Looks like broad brushstrokes can be used to outline the next few days
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Under the influence of the high pressure belt it’ll be a week of SE to E/SE’ly winds and a small blend of E’ly tradewind swell trains.
The headline news is TC Dovi, which formed north-east of New Caledonia Wed a’noon and is moving SW at about 12 knots inside the Coral Sea. At 5am this morning TC Dovi was about 730 nautical miles E/NE of the Queensland border. That puts it in our swell window and although Dovi is currently Cat 3 it’s surf potential is limited by the compact fetch and expected increased speed of movement over the next 24 hrs.
A building trend will be in place Sat, primarily from the ridge that develops between a strong high and the cyclone/low as it begins the journey south.
A broad region of low pressure in the central/northeastern Tasman Sea is maintaining easterly thru’ south-easterly gales (via two seperate fetches) aimed mainly towards Southern NSW, but a healthy percentage is pushing SE energy up into Northern NSW.
A strong monsoonal surge pushing off the tropics into the Coral Sea is super-charged by the vorticity created by the monster high pressure ridge. Models now seem in broad agreement that a large, dual-centred, low pressure gyre forms across the Coral Sea/South Pacific and into the North Tasman Sea.
The main feature of the forecast period of a gusty southerly change that’s already arrived in Southern NSW, and will push across the Mid North Coast overnight, reaching Far Northern NSW mid-late morning and the Gold Coast around lunchtime.
This extended run of quality point break surf means there's a chance for the crowds to spread out over the course of the week which, combined with a consistent, super-charged trade swell event, should allow a (relatively) healthy wave count for all and sundry.
The charts will show a low pressure system tracking in from the South Pacific with a very healthy fetch between the low and a supporting high straddling New Zealand over Sun into Mon.
First, from the west as a trough/low tied to the Southern and Indian Oceans moves through WA and SA and then from the East as a tropical low drifts into the slot from behind New Caledonia this weekend. That spells a lot of surf ahead.