Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 22nd Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small amounts of E/NE swell filtering down from tradewinds provide a small, background signal over the weekend
• Mix off S’ly swells Fri with easing S-SE winds
• Small mixed bag Sat with an a’noon bump in new S swell- light SE winds for the a'noon
• Better quality S swell persists Sun with light/variable morning winds, tending N/NE in the a’noon
• Small E/NE swells continue next week bumping up a notch Tues/Wed
• Small mixed bag of swell sources into the medium term- enough for a grovel most days

Recap

Swell from the E yesterday morning supplied some clean 2ft surf with the occ. 3ft set. A stiff S’ly change then pushed through the region in the morning with the clean conditions confined to sheltered corners and some short range S swell being whipped up through the late a’noon. A brief window of cleanish conditions under SW winds was mostly confined to the Northern Beaches with a mix of small E/NE swell and S swell to 3-4ft offering up a few options. Most other beaches were wind affected with a quality wave hard to find. The S’ly winds have bought much cooler conditions after a spring heatwave. 

No great quality but enough energy for a surf

This weekend (Sep 23-24)

High pressure drifts over Southern NSW tomorrow, with winds generally easing although we’ll likely still see a S’ly slant to winds across S facing beaches. Morning land breezes across areas north of the Harbour should get most of the way towards cleaning up surface conditions. Winds will tend light E’ly through the a’noon so surface conditions should be workable if you aren’t too fussy. S’ly swells will ease back from today with  around 2-3ft on offer tomorrow morning, mixed with a small signal of persistent E/NE to 2ft. Slightly better quality S swell should add 3ft sets in the a’noon. 

That pulse should hold in for Sun with light/variable morning winds extending well into the day before NE seabreezes kick in. Nothing amazing on offer but a few workable 2-3ft beachies around across S exposed breaks, biased towards the low end. Worth a paddle if you can find a decent bank. 

Next week (Sep 25 onwards)

Not a great deal of action on the radar for next week but enough swell energy from various sources to get a surf most days. High pressure elongates and drifts NE into the Tasman with a light NW- N’ly flow expected for Mon morning and a small mixed bag of leftover S and E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics. That should top out around 2ft at open beaches- enough for a grovel. N’lies look to freshen in the a’noon.

A tradewind band thickens up in the South Pacific over the weekend and tilts more E/NE as winds feed into a long trough. That should see E/NE swell bump up a notch into Tues and Wed. Travel distance and modest swell periods will shave off most of the size but we’ll see 2ft, occ. 3ft sets albeit with long waits for sets. Flukey winds around a trough on Tues with early light winds tending variable to light SE through the day being lost likely. We’ll finesse that outlook on Mon.

Light/mod S-SE winds Wed with some small S swell likely to develop through the day. A brief fetch out of Cook Strait Mon, may add some small E/SE energy into the mix. None of these swell sources on their own look strong but together it should maintain some fun, peaky beach break options through Wed into Thurs. 

We may see a stronger front linked to a robust low late next week bring a moderate pulse of S swell Fri into Sat. The high pressure belt is now looking mobile, typical for spring, with a NE movement into the Tasman bringing N’ly episodes, potentially generating some NE windswell next weekend for Grand Final day. 

If you can stay nimble there’ll be enough small options to keep wet into the coming week.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!