2025 CT Qualifiers Decided…Almost

Stu Nettle picture
Stu Nettle (stunet)
Form Guide

Following two days of action at Saquarema, which is the last event of the Challenger Series, the qualifiers for next year’s CT are decided…almost.

There’s certainty at least for Australian surfers with both George Pittar and Joel Vaughan qualifying for the men, while no other Aussie surfers are able to make it. Jackson Baker is still in the draw yet even if he wins won’t make the top ten.

George is currently in seventh and out of the contest. “I just wanted the camera to get out of my face,” said Pittar after he made it, “I was bawling my eyes out. I can’t believe it right now, so much went into this. It means the world to me.”

Joel is sixth and may climb higher if he continues through the draw. Keeping his game face on, Vaughan offered a simple message on Instagram: “Stoked. Thanks for the support.”

The first eight qualifiers are set with Edgard Groggia in ninth place and Jackson Bunch in tenth, both out of the comp and awaiting their fortunes. Their qualification rests in the hands of Mateus Herdy and Levi Slawson.

If Herdy makes one more heat he’ll overtake Bunch and tie with Groggia for equal ninth. If he progresses to the Final then Groggia drops to tenth and his fate rests with Slawson, currently placed 20th.

If Slawson makes two more heats - i.e makes the Final - he’ll also qualify. Coming from opposite sides of the draw, Herdy and Slawson can’t meet each other till the Final, so this outcome is a possibility.

A complexity: If Slawson makes the Final and Herdy just the Semi, then Herdy will be tied with Groggia on equal tenth. How the Woz breaks that is unknown.

In the women, the first four spots are locked up with only fifth-placed Nadia Erostarbe awaiting the outcome. Things aren’t looking good, as the next four surfers behind her are all still alive in the contest

If Vahine Fierro or Luana Silva make one more heat they’ll overtake her. Fierro and Silva are currently tied, so from there whoever progresses further qualifies.

Yolanda Hopkins would have to make two more heats - i.e the Final - to knock Erostarbe out, plus she’d have to see how Fierro and Silva place. If either of those two win the comp, Hopkins can’t qualify.

At just 5 points behind, Sophia Medina is in the same boat as Hopkins.

Competition continues tonight with Finals for both men and women.

Comments

More tubes please's picture
More tubes please's picture
More tubes please Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 12:02pm

So at least 3/6 Changas event champs on the men’s side will fail to qualify for the 2025 WCT. That’s pretty wild. Could be 4/6 if Jacko Baker goes all the way in this event.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 12:08pm

Pretty amazing statistic in that, prior to this year, it had never happened before.

Nothing is assured anymore.

yodai's picture
yodai's picture
yodai Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 12:12pm

Sadly this comp as expected pretty much an air show except a couple of surfers like Jacko baker winning on power rail game

peabo's picture
peabo's picture
peabo Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 12:17pm

Prediction - Only 3 of the 10 men to make the 2025 cut.

kimbo1's picture
kimbo1's picture
kimbo1 Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 8:18pm

Lets have a wager on that . 1 will make .

TH's picture
TH's picture
TH Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 12:22pm

Aside from George and Joely V I've never been more underwhelmed looking at a CS qualifying list.
Fuck me, it's going to be a looooooooong year of shit poo stances and crappy air reverse's.

niglooonly's picture
niglooonly's picture
niglooonly Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 12:58pm

Solid take ledge, Aussies on top. Bit rich though mate considering I seen you mr "TH" c'ing out on the weekend at me local, barely could stand up, let alone pulled up with Ripcurl stickers on your nose

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 1:16pm

Wow. Show us on teddy where TH hurt you champ

TH's picture
TH's picture
TH Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 1:19pm

Mr? Presumptive.

benjis babe's picture
benjis babe's picture
benjis babe Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 8:24pm

haha, you nailed it, I agree, shame cal and Alan didn't make the cut

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 1:58pm

I hope Levi has a brother called Cole

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 2:25pm

Shouldn't have read that with a mouthful of coffee.

Andrew P's picture
Andrew P's picture
Andrew P Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 10:55pm

11/10

Andrew P's picture
Andrew P's picture
Andrew P Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 11:06pm

Cole and his twin called Kale

.cylinders's picture
.cylinders's picture
.cylinders Monday, 21 Oct 2024 at 3:31am

would it be too literal if he named his eventual son Cole instead?

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 2:13pm

Snapper, Manly, Ballito, Huntington, Ericeira and Brazil...
Not one wave over 3ft and only one wave requiring more than 2 turns and a closeout.
No real surprises its Brazilian dominated.
Even the two Aussies are whip thin small wave specialists.
How is this the best version of selecting surfers for the best waves in the world??

yodai's picture
yodai's picture
yodai Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 2:46pm

You forgot to mention the number of heats I’ve watched where the brazzo surfer (and Joel for that matter) attempt a shitty air on every wave often just one manoeuvre after racing whole wave to end close out
Wave counts on some heats have been Aussie 4 or 5 waves and brazzo 11 plus
As I’ve said before we need head judge with balls to say from get go airs will not be overscored
Can’t wait to see David Silvia charging pipe again

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 2:27pm
stunet wrote:

There’s certainty at least for Australian surfers with both George Pittar and Joel Vaughan qualifying for the men, while no other Aussie surfers are able to make it.

