Thursday looks like a dynamic day. A trough deepens and inflames a strong S’ly flow along the NSW coast, extending into the Tasman.

Once that high moves offshore we’ll see N’lies kick in for the rest of the week with only a weak trough expected to interrupt that pattern. No major swells on the radar through the short or medium term.

We’ll see a deep parent low finally moving below Tasmania early next week after generating multiple large swells for Victoria. As the low moves eastwards we should see a final frontal passage through Bass Strait and with a fetch SE of Tasmania, generating a sizey S swell for Tues/Wed next week.

The pattern of strong, zonal W’lies tied to polar lows and embedded cold fronts and weak mobile high pressure won’t offer much north of Seal Rocks but we will see some small S swells generated by gales out of Bass Strait this week with a mostly NW-W flow across southern NSW and NW-N in the sub-tropics. There’ll be a few small windows, favouring the MNC.