An advancing trough from the south-west later this week will freshen NE winds Thursday and Friday, ahead of a weekend of gusty northerlies.
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An anchored synoptic pattern will maintain plenty of trade swell across all coasts through next week and into the following weekend.
So, we’re now well and truly on the backside of our fun E’ly swell, and residual energy will pad out most of Thursday and Friday.
So, we look like we’re close to the top of the initial swell cycle from our lovely little weather system that developed north of New Zealand last week.
So, I’ve been tracking the much-discussed incoming E/NE swell for two weeks now (first mentioned in these Forecaster Notes on Nov 3rd), and since then the system has upgraded and downgraded itself many times.
So yeah - we’ve still got a decent E/SE groundswell on the way for early next week.
The upshot at this point in time is that the weekend will kick off with a small trade swell.
This system will be a major source of swell for us over the weekend and into the first half of the following week.
The Coral Sea ridge will weaken slightly into the weekend and contract to the north, which will in turn weaken wind speeds across the coast.
Before we get stuck into surf size estimates, we also need to look at the other dominant factor for the entire week - persistent SE winds.