Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 21st Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Long range inconsistent E'ly groundswell late Tues/Wed but you’ll have to work around some robust wind changes
• Strong front and compact low brings steep S swell spike late Tues, peaking Wed morning before easing 
• Small mix of S swells Thurs
• Smaller S swell spike late Thurs, easing from Fri
• Easing surf this weekend, becoming tiny Sun
• Small, weak swells expected through most of next week
• Tracking potential for more E swell later next week, stay tuned for updates, it’s a long way off!

Recap

Lovely weekend of E’ly dominated swells and mostly offshore conditions. Saturday saw mostly 4ft E swell (with the odd bigger one) and a W through NW flow in advance of a front. Sunday quickly resumed offshore winds and with slightly smaller E swell in the 3-4ft range and a smidgen of S swell in the mix. Today is seeing plenty of good waves to start the week with leftover E swell still supplying some inconsistent 3ft sets and a touch of S swell in the mix which is adding an extra foot of size to the Hunter. Clean conditions early under W to NW winds, shifting N’ly through the day. 

Still some lovely waves on offer to start the week

This week (Aug 22-26)

Synoptic charts this week look typical of a seasonal transition with mobile high pressure up at sub-tropical latitudes and a strong front poised to sweep into the Tasman with a robust low forming on the front line before rapidly shifting eastwards. Behind that typical seasonal pattern lurks signs of La Niña with a persistent trough line in the Coral Sea and a very strong high expected to track through the Southern Bight later this week. We’ll monitor those precursor building blocks for another round of E swell in the medium/long term but for now, it’s the Tasman Sea that has most of the action. 

Expect freshening pre-frontal N to NW winds through tomorrow, at least up to lunch-time, with a slight kick in E swell up into the 3-4ft range. By late morning/lunch-time longer period E swell sets to 4ft will join the mix, generated by a retrograding low in the South Pacific last week. A fresh and gusty S/SW change sweeps up the coast around lunch-time for Sydney, with timing later for the Hunter and earlier for the Illawarra. That will confine surfable options to more protected bays and corners. A late kick in new short range swell should rapidly fill in before dark.

That spike in S swell looks to be sizeable by Wed morning with S facing beaches up into the 6-8ft range, bigger on the Hunter. Fresh SW/S winds will confine surf to protected corners again, where long range E swell will supply some very inconsistent 3-4ft sets, in amongst the smaller refracted S swell. A low forming in the front just off the Central Coast (see below), quickly shunts E during the day, leading to a lighter wind flow, tending more W/SW during the a’noon. It’s a complex brew, but we should see the initial spike in S swell settle quickly through the a’noon, back into the 4-6ft range. Exposed S facing breaks will likely still have plenty of lump and bump from the S’ly quarter winds through the morning.

The end of the week looks to settle down very quickly. Thursday sees winds shift back offshore, with a mix of S swells in the water and some very inconsistent leftover E swell energy topping out around 3ft at S facing beaches. Through the a’noon another front pushes through, although not as strong as the previous one. That will see winds shift SSW in the a’noon and freshen. Another late kick in short range S swell is expected, of a much more modest size than Tuesdays pulse.

That S swell pulse ends off the working week size in the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks, and quality hampered by a S’ly flow as a high pressure ridge builds along the coast. There’ll be some surfable options if you set expectations low. 

This weekend (Aug 27-28)

Not a great deal of action expected this weekend. A high just east of Tasmania sets up a weak S to SE flow adjacent to the Central NSW coast and that will see a light S to SE flow through Sat, with a small mix of S to SE swells providing some ordinary surf in the 2-3ft range, easing during the day. Best early before the wind kicks up, although winds should stay light enough to surf all day if you need a grovel in the a’noon and aren’t too fussy.

Those weak swells ease back even further Sun with size in the sub 2ft range expected. Winds look  light though as a troughy region over the coast generates a flukey offshore flow. There’s likely just enough energy on tap for a few peaks on the beachies.

Next week (Aug 29 onwards)

Looks like we will have a very subdued ending to what has been a pretty active winter. Absent any major swell sources and with high pressure moving NE into the Tasman and weakening we’re expecting a tiny start to the week, with no major swell sources and size in the 1ft range.

N quadrant winds are expected Mon, before a flukey trough brings SW winds Tues.

A N’ly infeed into the  trough offers up some potential for NE windswell Wed, but we’ll need to see how that is shaping up through the week.

Into the medium term and as we mentioned at the start of the notes there is some potential for another round of E swell into the first week of Spring. At least one major weather model (EC) is suggesting the long trough line gets activated by a strong high moving south of the bight later next week. That does offer up hopes for another “trough block” scenario, although it’s way too early to begin frothing about it. We’ll flag it for now and see how it’s shaping up through this week.

Check back Wed for the latest update.