Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 24th Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Strong front and compact low brings brief S swell spike late Tues, peaking Wed morning before easing 
• Small mix of S swells Thurs
• Smaller S swell spike late/overnight Thurs, easing from Fri AM
• Easing surf this weekend, becoming tiny Sun
• Small, weak swells expected through early/mid next week
• Few swell sources on the radar later next week from the S and E but nothing solid, as yet. Check back Fri for updates

Recap

Surf size bottomed out yesterday with inconsistent E swell to around 2ft, with the odd bigger one. Winds were NW before a cold change swept through the region after lunch, dropping temperatures rapidly as winds swung W to SW. The change arrived a bit too late to generate any useful S swell but surf heights have climbed overnight with fresh S swell building to 3-5ft across the region, bigger 6ft+ on the Hunter and still rising, with some E swell still in the background. Fresh W to SW winds are moderating through the day as the low which formed overnight moves away during the day and pressure gradients slacken.

New day, new swell energy

This week (Aug 24-26)

The current robust but compact low is driving near gales in a thin fetch adjacent to the Central/Mid North Coast, with a tail of weaker winds extending out into the Central Tasman, with the whole show moving eastwards quickly today. Another, much weaker front, pushes up the coast tomorrow before a large high pressure system sets up a ridge along the temperate to sub-tropical coast of NSW. That ridge weakens rapidly with conditions settling quickly as we round off the working week and head into the weekend. 

Short term and surf heights ease quite quickly later on today , with a modest leftover signal from the S tomorrow amounting to around 3ft of swell at S facing beaches, bigger 4ft on the Hunter. You’ll need to get in early for best conditions with W to SW winds, and these will freshen and tend more SW-S as the next front moves through, likely early a’noon on the Illawarra and mid a’noon in Sydney, later a’noon on the  Hunter. We may see a very late kick in new S swell energy, but it will be low quality if it does show before dark and not worth working around.

This new S swell will be in the water Fri, with no great quality, but pushing up into the 3ft range at S facing beaches, 3-4ft on the Hunter. Winds look very ordinary as a high pressure ridge quickly builds in, directing mod/fresh S’lies on the coast. A morning window of SW winds is likely to be brief and concentrated north of Sydney Harbour to the Central Coast. 

This weekend (Aug 27-28)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. With no major swell sources on the radar we’ll be relying on leftover S’ly energy through Sat with some weak 2-3ft sets easing through the day. Winds don’t look too bad- with a weak ridge we should see a window of morning SW breezes, tending to weak S to SE winds before ending up as light E’ly sea breezes. There are some traces of tiny, long period refracted S swell trains heading up the Tasman Sea, but they look super flukey and unlikely to show anything more than the odd 2ft set at the most reliable S swell magnets.

Sunday looks even smaller, with just traces of swell from the SSE-SE, generated by the dregs of the current low as it briefly meanders near New Zealand. Head to your nearest swell magnet for a few 1-2ft sets, with an early NW flow tending to light NE breezes in the a’noon. There should be just enough surf for a grovel at the magnets.

Next week (Aug 29 onwards)

Still looking like a very quiet ending to Winter 2022 as we move into next week and the last 3 days of winter. With high pressure moving out into the Tasman Monday delivers a freshening N’ly flow with enough windspeed and breadth in the local fetch to push up NE windswell into the 2-3ft range. 

An approaching front and low shifts winds to the W overnight, with NE windswell rapidly dropping back to tiny levels as W’ly winds freshen. Expect tiny surf Tuesday.

Tuesdays front and low is expected to generate a small S swell signal for Wed, likely the 3ft range but we’ll finesse that call as we get closer.

Longer term and there are a few things to monitor. 

The trough line in the Coral Sea/South Pacific is still there, so all hope is not lost for something to develop, but models show no great activation of that into the end of next week. We’ll keep watching.

The strong high high passing into the Tasman this weekend, reforms on the other side of New Zealand, pushing a tradewind fetch  up and over the edge of the North Island. This is better aimed at sub-tropical targets but should still provide some small E’ly energy into the first week of Spring.

We’re also tracking some strong southern Ocean low pressure systems from the middle of next week. Most of the wind vectors are quite zonal (W-E) and the storms get shunted southwards as they approach the Tasman Sea. Nonetheless we’re still likely to see some refracted long period energy through the end of next week.

Check back Fri and we’ll have updates on these possibilities as well as a final look at the weekend.

Seeya then.