Slow moving STC Jasper and its supporting wind field send plenty of swell to the sub-tropics

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th Dec)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Bump in N/NE-NE swell Fri PM for SEQLD
  • N/NE-NE groundswell (flukey) favouring Sunshine Coast Sat in amongst other swell trains
  • Building E-E/NE cyclone associated swells over the weekend- solid Sat PM and Sun with onshore E’ly winds
  • Solid E’ly swells into Mon, although easing as TC Jasper approaches NQ coast
  • Easing E’ly swell Tues/Wed with continuing onshore winds
  • Small S’ly groundswell Wed, easing Thurs favouring NENSW S facing beaches
  • Back to small, weak swells by late next week

Recap

Continuing small bag of surf with yesterday seeing a slight bump in swell, which seemed to be a mix of SE swell and E swell. Small lines to 2ft ( the occ. 3fter on the Sunshine Coast) with light morning winds which tended NE in the a’noon. Today we are seeing more small surf in the 1-2ft range with a small bump in size expected in the a’noon as swells filter down from E’ly winds surrounding severe TC Jasper. 

Last day of insipid surf as TC Jasper enters the chat

This weekend (Dec 9-10)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Severe TC Jasper has been slow moving and intensifying (Category 4 now) over the last 36hrs. It’s slow (2-3kts) S/SW track between 158-156E is in the acute N/NE swell window- even though that part of the window tends to be flukey due to interference from reefs and it’s reliance on a perfect track to clear Fraser and the Breaksea Spit. That aids confidence in some steeply angled N/NE-NE groundswell from STC Jasper over the weekend. We’re already seeing N/NE swell show in QLD so expect 3-5ft surf tomorrow, with some bigger sets likely in SEQLD and a notch smaller south of the Border. Winds will be a problem, lighter E-NE in SEQLD, becoming fresh NE in NENSW, especially south of Yamba. You may have to think outside the box on this one.

The supporting wind field below Jasper thickens up Sat which should provide a well conditioned E/NE swell for Sun- up in the 4-6 ft range and widespread across the f/cast region ( a little smaller in the south towards the MNC). No great change to the winds- a notch lighter E’ly to E/NE’ly in SEQLD and more NE in NENSW. Winds should stay light enough to surf scrappy but serviceable waves on the Points- at least there’ll be heaps of size and consistency. 

Next week (Dec 11 onwards)

Plenty of swell to start the week. TC Jasper is set to take a W’ly track with a Far North QLD coastal crossing now the most likely outcome. The slow forwards movement of the TC and it’s associated E’ly windfield will hold plenty of size into Mon. Expect 4-5ft surf with the occ. bigger 6ft set at outer E swell bars and Points and smaller surf inside Bays and inside Points. Winds remain onshore E-NE but should stay light enough for workable surf if you’re not too fussy.

By Tues a slow easing trend will be in place, with size slowly rolling down through  the gears. Under current modelling we should still be seeing at least 4ft surf on Tues (occ. 5ft sets) and dropping down to 3ft (occ. 4ft sets) Wed. Expect surf to grade smaller from these heights the further south from Tweed-Byron you go. 

Winds will remain light/mod E’ly -NE’ly through this period.

A powerful front and parent low passing under the continent and lower Tasman Sun into Mon looks too supply long period S’ly groundswell. We should see first signs of this swell at S magnets Wed in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW.

Easing swells from this source Thurs with a bit of workable NE windswell likely to build in over the dying S swell. 

Further ahead and the troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea and over the continent looks to remain entrenched. There are signs that fronts passing under the continent will send more glancing S swells up the coast, favouring S facing beaches in NENSW. A trade-wind band in the South Pacific will supply small, background energy favouring the sub-tropics. In short, nothing major, but it looks like we should have enough swell energy to stay in the water.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 12:47pm

Water temps have today just cracked 27 degrees on the Gold and Tweed Coasts (yesterday on the Sunny Coast). Gladstone has been pushing 28 degrees this week.

I suspect it's probably just the skin layer not having much turnover due to a general lack of strength in the sea breezes this week.

Nuts.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 12:57pm

Are these confirmed inshore also?

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 1:05pm

Arvo swim was almost too warm yesterday.
Some nice little lines showing at Agnes.
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/agnes-water
https://www.gpcl.com.au/environment/live-beach-cameras/agnes-water-webcam/

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 1:32pm

That looks super fun, even with the light onshore

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 1:38pm

Going to be v. interesting too see how this steeper angled N/NE-NE swell shows.
It's quite uncommon, although we did have a similar angled swell in Feb from TC Gabrielle- which showed very unevenly but distinctly at some spots.

