Another wild week ahead as a low forms off coast tomorrow, bringing plenty of wind and swell (again)
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 7th Mar)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Mix of S and E swell Tues, with an even stronger pulse of S swell PM and strong SW winds developing around Tasman low
- Very large S to S/SE swell Wed, with strong SW to S'ly winds
- Slow easing of still large S/SE swell Thurs into Fri with easing winds
- Small blend of E and S/SE swells Sat, smaller Sun, with light winds both days
- Small E swells through next week, building into Wed/Thurs
Recap
Lots of swell energy over the weekend as E’ly swell from mostly medium range sources made landfall. Saturday saw size in the 6-8ft range with a light N’ly flow, easing into Sunday with size in the 4-6ft range and S’ly winds confining clean conditions to more protected locations. Today has seen a more onshore E/SE to SE flow with residual size in the 4-6ft range across the region, smaller 4ft on the Hunter. Another highly active week is ahead, dive in for details.
Very scrappy today, major swell incoming this week
This week (Mar 7-11)
An unstable, troughy pattern persists across most of the East Coast with a large (1027hPa) high near New Zealand anchoring a long S/SE fetch from the South Island to Central Tasman Sea. This fetch provides a pulse of S to S/SE swell before another low forms in the trough line off the NSW Central Coast Tues, rapidly re-invigorating a robust S to S/SE fetch off the South to Central Coast before slowly drifting off to the SE later this week. This fetch is enhanced by a pressure gradient squeeze with another strong high currently moving East in the Bight. Meanwhile, out in the South Pacific a sub-tropical low is deepening well E of the North Island and while this low is better aimed at the sub-tropics there will be some longer period E swell arriving from this source.
In the short run, and a dynamic day is on the cards for tomorrow as the low spins up. Major models seem in broad agreement that the low centre will be just North-east of Sydney, driving an initial burst of onshore E to E/SE winds along the coast. These winds may tend more W to NW from the Hunter Northwards, but it’s going to be dependent on the position of the low.
North of Seal Rocks is a much higher probability for offshore winds during Tues, especially during the morning.
Plenty of leftover E swell in the 3-5ft range is expected, along with S/SE swell from the current fetch in the 4ft range.
Expect conditions to rapidly become wild and woolly as S/SW to SW winds intensify to strong wind, possibly low end gale status.
Wild and wooly conditions continue to escalate Wed as the low deepens with gales to severe gales developing along the NSW coast south of the Mid North Coast. These gales extend northwards during the day, further enlarging wave heights. How big? Expect surf in the 6ft range during the morning to push up into the 10ft range during the day. With strong to gale force SW to S winds, it’ll be a day for the most protected locations only.
The latter part of the week sees surf slowly easing as the low moves away towards New Zealand. Thursday will be big from the S, with surf in the 6-8ft range. Better angled swell trains from the S/SE generated by a long fetch of S/SE winds feeding into the low will arrive during the a’noon. This will help refraction into more protected spots, which will still be needed due to mod/fresh SW to S winds. They’ll be moderating during the day.
By Friday we’ll see a more pronounced easing trend in play, with surf dropping down from 3-5ft down to 3-4ft, bigger on the Hunter. Light morning winds will tend to light SE to E breezes in the a’noon. There’ll be an underlying E swell in the water too, with some 3ft sets in the mix. With a settling trend in wind and surf there should be plenty of fun options Fri, as long as you can deal with some less than optimal water quality.
This weekend (Mar 12-13)
Small blend of swells expected this weekend.
The dominant S/SE swell should hold some 3ft sets through the morning on Sat, easing back further through the day, with small amounts of mid period E swell in the mix. Light E’ly winds are expected, with a good chance for a morning land breeze. Expect plenty of fun beach breaks, sand banks permitting.
