South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Lighter more variable winds Thurs-Fri with more small surf- small, weak NE swells
• Small S swell for NENSW S facing beaches later Fri into Sat
• Slightly Stronger S Mon
• Small E/SE swell likely to develop next week
• No major swells on the horizon - very lazy Coral Sea and South Pacific 

Recap

Peaky beachies yesterday offered up a bit of Boxing Day fun for the keen in the 2ft range with clean-ish morning conditions before mod/fresh NE winds kicked in. N’lies are with us again today, lighter on the MNC where cleaner conditions are on offer, stronger in SEQLD where most beaches are wind affected. Similar size surf, in the 2ft range on the sets and surfable if you aren’t too fussy about wave quality. 

Lighter winds on the MNC offered up some small, clean peaks this morning

This week (Dec 27-29)

No great change to the summer pattern with a massive heat dome over Central, Western and Northern Australia spawning trough lines which are creating unstable, stormy weather across large swathes of the East Coast. A complex inland trough/low is emerging from the Gippsland coast into the Tasman Sea with a fetch of SE-E/SE winds aimed at Tasmania and offering some small sideband energy up into Southern/Central NSW. Elsewhere, it’s a bland pattern with a dormant Coral Sea. Cold fronts later this week and over the weekend will supply some minor S swell favouring NENSW S facing beaches. 

In the short run a trough system off the MNC brings an offshore flow there, remaining N’ly (NW early) in SEQLD with winds tending variable in NENSW in the a’noon, NE in SEQLD. Not much swell, just more of the same NE swell in the 1-2ft range, but at least it should be clean in the morning, especially south of the border.

Light and variable winds around the trough continue into Fri, with a morning offshore flow tending to variable seabreezes in the a’noon. Again, a low energy ocean offers up a few 1-2ft sets at best across open beaches.

This weekend (Dec 30-31)

Hard to see much of interest surf-wise to close out 2023. Very low energy swells, likely in the 1-1.5ft range Sat. The MNC may see a slight signal of S swell from a weak front Thurs/Fri but we’re talking 2ft under the most optimistic interpretation. Light and variable winds will at least provide good conditions for Sat.

Those winds continue into Sun morning before the trough gets captured by an advancing high pressure ridge, with onshore SE-E/SE winds likely to freshen through the a’noon. If you are super keen there may be an increase in onshore SE windswell late in the day. Otherwise, just a weak E swell signal to 1-1.5ft. 

Next week (Jan 1 onwards)

Looks like strengthening high pressure in the Tasman for Jan 1, 2024 with a light/moderate onshore flow on the cards. Early birds will find some small  mid period S swell to 3-4ft range at NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 2ft in SEQLD where short period E’ly swells continue to 1-2ft. It’s a pretty grim outlook.  

High pressure in the Tasman moves E and sets up a E flow in the Northern Tasman. This weak E’ly fetch in the Northern Tasman looks to hold a weak background signal of 2ft surf, slightly bigger 2-3ft on the MNC.

Expect surf from that source and weak winds in the Coral Sea to maintain small, weak surf in the 1-2ft range through Tues-Thurs. Winds look to be light though as a large troughy area lingers off the SEQLD Coast. 

A polar low may send traces of long period S swell up the coast Wed, with a few select S facing beaches seeing 2-3ft sets, unlikely to show elsewhere.

Further ahead and a northwards advancing trough ahead of another large high in the Bight looks to bring a S’ly change Thurs with a reasonable S/SE surge behind it as the trough moves into the Tasman. We’ll see how it looks on Fri but we’ll see some modest short range S-S/SE swell fill in as that fetch sets up, likely through later Thurs into Fri. 

Coral Sea and tropical South Pacific continues to look very sleepy so our swell sources look to be more small S pulses and NE wind swells as we motor into 2024. 

Check back Fri for the latest.