South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 8th November)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun: small clean waves at the outer SE Qld points. Sat/Sun: light winds on the Mid North Coast with a mix of swells. Next Thurs onwards: potentially large E'ly swell. 

Recap: Tuesday delivered a brief window of light winds in SE Qld, with a peaky leftover easing east swell on offer. Gusty S/SE winds kicked in throughout the day, and have persisted today with isolated pockets of SW winds early morning. The surf has correspondingly built from the south though exposed spots are terribly wind affected, and the protected points are much smaller. The southern Gold Coast has the best options with clean peaky waves in and around the 2ft mark. 

This week (Nov 9th - 10th)

No change to the outlook for the rest of the week.

We’ve got a mix of southerly swells on the cards, including some long period energy due Thursday (currently making its way up the Southern NSW coast this afternoon). Winds will remain fresh SE for much of the period under the influence of a firm ridge, so there really won’t be many options away from the protected points. A handful of locations may see brief periods of lighter SW winds but they’ll be isolated and short lived at best.

As for wave heights, Thursday will see the most size with occasional 4-5ft, maybe 4-6ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron. However thanks to the strong southerly swell direction it’ll be a lot smaller elsewhere. Protected southern corners will be very small. 

North of the border, there’s no real size on the cards for the protected points, which will offer the best conditions. Outer points should see 2ft+ sets with larger but bumpier 3-4ft+ surf at exposed northern ends. Expect smaller surf across the Sunshine Coast, though there’ll also be a small degree of short range S/SE swell in the mix too, originating from the local ridge. 

Friday will then essentially be a smaller version of Thursday.

This weekend (Nov 11th - 12th)

The Coral Sea ridge will weaken slightly into the weekend and contract to the north, which will in turn weaken wind speeds across the coast.

We’re still looking at moderate to fresh SE winds north of the border, but there’s a greater chance for a slightly longer period of early SW winds, with a little more coastal coverage (though not all locations will see these winds, mainly the southern Gold Coast). 

South from Ballina, wind speeds will become much lighter and most of the Mid North Coast should see light variable winds and sea breezes. Though, surface conditions will probably be a little lumpy and leftover. 

As for surf, we’ll see a fresh pulse of southerly groundswell build across Northern NSW during Saturday, though the early morning will see much smaller residual energy. This new swell will originate from a strong series of fronts traversing the waters south of Tasmania on Thursday. I am a little cautious on the predicted size - the storm track is very zonal (west east) but interestingly, I think the fetch width and region of intensification is a little better positioned than Monday’s model runs.

As such, I have marginally increased my size forecast for Saturday with south facing beaches south of Byron likely to pick up anywhere between 3-5ft sets after lunch. It’ll be smaller in the morning, and beaches not open to the south will also be much smaller as the swell builds into the afternoon (expect a mid-late afternoon arrival in the Far North). 

Also in the mix over the weekend will be a small increase in average S/SE swell, originating from a small low forming along the trough line in the Northern Tasman Sea on Thursday and Friday. Unfortunately, this fetch will be poorly aligned, will track E/SE away from us and wind speeds won’t be terribly strong, but the process will activate a secondary S/SE fetch off the west coast of New Zealand’s North Island and this will provide some useful trade-like swell in the 2-3ft range at most open beaches. 

Size from both sources will peak overnight Saturday and ease slowly through Sunday, with similar winds. 

Next week (Nov 13th onwards)

Early next week looks a little ordinary, with easing swells from the weekend. 

Long term prospects still show some interesting tropical developments near the Fijian region around Wednesday of next week, with a deepening E’ly dip now showing up across most of the models, forming an impressive low in the Northern Tasman Sea by Thursday (see chart below).

This has given much more credibility to the changes of a decent swell event occurring, though we still need quite a few days to pin down the specifics. At this stage expect a large E'ly groundswell towards the end of next week and over the following weekend, early size indications are in the 6ft+ range at exposed coasts, though an upgrade is possible too. Certainly a time frame to put in the diary for now, anyway.

More on this in Friday’s update.