We currently have a deepening trough of low pressure developing behind a front which is bringing fresh and gusty S’ly winds up the NSW coastline, extending into the sub-tropics through the day. This trough of low pressure deepens into a surface low in the Tasman and is expected to track in a northerly direction through the short term.

Latest model runs have amplified this trough and a resulting trough of low pressure in the Tasman. There’s still some model divergence to get through so expect some revisions but odds are firming off a sizey S tending S/SE swell event from Thurs, as the trough deepens in the Central Tasman. 

A very weak troughy pattern is unfolding this week with a weak high pressure (1016hPa) cell moving into the Tasman today as a trough stalls about the Far North Coast. Another trough tomorrow brings a shallow S’ly change which again looks to stall out on the North Coast before another weak high cell moves into the Tasman late this week. In short, no major swells expected.

A long tradewind fetch anchored by a 1024hPa high in the central SW Pacific is slowly retreating eastwards with a weak high cell expected to migrate into the Tasman overnight and tomorrow in the wake of a shallow trough now moving up the NSW Coast and expected to stall and wash out around the lower reaches of the MNC.