Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 13th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Building E/SE swell Tues with onshore winds, best AM
• Chunky E/SE swell peaking Wed, with winds easing PM
• Lots of punchy E/SE swell Thurs with good winds AM, slowly easing during the day
• Fun leftover peaks Fri with light winds
• Small surf Sat and Sun with better winds Sun
• Period of small surf expected through next week

Recap

Plenty of swell energy on offer over the weekend, with conditions generally on the improve over the break. Saturday saw surf just over the 4-5ft mark across most of the region, with a few bigger 6ft+ sets on offer select magnets. Light morning breezes tended to light sea breezes in the a’noon. Size dipped back a notch into the 3-4ft range Sunday with light land breezes tending to more light sea breezes. Today has seen surf ease into the 2-3ft range with clean Autumn conditions offering up some shapely waves, with water quality and sand banks both improving. All in all, quite a few tasty (and big!) waves to be had across most of the f/cast region since Friday.

Some very shapely options to start the week

This week (Mar 14-18)

The current high cell in the Tasman has a trough of low pressure perched atop it, maintaining an E’ly fetch at a southerly latitude- roughly due East of Sydney (see below). A stronger high at at even more Southerly latitude is South-west of Tasmania and tracking into the lower Tasman to replace the current high cell. This will reinforce the E’ly fetch and maintain a weak onshore flow on the coast. This pattern slowly eases later in the week with an area of high pressure expected to develop over the Central NSW coast ,bringing light winds. 

In the short run and the trend will be up through tomorrow as the well aimed and close fetch generates increasing E to E/SE swell for the region.  Winds will be from the same direction and Tuesday is expected to see the maximum strength for the synoptic wind. That should see SE winds run the 15 knot range, with a period of lighter SW breezes inshore confined to areas north of the Harbour and the South Coast. Expect surf in the 3ft range early to build into the 3-4ft range during the day.

Wednesday sees swell from the proximate E’ly fetch peak and we’re looking at some chunky surf in the 4-5ft range. Consistency should be good with the fetch so close and winds are expected to ease through the day, as the ridge along the coast slackens. High res models show a region of slack winds close to the coast early which should translate to morning land breezes, before winds kick up mid-morning and then lay down later in the a’noon. Expect plenty of fun, chunky peaks on Wed.

Thursday morning looks good. Land breezes are almost certain through the morning session, giving that classic Autumn surface texture we all love. Surf should hold in at a chunky 3-5ft from the E, before slowly easing back during the day, with winds tending to light E/NE seabeeezes during the a’noon. If you’ve only got one day, then pencil in Thursday.

Light winds round off the working week as the dominant high tracks near New Zealand in a weakening phase. Light NW winds should extend well into the morning before tending to light NE sea breezes. Swell will have eased right back from it’s mid week peak but there should be plenty of fun peak about in the 2-3ft range. In addition to the close fetch SE winds near the South Island should add some more SE swell to the mix Friday.

A fetch will have been bubbling away near the North Island and down into Cook Strait through the latter half of this week. It looks quite compact and not overly strong but it should add a few small E/SE swell trains into the mix. Friday looks fun for a few small beachies with good conditions.

This weekend (Mar 19-20)

Small surf on the menu this weekend. A S’ly change is expected- with no real strength behind it- as a trough moves up the NSW South Coast overnight Friday. There is a parent low moving East of Tasmania during this time. Saturday should offer a small blend of E/SE swell in the 2ft range. At this stage early SW winds will tend SE through the day so early will be best.

More small surf Sunday as a weak signal of SE to E/SE swell holds in the 2ft range. The trough quickly moves north ands stalls, leading to a light and variable, tending N’ly flow, at this stage. Small, clean surf should be on offer Sunday.

Next week (Mar21 onwards)

The parent low tracks NE into the Tasman later Sunday and into early next week, but it’s Surf potential is quite limited at this stage. Winds are weak and not well aimed back at the East Coast, so we need to keep expectations very low at this stage. An elongated area of high pressure sits off the NSW coast , with weak pressure gradients expected. 

That should continue the pleasant Autumnal conditions through early next week with Mon and Tues seeing light winds and small amounts of South quadrant swell. It’s not going to amount to much more than 2ft at S facing beaches later Mon, holding in the 1-2ft range Tues. Perfect for beginners.

Later next week and not a great deal is expected to be happening surf-wise. A weak N’ly flow along the coast and no real swell generating systems of note should see a period of babyfood extend from the middle of next week into the weekend.

Looking to the west and the next approaching high is travelling at a much more northerly latitude, with a deep low tracking through the Southern Ocean, without being blocked. That suggests we may start to see some action from the southern swell window as the La Niña influenced Summer blocking pattern finally begins to break down. Thats just a heads up for now, we’ll track those developments through the week’s f/cast notes.

Check back Wed for the latest update.