Errrr... Sally Fitz?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 2:36pm

Sally Fitz and Isabella Nichols have made it.

There's no other Aussie surfer able to win their way into qualification. Jackson Baker is still in the contest but it's too far adrift to make the top ten.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 2:51pm

Gotcha. Thought you were saying that the only Aussies to qualify were Pittar and Vaughan, musta misread.

sacash's picture
sacash's picture
sacash Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 6:20pm

I reckon Jackson will go the same way as Stu Kennedy

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 11:48pm

Where did stu go ?

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 2:49pm

Back to the building site.

Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 3:29pm

even with the qualification hubbub i tried to watch this comp but the banks (and waves) are worse than my local atm... and my local is pretty grim.

now that our collective grizzling has 'fixed' the CT locations we should turn our attention to the QS...

scroobs64's picture
scroobs64's picture
scroobs64 Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 3:53pm

Long time reader, first time commenter.

My napkin maths has Kade Matson as a possible qualifier as well, if he wins the comp. Is this wrong? (Either way, I hope he doesn't)

stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 8:52pm

Correct scroobs. Kade can still qualify and doesn't need the two guys above to bow out, as he will have to beat each head to head - Mateus in the semi and Levi in the final - if either of them make it that far.

Denyer's picture
Denyer's picture
Denyer Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 6:53pm

"Wow, I can't wait to see the top 5 challengers perform on the big stage."

- no one

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 7:25pm

Be good to see Vahine scrape in. She's missed out by a bees dick on at least one occasion. She was ripping yesty on her backhand.
Shame to see Willcox sit and not catch a wave for 27 mins of a 30 min heat while his competitors picked the eyes out of the junk. Talent wise he's got it in spades, and should be back on tour but his heat strategy of not catching a wave could do with a little work.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 3:22pm

Wilcox sat for 27 minutes faarrk
Brutal
Pro surfers on strike!
AKA Freesurfers

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 8:45pm

What’s most noticeable about the challenger is the plethora of surfers all about the same high level. It’s just so close and so difficult to separate or standout. Take the Round of 16 for example:

1. Baker 13.5 v Muniz 12.9
2. Matson 12.9 v Wilcox 12.33
3. Herdy 13.5 v Cibilic 13.07
4. Silva 11.37 v Nish 10.74
5. Vaughan 12.0 v Ohraha 11.57
7. Slawson 14.27 v Moffat 14.04
8. Mignot 15.5 v Falcao 15.1

There’s less than 0.6 difference in all of those matchups. That could be chalked up to human error/subjectivity as to who won.

Is this due to the current equity of talent or more to do with the conditions that even things out?

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 8:53pm

I thought that watching it last night @solitude. They all rip and aren't afraid to go for the big turns on big sections.

badWAves's picture
badWAves's picture
badWAves Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 2:40pm

I reckon most of the top 100 could take heats off all but the top few of the CT on their day and in the right conditions. Lots of talent, reckon a wave with a bit of juice on the challenger would certainly clear things up though.

stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 9:54pm

"A complexity: If Slawson makes the Final and Herdy just the Semi, then Herdy will be tied with Groggia on equal tenth. How the Woz breaks that is unknown."

WSL Tiebreaker 1 is a count-back of qualifying event scores, which given the scoring breakdown means that two surfers can only tie with identical results and can never actually break a tie....

WSL Tiebreaker 2 is whoever gets most heat wins in the CS season (exclusive of round 1 heats). Currently we have Groggia with 8* heat wins and Herdy with 6*, so Groggia would qualify if Herdy loses in the semi with 7 heat wins.

*It is not clear whether placing 2nd in a 4 man heat and making the next round is counted as a heat win, however each surfer only had one each so it doesn't make any difference if we count 8 vs 7 wins or 9 vs 8 wins/2nd.

WSL Tiebreaker 3 (if needed) is highest average heat score for the season.

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 10:13pm

Vahine moves on through. Sick one!
Interesting case study in Sofia Medina. I'm not that up to date with Brazilian women's surfing, but is she the first home grown Brazilian girl to battle out for qualification in some time? In the last decade or more I can only think of the last one being Silvana Lima. Seems like a bit of a void in the women's compared to the men, who are infesting the ratings. Is that a cultural thing?
Seems strange that the only Brazilian woman to excel in the Challenger series is also the sister of one of the dominant male top dogs.

