South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell for NENSW S facing beaches later Fri into Sat
• Variable winds Sat, tending stronger S-SE into Sun
• Slightly Stronger S swell late Sun into Mon
• Workable E/SE swell likely to develop next week with S-SE winds
• Possibly stronger S-S/SE swell next weekend if low develops off NSW Coast

Recap

More small, weak beachies yesterday in the 1-2ft range, but at least winds were light through the morning, offering up clean conditions. Similar winds today, although more true offshore. A sneaky S swell was offering up some 2-3ft sets at NENSW S facing beaches this morning, with smaller 1-2ft surf (tops) at SEQLD swell magnets. 

MNC beachies were again the best of it

This weekend (Dec 30-31)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Just a small, weak mixed bag of leftover S swells and E swells to 1-2ft at best Sat, similar or smaller Sun. 

Winds will be tricky on Sat as troughs area swirls around off the Far North Coast. We should see a basically NW-N flow on the Sunshine Coast, with a W-SW flow south of the border, tending to variable breezes through the a’noon (most likely SE-NE). In short, best early but likely light enough to surf all day in small, weak surf.

The trough clears northwards Sun and a widespread S/SE flow becomes established after a period of offshore winds in the morning. We may see some new short range SE swell on the MNC to North Coast as winds focus in that area but wave quality will be low so keep expectations pegged low for the final surf of 2023. Mid period S swell looks to propagate northwards up the coast Sun a’noon from a frontal system passing into the Tasman today and Sat (see below) so worth keeping an eye through the a’noon if you have one of those rare spots open to S swell and protected from SE winds.

Front brings some small S swell later NYE and New Years Day

Next week (Jan 1 onwards)

High pressure moves into the Tasman to start the New Year, with the small trough that was off the NSW Central Coast moving north to be off the sub-tropical coast on Mon. That will see an onshore flow, likely S/SE, tending SE through the day. We should see a mix of mid period S swell and short range SE-E/SE swell (bigger south of the border) with size in the 3ft range, grading smaller 2ft in SEQLD.

A typical summer wind pattern of SE breezes, lighter inshore early, then sets in for most of the week. We’ll see a small signal of SE-E/SE swells from  E’ly winds in the Northern Tasman, which will hold a weak summer surf in the 2ft range, bigger south of Ballina. Enough for a daily grovel.

Polar lows and frontal activity well to the south of the continent and scooting across the Far Southern Tasman early next week will supply small traces of S groundswell with a flukey distribution across S facing beaches. Check late Wed at local S swell magnets for some 2ft sets, similar Thurs. There’s some decent swell periods on offer so outliers at direct S facing reefs could be on the cards.

Further ahead and a trough off the NSW South Coast in advance of a dominant high moving through the Bight looks to bring a vigorous S’ly change possibly Fri. Models are divergent as to the fate of the trough with GFS suggesting a deepening of the system as it moves northwards, potentially forming a closed surface low and generating plenty of S-S/SE swell into next weekend.

EC has a much more modest system, dissipating quickly and leading to a more bog standard high pressure ridge with onshore winds and small SE swells.

Low confidence this far out, but we’ll hope for a bit of juice to clear out the cobwebs for 2024.

Check back Mon for the latest, and have a great NYE weekend!