I think Jasper is in a better part of the swell window for this slow S/SW movement.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 1:41pm

Me too, much better! And as you mentioned very slow moving.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 3:11pm
megzy151's picture
megzy151's picture
megzy151 Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 3:11pm

Is it an absolute affirmative that Jasper is gonna cross the holy ghost?

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 3:12pm

Water is so warm.
Just when I thought I was starting to follow along nicely with your swell forecasting, I am befuddled looking at the wind forecast and trying to understand 4-6ft from the E-NE! The N-NE direction makes sense.
Is it a great circle path or refraction thing?
Looking at google earth its quite a needle the N-NE swell has to thread thru the reefs you mention. Fingers crossed!

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 5:33pm

On a bit of a tangent.
Yesterday the water was clear and blue and warm.
Today, although the (offshore) buoy said 24.6 degrees, the water inshore was cooler, and dirty and green.
The wind has been roughly similar yesterday and today although there were some light to moderate northerlies from mid-afternoon into the evening before becoming light and then calm after 2000 hours.
So my question is, was this brief period of unimpressive northerlies enough to cause this dirty water inshore or is there something else at play?
Any takers?

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 6:17pm

Bottom of the tide?
I’ve also seen pockets of cold weedy water get trapped between headlands. One side can be great, other side rubbish. So maybe a pool of colder water has got trapped in the corner there.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 6:20pm

Would have been halfway through the incoming.

shraz's picture
shraz's picture
shraz Monday, 11 Dec 2023 at 4:33pm

I reckon the rare N-NE swell can have an upwelling effect nearshore even if the wind is light

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 6:39pm

So it's flat here (tweed coast/north byron) 6.30pm... am I still to wake in the morning to overhead waves?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 9:09pm

No, give it some time to fill in.
Deffo some new energy in the morning though.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 7:24pm

He’s down to 938 hPa!!

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 7:32pm

Feet up Agnes boys and girls. Shark attack this arvo at 1770.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 9:31pm

Saw that.

Danm's picture
Danm's picture
Danm Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 9:38pm

Jeepers just read the articles. Hope the surfer pulls through ok.

paulinoz's picture
paulinoz's picture
paulinoz Saturday, 9 Dec 2023 at 11:01am

Latest maps have it crossing Qld and reforming in the Gulf of Carpentaria, before crossing the NT and reforming once again off the Kimberly coast. it will be interesting to see if it continues west or swings east once again after a southern detour to do a lap of Oz.

Pop Down's picture
Pop Down's picture
Pop Down Saturday, 9 Dec 2023 at 1:59pm

I just looked at the BOM site .

Looks like One High getting stuck in the middle of the Tasman for ...ever ?

Seems ....different !

edit - but not 100% sure what happened yesterday .

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 9 Dec 2023 at 2:27pm

Swell Def Starting to show on Aggie and Noosa Cams now..

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 9 Dec 2023 at 3:11pm

Very small still in Cooly. Nothing really showing yet

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Sunday, 10 Dec 2023 at 5:50am

1-2foot max dribble in Ballina still.

Fresh55's picture
Fresh55's picture
Fresh55 Sunday, 10 Dec 2023 at 7:46am

Is the swell late or coming undersized ?

Sunshine Coast is 3 foot.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 10 Dec 2023 at 1:01pm

Super inco sets on the Tweed, occ 3-4ft and lumpy but OK with a light onshore breeze. Didn't really feel like a cyclone swell TBH.

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron Sunday, 10 Dec 2023 at 1:07pm

Same but a little smaller here (20kms south of you), maybe shoulder high at best, seemed better on the higher tide, certainly not what was predicted.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Sunday, 10 Dec 2023 at 1:11pm

Looks like it’s starting to push in a little stronger at rainbow bay now.

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron Sunday, 10 Dec 2023 at 1:21pm

It does, maybe my stretch of beach is missing the NE swell, suppose we face more straight E here.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Sunday, 10 Dec 2023 at 6:12pm

3-4' wide of Rainbow. Wind okay too

eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies Monday, 11 Dec 2023 at 7:42am

I see that windy has the cyclone crossing up north and reforming nth of Darwin.
It’s been a interesting system.

eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies Monday, 11 Dec 2023 at 10:50am

Ha ha and tropical tidbits has it reforming in the gulf of carpenteria , swinging back east over her own destruction then dashing down the coast flat out to our place …….. interesting.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Monday, 11 Dec 2023 at 6:26pm

Sheesh. Remember Oswald? That went on for ever
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/Oswald.shtml

barreldodger's picture
barreldodger's picture
barreldodger Monday, 11 Dec 2023 at 8:00pm

Barrier reef north of Cairns to the Cape is coping 2 meters of E to SE groundswell and W to Nw winds.

Love to know what's out there. 1000ks of shark infested reef passes firing up perhaps.