Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• S swell peaks Mon AM, with light AM winds 
• Light winds all day Tues with fun-sized renewal in SE swell
• Easing SE swell Wed with light NW winds early, before winds tend SW then S'ly
• Onshore winds Thurs
• Small blend of swells Fri, clean early before S'ly change
• Onshore winds Sat and Sun with small surf

Recap

Quite an active weekend just gone with Saturday seeing a brief window of light SW winds on the Hunter with 3-4ft of SSE swell hanging around. Elsewhere, conditions were hammered by fresh SE winds. Size from the S to SSE boosted a notch Sun from a Tasman low, with size in the 4ft range, albeit smaller at more sheltered locations. S’ly winds eased through the day. This morning has seen a slight easing in S to SSE swell with size ranging from 2-3ft up to 4ft at more exposed spots. S’ly winds are still blowing across the region but are now laying down and tending more light and variable through the day. A fair few wind changes ahead this week, details below. 

Cleaned up quite quickly on Sunday

This week (Mar21-25)

The current low in the Tasman has been slow moving over the last 36hrs, and in conjunction with a 1027 hPa high which is sliding SE below New Zealand, has maintained a reasonable fetch of S/SE winds through the Central and Eastern Tasman.  One last pulse from this system is expected tomorrow before a relatively quiet week unfolds. Several rapid  wind changes ahead offer up some windows of favourable winds which will make a change from the general SE flow of the previous few weeks.

In the short run and an elongated “bubble” high sits along the NSW coast through tomorrow, bringing a cracker of a day with light offshore breezes which will tend N/NE through the day. 

A last pulse of mid period S/SE-SE swell offers up more 3ft surf, bigger 3-4ft at exposed coasts. Tuesday is the best looking day of the f/cast period, so get amongst it if you can, especially for the early session.

Surf will be down from peak heights by Wed, with 2ft leftovers, 2-3ft at select S swell magnets, but conditions will be clean for the mop up. Early NW to N winds will swing W through SW as a trough approaches- before tending S to SE as the trough pushes through the region.

The trough will be linked to a frontal passage, with quite a vigorous S’ly flow through the lower Tasman adjacent to the NSW coast. Thats likely to see a late hit in raggedy short range S swell, probably not worth working around.

Thursday looks very ordinary at this stage as a high pressure ridge builds and a full day of onshore SE winds kicks in. There’s a small chance of a clean window of SW winds early but keep expectations low- we’re only looking at a blend of shorter period S and SSE swell trains in the 3ft range, easing during the day as conditions deteriorate. 

Friday looks a better bet. Another trough creeps in from the W, bringing a period of light W to WNW winds through the morning before winds swing SW then S’ly. There won’t be a great deal of swell in the water, but a few clean 2footers are on offer with the offshore winds. Once the S’ly kicks in, it’ll be a write-off.

This weekend (Mar 26-27)

Onshore winds look like being a problem Saturday as a high pushes East of Tasmania and a small trough develops off the Mid North Coast. Under current modelling we’d expect a fresh S/SE to SE flow along the coast, potentially easing in the a’noon. Surf-wise a small blend of short period swell trains in the 2ft range doesn’t look like much to get excited about.

No great increase expected in size for Sunday, or surface conditions, with winds tending more E to E/NE, possibly NE in the a’noon. We'll mention some refracted long period S'ly swell working it's way north on Sat a'noon into Sun. This is likely to show at only the most reliable S swell magnets, and only some stray 2ft sets. Worth a mention considering there isn't much else happening.

The weekend looks very ordinary at this stage with only weak, small, onshore surf expected. 

Next week (Mar28 onwards)

A weak, troughy pattern to start off next week. Babyfood in the 1-2ft range is expected through Mon and Tues of next week, likely accompanied by N’ly winds. 

Models are struggling to resolve the troughy pattern with GFS suggesting a broad area of low pressure off the Mid North Coast, with a thin fetch of SSE winds not particularly well aimed, generating a small increase in SE swell by Wed. This model then suggests a strong front through the lower Tasman with a favourable NE slingshot- suggesting a moderate S swell later next week.

EC model maintains a NE flow along the coast during early-mid next week, possibly generating useful NE windswell Tues/Wed next week. They have a much weaker front pushing into the Tasman Wed, with a small S swell on the radar.

Neither of these possibilities is too froth-worthy, so we’ll flag them for now and see how they are shaping up on Wed.

Check back then for the latest f/cast notes.