South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 25th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• E swell rebuilds from Thurs as surface low forms off Fraser Coast with increasing wind and rain
• Chunky E swell peaks Fri in SEQLD, Sat in NENSW, with winds tending SW/S as low moves south
• Easing E swell Sun with offshore winds
• Last pulse of E/SE swell Mon/easing quickly Tues
• W'ly winds and tiny surf likely by mid next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Cleaner conditions have become established since Mon, with lighter winds on offer as a result of troughs near the coast and a weaker pressure gradient as the ridge slackens. Light morning SW breezes have tended to lighter S to SE winds. Plenty of E swell on offer, in the 3-4ft range both days, with Points offering the more attractive wave quality. If you could find a good beachie bank, it was worth its weight in gold. 

Groundhog day, with a few options on the semi-protected beachies

This week (May 25-27)

Synoptic pattern still has a ground-hog day feel to it, with a large, slow moving high inching it’s way across the Tasman and a coastal trough lying parallel to almost the entire East Coast. A series of powerful fronts and complex low pressure systems riding up the long wave trough in New Zealand longitudes are now reaching their final stages, with a little more SSE groundswell to come in. Attention will still be focused on the tropics/sub-tropics as a surface low forms at the northern end of the trough off the CQ coast through Thurs/Fri and tracks southwards into the weekend, bringing (another!) rebuild in E’ly swell. 

In the short run and the developing E’ly windfield around the deepening trough in the Coral Sea is expected to see increasing SE winds through Thurs with a brief window of lighter SW winds inshore early. Still plenty of E swell in the 3-4ft range, bigger 4ft on the Gold Coast outer points.

The trough forms a surface low Fri which will see winds increase from the S/SE in SEQLD, E/SE in NENSW. Depending on the timing off the movement of the low we may see winds tend more SW to S, especially on the Sunshine Coast. The movement of the low and intensification in the fetch of E’ly winds on the Southern Flank will see surf increase during the day. SEQLD should see a morning increase up into the 4-5ft with some 6ft sets, with size building later in NENSW.  A lighter SW/WSW flow is likely on the Mid North Coast so keep tabs on local winds south of Coffs as swell builds in the a’noon.

This weekend (May 28-29)

Still looking good this weekend, mostly as a result of improved, tending offshore, winds, which should be persistent both days as the low moves south and we get a SW to W offshore outflow. There should be a dry air slot in there too, hopefully, which will see sun come out and drier air after the relentless wet signal.

Surfwise, a durable small S swell signal hangs on into Sat at small levels but the dominant swells trains will be from the E  as the surface low tracks south from Fri, dragging an E’ly fetch on it’s southern flank with it. 

This will aim up more directly into temperate NSW through Fri into Sat, with an increase in E/NE swell as a result and a decrease through the day in our sub-tropical region.

Expect a morning peak in size in the 3-5ft range in SEQLD, 4-5ft in NENSW, with size easing during the day. Lighter SW winds in SEQLD compared to NENSW, but through the day they will ease as the low moves south away from the sub-tropics. 

There’ll be a slow roll-off in size Sun though with plenty of leftover energy. We should see plenty of 3-4ft sets through the morning, easing back to 3ft during the day. Winds will tend W through the day, possibly W/NW up in SEQLD as winds get a pre-frontal tilt to them. We’ll finesse the wind f/cast on Fri.

Next week (May 30 onwards)

A cold front consolidates with the remnants of the low Mon and winds swing from SW to pre-frontal NW, possibly NNW during Mon.

We’re looking at leftover E swell, in the 2-3ft range, with the possibility of some S swell in the mix, depending on how the remnants of the low behave. A last pulse of E/SE swell is likely Mon from a fetch of E winds off the North Island feeding into the low on Sun. This fetch is better aimed at temperate NSW, but we should see a few 3ft sets later Mon, easing quickly into Tues.

Following that, a cold outbreak will bring a few days of stiff W’ly winds. Thats likely to see small surf through Tues and Wed.

Models are still struggling to resolve the cold outbreak in the Tasman Sea, but there are good odds we will see some juicy S swell, possibly building later Wed or through Thurs.

More S swell is almost certainly on the horizon into the first week of Winter as strong fronts push into the Tasman. We’ll need some time to make any definitive calls there but we’ll know more by Friday so check in then and we’ll have a fresh update.

See you then.