South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 22nd November)

Best Days: Thurs: smaller surf with light winds. Very late Fri/Sat/Sun: rebuilding E/NE thru' E'ly swell with mainly light winds. Next week: small persistent trade swell. 

Recap: Monday’s strong E’ly swell eased through Tuesday, early 3-5ft sets across exposed coasts (smaller along the points) easing throughout the day and dropping to 3ft+ today. Winds have been mainly fresh SE across the coast though pockets of early light S/SW winds have occurred in a few areas.

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This week (Nov 23rd - 24th)

So, we’re now well and truly on the backside of our E’ly groundswell, and residual energy will pad out most of Thursday and Friday. Size should manage 2-3ft+ at open beaches in Far Northern NSW on Thursday, a fraction smaller across SE Qld and the Mid North Coast open beaches, and smaller again across the regional points. 

The current SE regime will ease back into Thursday as the synoptic flow weakens, which means we’ll see a slightly longer duration and broader coverage of light variable winds in the morning, with the afternoon SE breezes not coming in as strong as the last few days. The lack of a synoptic offshore will likely maintain lumpy conditions about open beaches. 

Friday morning will probably see a minor decrease in size from Thursday, however we have a swell increase pegged for the afternoon. This pulse will originate from the head of a broad but ultimately moderate-strength E’ly fetch, around the top of a Tasman high, feeding into a trough adjacent the East Coast. 

At the same time, an E’ly dip will form between the Qld coast and New Caledonia (on Thursday), strengthening the E’ly squeeze between it and the Tasman high. 

Both sources are expected kick up wave heights from the E/NE thru' E on Saturday, but we should see early forerunners late Friday with sets across most open SE Qld and Far Northern NSW beaches pushing into the 2-3ft+ range in the few hours before dark (perhaps a lag on this across the Mid North Coast). I’ll update in the comments of these Forecaster Notes as more info comes to hand.

Friday’s winds should mirror that of Thursday, that is early light and variable trending light to moderate onshore throughout the day. 

This weekend (Nov 25th - 26th)

The weekend looks OK for some small fun waves though onshore winds are still a risk. 

The E’ly dip is expected to fluctuate in strength but never really develop properly, which will cap surf size. Wave heights should hold in and around the 3ft+ mark at most open beaches both days, and it'll be tidally susceptible too. The models are showing slightly larger wave heights across SE Qld on Sunday though to my eyes I reckon there probably won’t be much difference between the two.

Winds are hard to pick for the weekend.

In general, most locations should see a light variable flow early, trending moderate onshore throughout the days - SE across northern regions on Saturday tending E’ly on Sunday, with southern regions a little more counter clockwise (E’ly Sat, NE Sun). So we certainly aren’t likely to experience epic conditions but there should be some good fun beachies and sand bottom points at your disposal.

Next week (Nov 27th onwards)

Our small, low confidence S’ly swell for Monday in Northern NSW (from a trough SE of Tasmania over the weekend) has been wiped off the charts. As such we’ll continue to look to the east and north-east for long term swell prospects. 

The good news is that we’ve got plenty of activity expected through the Northern Tasman Sea, stretching out into the South Pacific. Active trades will keep most East Coast beaches humming for all of next week and the adjacent weekend, and the good news is that Northern NSW will pick up the most size due to its proximity to the fetch source. 

Most open beaches in SE Qld and Northern NSW should hover in and around the 3ft mark for the first half of the week, easing to 2-3ft through the second half. This size is for exposed spots so expect smaller surf running down the points. 

We may also see a more significant swell generating system develop closer to the mainland mid-next week, but this is more likely to benefit Southern NSW than Northern NSW (and is only low confidence right now anyway). I’ll provide more info on this in Friday’s update.