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 10:13pm

Vahine moves on through. Sick one!
Interesting case study in Sofia Medina. I'm not that up to date with Brazilian women's surfing, but is she the first home grown Brazilian girl to battle out for qualification in some time? In the last decade or more I can only think of the last one being Silvana Lima. Seems like a bit of a void in the women's compared to the men, who are infesting the ratings. Is that a cultural thing?
Seems strange that the only Brazilian woman to excel in the Challenger series is also the sister of one of the dominant male top dogs.

stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 10:33pm

Yolanda Hopkins surfs with front and rear deck grips! When was the last time we saw that on the CT?

stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes's picture
stinky_wes Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 11:14pm

Luana is out.

Winner of the Vahine/Yolanda semi final makes it onto the CT! No pressure…

DingOZ's picture
DingOZ's picture
DingOZ Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 11:31pm

Macey's 6 was better than Luana's 7 on the rights ...love seein the Brazzo crew deflated at their home beach after their too cool for school carry on.

Go Aussies, Go Jacko!

DingOZ's picture
DingOZ's picture
DingOZ Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 11:34pm

Vahine's on for sure.

DingOZ's picture
DingOZ's picture
DingOZ Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 11:47pm

Note the deafening silence from the crowd for a 9 by Jacko sans brazzo competitors. Herdy v Silva and the cheers will be back.

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Wednesday, 16 Oct 2024 at 11:55pm

watching herdy pump pump pump and spin for 5s is making me feel sick.

DingOZ's picture
DingOZ's picture
DingOZ Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 12:10am

The quieter the crowd gets, the better it makes me feel.

Herdy's out and we're a chance at an all Aussie final. Good chance for a women's win too.

DingOZ's picture
DingOZ's picture
DingOZ Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 12:15am

Looks like Vaughan on a shorter board today, upping the performance ante for finals.

DingOZ's picture
DingOZ's picture
DingOZ Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 1:04am

Most parochial spectators in world sport. If they're not winning, they're crying. Stuff the actual contest and go for a caipirinha.

DingOZ's picture
DingOZ's picture
DingOZ Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 1:08am

Given the same situation, most Aussies would pick a dog in the fight ...likely the underdog, and go with it.

DingOZ's picture
DingOZ's picture
DingOZ Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 1:14am

And at least stick around and give some polite applause where appropriate.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 6:04am

Eddie Grog and Jackson Bunch very lucky Mateus Herdy couldn’t get it done.

Just watched the replay of Baker v Silva. Another super tight one - Jackson really flaring this comp. Looks like he’s dropped a couple of kilos too. My green and gold eye has him winning.

Oh well good luck at Pipe David.

Best story of the comp is Vahine making the CT.

only-sams's picture
only-sams's picture
only-sams Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 7:27am

Assuming they give Moana the pipe wildcard the thought of a Vahine vs Moana final in 8ft pipe is a juicy juicy proposition.

J W's picture
J W's picture
J W Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 8:32am

The fact that Alejo fucking Muniz was able to qualify completely discredits the entire thing. He has the worst style ever seen on the modern tour, was a joke to watch 10 years ago and yet here he is again. Looking at the top 6 you could be mistaken for thinking it’s 2016. The only one making it out of that crew is Sam Pupo.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 9:01am

Julian is that you? Good luck on the QS next year mate.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 2:57pm

Aren't they all couldahasbeens except for Sammy and the two Aussies. How many times does the other Pupo re qualify and then fail needs to get a day job like the rest of us schleppers.

Alex Papas's picture
Alex Papas's picture
Alex Papas Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 at 9:21am

2 aussies in the top 10 on the changa and 5 between 11-20. oddly representative of our results on the CT in recent years haha! couple guys in the top 5 or 10 pictures and most just outside of it

iamlegend's picture
iamlegend's picture
iamlegend Friday, 18 Oct 2024 at 12:44pm

How did Mikey McDonagh not make it after winning Snapper?

yodai's picture
yodai's picture
yodai Friday, 18 Oct 2024 at 12:53pm

Cause he never got past first round in any other comp

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Friday, 18 Oct 2024 at 4:25pm

He’s not on his Pat Malone…….Al Cleland and Jordy Lawler also won an event and failed to qualify as well.

This is the first year since its inception in 2021 that a challengers series contender wins a challenger event and fails to qualify for the CT

2022: John, Callum Rob and Gabe won an event each but were already on the CT.
2021: John won one

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Friday, 18 Oct 2024 at 4:36pm

The changa has been brutal to a couple of surfers in particular being a spot or so off a couple of times or in the top twenty at least:
Morgan Cibilic, Dylan Moffat, Jordy Lawler and Mateus Herdy.

I fear you’ll be able to add Jacko Baker, Jacob Wilcox and Callum Robson to that list too soon.

Eyeman's picture
Eyeman's picture
Eyeman Saturday, 19 Oct 2024 at 8:39am

Style. It's all about style. When we describe a surfer we say he or she has a great style. Bring back the style factor.

Benjch's picture
Benjch's picture
Benjch Friday, 29 Nov 2024 at 1:25pm

The amazing day when the only ppl that care abt pro surfing are on this thread. Thank god its over.