Conditions should settle down quite quickly through the first half of the week as the rambunctious low which passed over Lord Howe Island on the weekend quickly scoots across to the North Island, with trailing fetches near the South Island and out of Cook Strait maintaining good surf through mid-week.

The current pattern- with weak high pressure drifting across Central NSW and a soft ridge along the coast- will be replaced in emphatic fashion by a much stronger front and trough on Friday, anchored by a monster high moving into the Bight at the same time. Well to the south of that set-up will be a deep polar low and associated fronts with severe gales to storm force winds generating long period S’ly swells to make landfall early next week.

Bit of a slow weekend ahead, with easing southerly swells for Saturday becoming very small into Sunday.

Synoptic charts this week look typical of a seasonal transition with mobile high pressure up at sub-tropical latitudes and a strong front poised to sweep into the Tasman with a robust low forming on the front line before rapidly shifting eastwards. Behind that typical seasonal pattern lurks signs of La Niña with a persistent trough line in the Coral Sea and a very strong high expected to track through the Southern Bight later this week.