OK, it’s going to be a wild week so lets look at the moving parts and sketch out the order of events, whilst acknowledging that it will be a highly dynamic outlook requiring fine tuning as the troughs, front, upper trough and expected eventual storm force surface low all interact.
Primary tabs
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/28/couple-smaller-days-ahead-storm-force
freeride76
Monday, 28 March 2022
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/25/tricky-troughy-outlook-the-weekend-major
freeride76
Friday, 25 March 2022
This is then augmented by a major front pushing into the Tasman, merging with the surface low to create a large area of low pressure in the Tasman.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/23/onshore-winds-setting-in-few-small
freeride76
Wednesday, 23 March 2022
The trough is connected to a parent low pushing through the lower Tasman, but the combination of short period SE and longer period S swells will be marred by an onshore flow for most of this week and the weekend.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/21/lots-funky-wind-changes-week-small-surf
freeride76
Monday, 21 March 2022
In the short run and an elongated “bubble” high sits along the NSW coast through tomorrow, bringing a cracker of a day with light offshore breezes which will tend N/NE through the day.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/18/swell-the-s-weekend-and-next-week-some
freeride76
Friday, 18 March 2022
That front then forms a low, which becomes slow moving as it tracks NE towards the North Island. Swell is incoming from the front and the low, generating swell from the southern quadrant over the weekend and into next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/16/improving-conditions-through-the-end-the
freeride76
Wednesday, 16 March 2022
Bit of an upgrade now for Sunday as a parent low tracks into the Tasman Friday with a much healthier fetch fetch of S to SSW winds extending through the lower Tasman.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/14/lots-punchy-ese-swell-ahead-conditions
freeride76
Monday, 14 March 2022
The current high cell in the Tasman has a trough of low pressure perched atop it, maintaining an E’ly fetch at a southerly latitude- roughly due East of Sydney.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/11/plenty-solid-options-sat-easing-sun
freeride76
Friday, 11 March 2022
The next high pressure system moves into the lower Tasman Mon, at a very southerly latitude, even by La Niña standards.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/09/solid-surf-slowly-easing-the-weekend
freeride76
Wednesday, 9 March 2022
The squeeze between a 1001 hPa low off the South Coast and 1030 hPa high moving through the Eastern Bight is producing a line of gales off the NSW South Coast, extending northwards up to the Hunter and southwards into the Tasman Sea.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2022/03/07/another-wild-week-ahead-low-forms-coast
Another wild week ahead as a low forms off coast tomorrow, bringing plenty of wind and swell (again)
freeride76
Monday, 7 March 2022
This fetch provides a pulse of S to S/SE swell before another low forms in the trough line off the NSW Central Coast Tues, rapidly re-invigorating a robust S to S/SE fetch off the South to Central Coast before slowly drifting off to the SE later this week.
