South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th November)

Best Days: Most days should have fun waves. Best over the weekend with a new S'ly groundswell in Northern NSW (though only small in SE Qld), then later next week with a building trade swell - followed by a large E'ly swell from Saturday afternoon through the following Wednesday.  

Recap: Persistent S’ly swells over the last few days have favoured the SE Qld outer points, though surf size has been small at these locations. Winds were temporarily W/SW across a few locations both mornings, but SE breezes have developed throughout the days.

This weekend (Nov 11th - 12th)

No change to the weekend forecast. 

A mix of two swells are expected both days. Interestingly, the small low forming along the trough line in the northern Tasman Sea yesterday was ramped up significantly over the last few model runs, however it’s aimed up towards New Caledonia. As such, this strengthening trend will largely go to waste across our region.

Projected surf size across SE Qld may be a little higher than Wednesday’s estimates (especially across the Sunshine Coast) but on the balance we’re more than likely looking at a small S/SE swell originating from a modest fetch developing off the West Coast of New Zealand’s North Island. 

Open beaches north of the border should rebuild to 2-3ft into Saturday afternoon (smaller earlier), with smaller waves down the points, and it should persist at this size range into Sunday. Moderate SE winds are expected on Saturday but we’ll see periods of early W/SW winds through the morning. Slightly less wind strength is expected on Sunday meaning the morning period of light offshores should persist a little longer. 

A more dominant southerly groundswell will also grace the Northern NSW coast over the weekend. I’m still a little cautious on size: our in-house model is calling 4-6ft sets at south facing beaches across the Coffs Harbour region around lunchtime, but it doesn’t quite add up to me - despite the responsible system south of Tasmania on Thursday showing strong winds and a broad, focused fetch, its alignment was still well away from our swell window.  

Probably assisting surf projections is a slightly more southerly latitude of the storm track, which allows it to spread up the NSW coast much more efficiently than a frontal passage immediately south of Tasmania. 

Anyway, I’m going to stick close to Wednesday’s estimates of 4-5ft surf at reliable south facing beaches south of Byron on Saturday (expect a delay in this swell in the Far North until the afternoon). As per usually, beaches not open to the south will be much smaller.

This swell will probably come in very small across SE Qld, around 1-2ft across the outer points and most beaches, with occasional 2-3ft sets at exposed northern ends. So, no bigger than the pre-existing S/SE swell. 

Sunday morning is probably the best chance to capitalise on both swells - at least in northern regions anyway - as there’s some doubt as to whether they’ll be in the water at first light Saturday. Expect the S/SE swell to linger through Sunday, but the long period S’ly swell to ease steadily in size throughout the day. Early morning should still show nicely across south facing beaches south of Byron though, with sets in the 3-4ft range. 

Next week (Nov 13th onwards)

Small, residual swells are expected from Monday to Wednesday next week, mainly out of the south-east though we’ll also see some small trade swell in the mix later Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge firms through the northern Tasman Sea. Expect mainly light variable winds and sea breezes each day.

Long term swell prospects look excellent.

A stationary blocking high in the Tasman early next week will develop a modest trade flow across its northern flank, and, as has been discussed since last Friday, we are likely to see a small tropical disturbance near New Caledonia mid-week drop to the south as an easterly dip, forming an impressive subtropical low during Thursday and Friday. 

This system will be a major source of swell for us over the weekend and into the first half of the following week. Initially, we’ll see a small to moderate increase in trade swell later next week, but on Saturday afternoon the groundswell is expected to kick in properly, delivering 6ft+ sets out of the east across all open coasts. 

Even better - the slow moving nature of this system means we’ll see strong swell persist in this size range through until about the following Wednesday. The low is currently modelled to track south into the Tasman Sea, which means we’ll see the swell direction swing E/SE and maybe SE, and this may have some size ramifications for SE Qld, especially the Sunshine Coast’s protected points. 

However, at the moment we are on track for four consecutive days of strong swell out of the eastern quadrant, which is certainly a great outlook for this time of the year. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a few embedded pulses within this period that punch higher than these figures too (mainly across Northern NSW), but we’ve got a whole week of analysing the charts ahead, to pinpoint the specifics.

See you Monday!