Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 9th August)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: fun S'ly swell with good conditions. Sat PM/Sun/Mon: strong but highly directional south swell; wide variation in size but clean with offshore winds. Biggest and best in the Hunter.

Recap: A decent south swell built through Tuesday, starting very small at dawn but reaching 3-4ft at south facing beaches in the afternoon, with bigger sets across the Hunter region - pretty much bang on with forecast expectations. Size levelled out in this range overnight and for much of today, if anything a slight easing trend into the afternoon. Winds were offshore all day yesterday, and up until lunchtime today, when a moderate southerly briefly pushed up the coast. This southerly breeze is now tending light and variable for the late session today.

This week (August 10th - 11th)

The current southerly swell will ease overnight but we have a renewal of S/SE swell due very late Thursday and into Friday.

However there’s been a minor downgrade in model strength since Monday's notes were preparedy (and a slight tweak in alignment away from our swell window) so I’m going to marginally pull back wave height estimations for the rest of the week. The downgrade is also resulting in a slightly later arrival time of this new swell too.

In fact, the new swell due very late Thursday (at the earliest) probably won’t provide so much of an increase across the coast, as arrest the otherwise easing trend. South facing beaches should maintain 2-3ft sets on Thursday morning (bigger in the Hunter smaller elsewhere) but the new swell is likely to only deliver occasional 2-3ft sets at best late afternoon, and they’ll be less consistent than what we have seen over the last few days.

During the middle of the day and into the early afternoon we may see a slack period between swells, where it’s a little smaller. However it’ll be clean with moderate W/NW winds. 

On Friday this new swell will peak early and then ease throughout the day. We should also see a slightly smaller undercurrent of SE swell originating from a seperate fetch that formed off the SW tip of New Zealand over the last few days, but in general we’re looking at a repeat of Thursday into Friday morning, with 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches, and smaller surf elsewhere but bigger waves across the Hunter (3-4ft+). A slight easing will probably occur into the afternoon.

Friday’s looking generally quite clean with light to moderate offshore winds.

This weekend (August 12th - 13th)

Saturday will start out on the small side, with minor residual swell from the SE across open beaches, likely 1-2ft and clean with moderate westerly winds. 

A series of vigorous fronts will exit eastern Bass Strait from Friday through Saturday. At first glance they still look too zonal (i.e. west-east in alignment) to favour our coast with reliable surf, however the strength of these systems - particularly Saturday morning’s front - may override some of the directional deficiencies. 

So right now, in addition to the small residual SE swell on Saturday morning, we’re probably looking at an equal level of mid range S’ly swell at a handful of south swell magnets. 

A stronger S’ly groundswell (from the bigger system mentioned above) is then expected to glance the coast late Saturday (South Coast thru’ Sydney), probably reaching the Hunter around dinnertime, and then persisting into Sunday morning and possibly hold throughout the day. In fact a strong tertiary front pushing from just under Tasmania later Saturday afternoon may provide another pulse for our region late Sunday and into Monday morning.

Estimating the precise arrival times is almost as difficult as pinning down a likely size range, as there is no doubt that we’ll see a huge variation in wave heights across the coast. 

At this stage I’m getting more confident that we’ll see 3ft+ sets across a handful of south facing beaches very late Saturday and throughout Sunday, and the Hunter often does particularly well with these funky swells and could easily rake in 4-5ft, even 4-6ft bombs.

But, most beaches - i.e. those lacking a high degree of southerly exposure - will be significantly smaller, and southern ends are likely to be close to flat. So don't look at the top line numbers as they'll probably be affecting only a small percentage of the coastal margin.

As for conditions, it’ll be clean too with westerly winds continuing. 

Let’s have another look on Friday with the latest model guidance. 

Next week (August 14th onwards)

Monday should continue the theme of strong but highly directional south swell for reliable south swell magnets, much along the lines of what is expected Sunday. Size wil however ease throughout the day.

Westerly winds are expected Monday morning ahead of a late S/SW change that will be associated with a fast moving cut off low/front that will renew a brief pulse of moderate S’ly swell for Tuesday, easing Wednesday. It doesn’t look anything amazing at this stage though, maybe some 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches.

The Fijian system I mentioned in Monday’s notes has been slightly weakened over the last few days, though it is still hanging around the tropical region so I won’t completely write it off just yet. 

Otherwise, the next swell event looks to be a pre-frontal N’ly windswell mid-week ahead of a strong S’ly groundswell later next week and into the weekend. More on this in Friday’s update.