South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 17th Dec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun SE swell for Sat with early light winds, biggest in Northern NSW, generally small in SE Qld
• N'ly winds likely to ruin most spots sout of the border Sun (only small surf in SE Qld too)
• Fun trade swell building Mon/Tues, and a posisble fun E/NE groundswell Wed too
• Winds will be a little funky through this period, but it'll be workable
• Couple of interesting sources for the Xmas period

Recap

Fun leftover SE swell offered small waves throughout Northern NSW on Thursday, but not a lot north of the border. A new SE swell today provided good surf around the 3ft mark at most Northern NSW beaches, punching a little higher across the Tweed Coast, occasionally 3-4ft. The Sunshine Coast came in small around 1-2ft but the Gold Coast also performed a little better than expected, with a open beaches and outer points picking up 2-3ft sets. 

This weekend (Dec 18 - 19)

As per Wednesday’s (and Monday’s) notes, we have another pulse of SE swell due on Saturday.

This energy reached Southern NSW today with occasional 3ft+ sets at most open beaches, and was slightly higher than the previous swell (which reached Northern NSW today). However, the energy has travelled a little further, so may not produce the same proportional size increase across our region as seen down south.

Nevertheless, we’re looking at light winds across most locations early morning, and they’ll offer the best surf of the day ahead of freshening N/NE winds across the Mid North Coast, that’ll veer more NE across the Northern Rivers, with a slightly delayed onset.

SE Qld (and perhaps Far Northern NSW) will see more of an E/NE airstream develop throughout the day, with much less strength too. 

As for size, let’s peg south facing beaches south of Byron in and around the 3ft+ mark, perhaps the odd bigger bomb if we’re lucky. Elsewhere it’ll be smaller though not quite as small as under directional south swells. Expect long breaks between the sets.

As for SE Qld, it’s quite likely that tomorrow will fair similar to today, with more size on the Gold Coast (2-3ft) than the Sunshine Coast (1-2ft), though exposed northern ends are always the exception to these rules, and they’ll be your best source for the biggest waves. 

Strengthening N/NE winds on Sunday across he Mid North Coast should generate a small local windswell as the SE swell eases steadily in size, but quality will be hard to find. 

Again, we’ll see less wind strength as you head north from Yamba or Ballina up into SE Qld, but with only small swell sources on hand north of the border, you’ll need to make it early to an exposed northern end for the best options. Keep your expectations low.

Next week (Dec 20 onwards)

Hmm, we’ve got an interesting troughy period next week. There’ll be bouts of northerly winds, but early mornings should offer lighter NW breezes and they’ll be small pockets associated with local thunderstorms that could offer clean options. 

As for surf, a building ridge through the lower Coral Sea/Northern Tasman Sea this weekend will be enhanced by a tropical low developing east of Vanuatu, that’s expected to push south (see below).

Initially, this will build some local E/NE trade swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (smaller south from Coffs), that should reach 2-3ft from late Monday into Tuesday.

Additionally, the tropical low will come out from underneath our swell shadow late Sunday, and this has the potential for a slightly stronger E/NE groundswell arriving very late Tuesday or (moe likely) early Wednesday, possibly in the 3-4ft range.

The short fetch length concerns me, but the latest model guidance does show a good pathway (to the SW) so I’ll be keeping a close eye on this over the weekend for swell potential. Hopefully we see a major upgrade and some useful high pressure building to the south, to help draw out the fetch length and deliver some really good waves.

Elsewhere, and a trough pushing into Southern NSW on Monday will generate some small southerly swell for Tues/Wed across Northern NSW but it won’t amount to much.

Additionally, a vigorous frontal passage south of Tasmania from Sunday through Wednesday will generally be poorly aimed within our swell window, so wave heights will be very small from this region through Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday - perhaps some 1-2ft sets at south facing beaches.

The tail end of this progression should slingshot a final front through a better sector of our south swell window (late Wednesday) and this is expected to set up a better pulse of south swell around Friday. We’ll have more confidence on that in Monday’s update.

Lastly, lingering troughiness across the western Tasman Sea mid-late next week looks to be one of several favourable ingredients (a few others not yet showing) for swell potential leading into Xmas Eve, Xmas Day and Boxing Day. And there may be a cyclone brewing in and around the Coral Sea later next week too. 

It’s still early days, but I’d quietly pencil in the possibility for some festive surfing opportunties around this time, despite the models not really being on board just yet.

See you Monday!