Sunday drops back further, to be one of the smaller days for a fair while, in what has been an extended period of elevated wave heights. A new high pressure system slips east of Tasmania on Sunday, setting up a weak ridge, which will see light E’ly winds continue. Surfwise we’ll see longer period E’ly swell from the South Pacific supplying some infrequent 3ft sets early, with leftover S/SE swell in the 2-3ft range. All sources will ease through the day, leaving surf below the 2ft mark for the first time in quite a while!
Next week (Mar14 onwards)
A more settled week ahead next week, by the standards of the last few weeks anyway. The basic blocking pattern of high pressure in the Tasman maintains a light onshore flow across the region, with good odds for land breezes to develop overnight into Mon.
We’re looking at a small blend of long range E’ly swell and some leftover S/SE energy through Mon into Tuesday. Both sources will top out around 2ft on Mon, with a slight uptick on Tues.
Expect small fun beach breaks both days.
By Wed we have a broad area of low pressure drifting down from the sub-tropics to keep an eye on. It looks quite weak and lacking structure this far out, with a weak but well aimed fetch of E’ly winds likely to kick wave heights up a notch during Wed and into Thurs.
Longer term and troughiness in the Tasman Sea offers up potential for more low pressure development later next week, although it’s too early to offer any definitive assessments.
Check back Wed for a full update.
Comments
An incredible run of swell, even considering how good the last two years have been.
It's enough to silence the old boys about the 'good old days'.
Haha no chance! The old timers will never admit it.
You could count the days under 3ft here this summer on one hand.
Soon enough, when we're back in flat spells that drag for months, we're going to look back on these last two summers like they were an illusion. Incredible run of swell.
East Coast NZ must have record numbers as well...what size can they expect from that South Pac low?
Been living and surfing in my neck of the woods for about 40 years. I think we reminisce more about the lack of bank quality compared to the 'good old days' rather than swell consistency. Here it is probably due to sand mining and destruction of dune system. Notwithstanding - the last 2 years have been the best swell, wind and bank quality/consistency here I can recall - by far. Alas - the banks have now been washed away and the covid work from home crew remain to fight it out on the marginal few we have left.
Looking forward to the next few months - generally the best time of year.
Times 2 Fraz. Alas, I think dunecare has been part of the problem. Those stable dunes are a disaster.
Agreed Fraz. Much bigger time period with shit banks AND longer to repair. All this rain will wash out the creeks and hopefully replace sand and create Banks. For a bit. Surfing crowded reefs with take-off spots as big as a backyard pool is not therapeutic.
Im from the so called good old days and believe me the last two years have
been without doubt the best most consistent surf I can remember in almost
50 years of surfing. Couldnt come at a better time either as I normally go OS at
least 3 times annually just bummed ive been robbed a couple of years of surfing
good waves when I still had half a chance to surf them with a degree of dignity.
I think last years memorable bigger swells were accompanied by good winds. Not so much this year but more swell.
Hands down the best two summers of waves I can remember .. shame about the water now filthy brown, full of sewage, trees, logs, building materials and even dead cows washing up at a few beaches .. this next big swell will wash up more surprises no doubt..
Yep incredible run of swell, literally only a handful of days in the past two years that you couldn't surf.
Incredible!
Wow!! Insane!
With the morning low tide I walked around the rocks at McCauleys Beach to survey the slip damage from below. It ain't pretty, and I dare say it'll get uglier before the rain stops.
Small land slip at the end of Corbett Ave. Just feet away from the guardrail and driveway.
Another pile from a slip, this time under Woodland Ave.
Looking up to where the reserve is in Woodland Ave. Video would've been better as the whole face was slowly moving, fist-sized pieces of clay slumping from their position then falling to the next perch.
Bottom right shows evidence of a larger slump.
End of Woodland Ave. Took the same photo here yesterday and the land had slipped a bit. Today it's fallen six or so feet down.
Hard to see but there's another fresh rotational slide in the scarp at the very northern end of the beach, with another fresh face of clay exposed.
