We’ve got a very dynamic week ahead, anchored by very strong high pressure moving into the far-southern Tasman and acting as anvil for a deep low which is expected to form in the tropical South Pacific between New Caledonia and Vanuatu o/night into tomorrow before drifting SW into the Tasman as a deep, extra-tropical low pressure system. This system intensifies through the week and is now expected to generate a large E’ly quadrant swell for the Eastern Seaboard heading into and over the Easter weekend.
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The Sunshine Coast is best positioned for this swell (relative to the fetch alignment) and so will pick up the most size.
High pressure is moving into the Tasman, strengthening as it drifts towards New Zealand, where it is expected to become a dominant “flat topped” feature, reinforced by subsequent high pressure moving into the Tasman. We’ll see a long E’ly fetch develop through the South Pacific slot through the end of this week, enhanced by a trough of low pressure near New Caledonia which is attached to a still active monsoon trough.
A long E’ly fetch then develops in the South Pacific slot with the head of the fetch extending into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. E’ly swells from this source will initially favour the sub-tropics before filtering down into temperate NSW.
We’ve got a small, slow weekend ahead for SE Qld. But Northern NSW is looking OK. And next weekend is shaping up really well for all coasts.
We’ll see the low meander towards the South Island for the remainder of the week, with large swells on the ease across Southern/Central NSW, much less size into the sub-tropics. A trough is sitting off the SEQLD coast directing moist SE winds along the region.
We have a powerful swell generating pattern in place with a deep low (993hPa) in the Tasman, supported by a large high (1033hPa) well to the south of the Bight.
We’re now looking at a very significant S swell early next week as a deep low sits off the South or Gippsland Coast with severe gales to storm force winds aimed into the proximate southern swell window.
It’s likely we will see remnants of the inland monsoon low approach the SEQLD/NSW Coast during the weekend, dragging a moist NE flow down from the tropics and creating a mini black nor-easter event. We’ll see surf from this NE-E/NE infeed propagate from the sub-tropics down to temperate regions over the weekend.
Our eastern swell window is about to become juiced up as a coastal trough across Northern NSW and a high in the Tasman Sea strengthen the trade flow across the Northern Tasman Sea.