A more classic looking summer chart to start next week with high pressure in the Tasman and low pressure centres near New Caledonia and in the South Pacific slot, with a healthy E’ly tradewind fetch extending across most of the Central and Southern Coral Seas.
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The tropics is in an active state with multiple low centres expected along the monsoon trough as it responds to a phase of the MJO passing into Australian longitudes. Still plenty of uncertainty there, with any meaningful swell subject to extremely low confidence in specifics.
Multiple low pressure systems are suggested on long range model guidance, potentially tropical cyclones which could deliver large E’ly swells.
Either way, it’s looking like our eastern swell window is about to get into the swing of things and finally resume its regular summer programming.
The approaching southerly change should be getting close to the Qld border around dawn..
We’ve got plenty more swell on the way, and much better winds on Tuesday as the synoptic pattern relaxes, allowing a light variable airstream to envelop the coast.
The best low for Northern NSW/SE Qld surfers is already sitting just north of New Zealand, and is generating E’ly swells that will feed into Sunday’s mix and provide solid 4ft waves across most exposed coasts, holding into Monday.
The models have moved around quite a bit for the short term. But there are positives to glean.
We've got a large, windy outlook from Friday through the weekend.
During this time, models are suggesting a small trough of low pressure will bud off the inland low and drift into the Coral Sea off the SEQLD Coast, which enhances the SE flow through SEQLD, extending down into NENSW by Tues, although winds will remain E/NE-NE south of Coffs.