On the New Zealand side of the basin, troughy remnants of last week’s low pressure cell invigorate a long, broad tradewind fetch extending from the South Pacific into the Northern Tasman and Coral Sea. While this fetch looks a little less impressive and more mobile than it did on Wed it’s still going to be a solid swell producer for the sub-tropical East Coast.
Primary tabs
This incredible high pressure system, 1036 and 1042 hPa, then begins to extend a long, broad fetch of SE/ESE winds adjacent to the North Island and extending through the South Pacific and into the Northern Tasman and Southern Coral Sea. This portends another extended E’ly swell event, more focussed on NENSW and SEQLD but with enough width in the fetch to ensure the entire NSW coast gets sprayed with swell from the Eastern Quadrant.
An extended E’ly pattern then sets up, as high pressure straddles New Zealand and the troughy remnants of the Tasman low squeeze pressure gradients along a long, broad fetch extending through the South Pacific adjacent to the North Island and extending into the Coral Sea. Models show this fetch then further retrograding back towards the Australian East Coast to end the working week.
This S swell will combine with the long range E swell showing 3-4ft sets, potentially offering up some A frame beachies if you can crack the code. Friday looks well worth a paddle or two.
Thursday looks the day for surf to thicken up as the deeper, better aligned SSE/SE fetch generates strong SSE swell for the NE/NSW Coast with a smaller amount getting into SEQLD. With the low moving away local pressure gradients will ease and lighter SW winds will see a day of cleaner, pumping waves.
An upper cold pool is expected to spawn a cut-off low East of Sydney during Tuesday. This is a different beast to the more polar lows that have been traversing the Tasman in the last few weeks, a classic “onion ring” system which occupies the majority of the central/southern Tasman for the majority of next week
A long, broad fetch of ESE/SE winds develops along the northern flank of the high, filling out that very favourable South Pacific corridor between the North Island and New Caledonia with strong winds to low end gales.
Gales exiting Bass Strait today will see a first pulse of weaker refracted S swell later tomorrow but the real juice is being generated by a deeper fetch of severe gales tracking from 55S up to 40S, into the Tasman sea through today and early tomorrow.
The deeper southern fetch tied to the polar low then fires up and aggressively tracks almost due north towards Tasmania with gales and severe gales extending up to almost Tasmanian latitudes later Mon.
The result is a long, broad fetch of severe gales from 55S up to Tasmanian latitudes Sun , extending even further south late Sun into Mon with a more favourable SSW tilt in wind alignment in the fetch.