Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 26th Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Easing surf this weekend, becoming tiny Sun
• Chance for a small NE windswell Tues AM
• Chance for a small S'ly swell Wed
• Minor E'ly swell later next week
• Small long period S'ly swells possible next weekend

Recap

Plenty of surf over the last few days, S/SE on Thursday and S’ly today with sets in the 3-4ft range at south friendly beaches. Early winds were W/SW in many regions both days, but fresh southerlies have cropped up through the days.

Manly looking fun this morning

This weekend (Aug 27-28)

Bit of a slow weekend ahead, with easing southerly swells for Saturday becoming very small into Sunday. 

Aside from diminishing southerly swells, we’ll see minor levels of sideband SE energy from a modest, poorly aligned S/SW fetch off the west coast of New Zealand. Expect some 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets early Saturday, down to 2ft by the afternoon and then 1-2ft on Sunday. Elsewhere (i.e. most beaches) it'll be a lot smaller thanks to the swell direction.

Local winds should be OK through the mornings, generally light and variable for a few hours early on, before E/SE develop through Saturday afternoon and N/NE breezes pick up on Sunday afternoon. 

It’s really not looking that great so make the most of whatever you see in front of you early Saturday. 

Next week (Aug 29 onwards)

An approaching front will freshen N’ly winds through Monday, generating some local windswell.

The models are in slight disagreement as to the strength of the associated fetch, and the timing of the frontal passage (either late Mon or early Tues), however this doesn’t alter the projected surf outcome much - we’ll kick off the working week with tiny residual energy, before building windswells pad out the afternoon.

A very optimistic outlook sees short period N/NE energy peaking Tuesday morning in the 2ft+ range (bigger on the South Coast) with a fun window of options in the wake of the expected NW tending W/SW change, but it’s not worth too much focus right now.

Gale force W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait behind the front should generate some small acute south swell for Wednesday morning, exclusively to south swell magnets. It’s a low confidence event right now, maybe 2ft at most reliable south swell magnets but up to 3ft in the Hunter if we’re lucky. Expect very little surf elsewhere.

Otherwise, the charts are looking quiet for the rest of the week. 

Some minor mid-week tradewind activity north of New Zealand could kick up some small E’ly swell for the end of the week, and a series of strong fronts sliding underneath the continent should poke their heads into our far southern swell window mid-late week, suggesting some long period southerly swell for next weekend. But that’s a fair way out into the future for now.

Have a great weekend!