Bushes jutting over the cliff shown earlier, and next to the slip in the photos before. I don't expect this will be here tomorrow.
This would all be deemed coastal erosion, however in large part it has little to do with coastal processes. The cliffs at north McCauleys can get eroded by large waves and high tides, but that's not what's happening this time.
The damage now is due to extended rain causing the clay - and by extension, the cliff face - to lose shape.
I think the major problem here is the loss of vegetation. There would have been a range of small coastal native trees ands shrubs throught this area originally, but was cleared out and developed.
Love your work Stu. All that water is forcing apart the grains and cracks in the rock and soil. A slope or cliff that held itself up against gravity when dry, can become very unstable with the reduction in internal friction + added weight of water.
I wouldn't expect it to retreat much further as the bedded siltstones and coal will be pretty solid overall.
Touch wood - but Keep an eye on the Escarpment, might see a few fresh rockfalls from the sandstone in these conditions
Soil profile above the rock in the images above could still regress further back though which will be making some of those home owners nervous.
Like a sheer sandstone collapse..?
There's been a few bigger slips further up in the foothills, but only mud and topsoil.
Meanwhile, the damage to the local mtb trails is enough to make a fairy weep.
Not sure I follow Stu? I was referring to the soil profile above the exposed rock on the coast e.g. your second photo of Corbett Ave with water discharging through the soil above the rock. That profile is wet and over-steep and will regress further back.
Definitely potential for larger rock falls and slides up in the escarpment as Chris said. Lots of old landslide debris on those slopes as well which can remobilise in those conditions.
The trails will have copped a hammering, be some major scouring…. hows the body holding up for some repair work?!
Nah, I was replying to Chris - comment above yours - about the potential for rockfalls up on the lip of the escarpment. Just wondering why they'd be more prevalent in times of rain.
I agree with you that, the way the soil is now at McCauleys, there's high chance of more slippage. A video would make a more convincing document. With water flowing and clay deforming in front of my eyes it's hard to see it remaining as it is now.
We've done some great drainage on our trails before and during this event, which has spared us the worst of the damage, but still, it's a disheartening scene up there.
Surf conditions notwithstanding, we're probably gonna put on tools and beers this weekend for a community dig day.
Ah. Most of the escarpment isn’t just sandstone, more of a sandwich with layers of sandstone between layers of softer rock and coal. Coal seams and fractured sandstone can become charged with water after heavy rain resulting in instability as either landslides or large sandstone block’s toppling down the hill.
That's so much damage Stu!
Went out Manly. Water was disgusting but the waves sick. Felt spooky but.
Manly is now under water.
Saw you get some gems!
Thanks Jim, was disgusting but really fun!
Wow!
Nearby:
https://www.facebook.com/670407152/videos/260047486315328/
Jeezus!
Manly Dam overflow- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-08/manly-dam-begins-spilling-in-sydn...
It's receding now thankfully, Queensy lagoon observations showed a big spike but it's now dropping, helped by the outgoing tide.
Incredible pictures
stay safe and dry down there you mob. take care.
Bureau reporting 93.4mm of rain at Mona in the 3 hrs to 3:15pm.
Not far north of there and it hasn't stopped pissing down since.
Without wanting to sound flippant - I sat and watched uncrowded waves roll through Maroubra. These days are the best, uncrowded and a little ugly.
Will be interesting to see how quickly people jump back in the water here
water so disgusting though. not helped by our grey suited "mates"....
Be wary filling up on all of East Coast
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-08/contaminated-fuel-reports-in-bris...
And for those out of the city and off the bitumen - quite a few people have lost access in and out of their properties. This one is in Yengo np sent by my mother. Know any bush loners? they may be trapped
Putty copped 61mm in 1 hr and a lot more since
upload your photos online
Shit, that's insane!
My old man lives in Nimbin, the two roads out from his property look like the photo above. They have to walk into town (1 hour walk) to charge their phones and buy food.