (tweed coast/north byron) 6.30pm... am I still to wake in the morning to overhead waves?
No, give it some time to fill in.
Deffo some new energy in the morning though.
He’s down to 938 hPa!!
Feet up Agnes boys and girls. Shark attack this arvo at 1770.
Saw that.
Jeepers just read the articles. Hope the surfer pulls through ok.
Latest maps have it crossing Qld and reforming in the Gulf of Carpentaria, before crossing the NT and reforming once again off the Kimberly coast. it will be interesting to see if it continues west or swings east once again after a southern detour to do a lap of Oz.
I just looked at the BOM site .
Looks like One High getting stuck in the middle of the Tasman for ...ever ?
Seems ....different !
edit - but not 100% sure what happened yesterday .
Swell Def Starting to show on Aggie and Noosa Cams now..
Very small still in Cooly. Nothing really showing yet
1-2foot max dribble in Ballina still.
Is the swell late or coming undersized ?
Sunshine Coast is 3 foot.
Super inco sets on the Tweed, occ 3-4ft and lumpy but OK with a light onshore breeze. Didn't really feel like a cyclone swell TBH.
Same but a little smaller here (20kms south of you), maybe shoulder high at best, seemed better on the higher tide, certainly not what was predicted.
Looks like it’s starting to push in a little stronger at rainbow bay now.
It does, maybe my stretch of beach is missing the NE swell, suppose we face more straight E here.
3-4' wide of Rainbow. Wind okay too
I see that windy has the cyclone crossing up north and reforming nth of Darwin.
It’s been a interesting system.
Ha ha and tropical tidbits has it reforming in the gulf of carpenteria , swinging back east over her own destruction then dashing down the coast flat out to our place …….. interesting.
Sheesh. Remember Oswald? That went on for ever
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/Oswald.shtml
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-11/cyclone-jasper-willis-island-bom-...
Barrier reef north of Cairns to the Cape is coping 2 meters of E to SE groundswell and W to Nw winds.
Love to know what's out there. 1000ks of shark infested reef passes firing up perhaps.