South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday Dec 10th)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun E'ly swell all weekend, with winds veering to the southern quadrant
• Solid S'ly swell building across the MNC (Sat) and remaining Northern NSW Coasts (Sun)
• Easing E'ly and S'ly swells from Mon, with freshening SE winds, still good for outer points, esp early
• Small flukey NE cyclone swell showing Mon, peaking Tues/Wed though not a lot of size
• Small surf for the latter half of next week

Recap

Thursday saw slowly building E’ly swells into the 2-3ft range, which nudged a little higher today, though northerly winds were an issue on Thursday afternoon (following light winds and glassy conditions early morning). This morning saw a more NW trend that favoured the open beaches; afternoon NE breezes haven’t been too strong. 

Fun Friday beachies on the Sunny Coast

This weekend (Dec 11 - 12)

No change to the weekend forecast.

Winds will swing to the southern quadrant as a Tasman Low develops off the Far South Coast of NSW, and a ridge builds along the Queensland coast. Early breezes should be SW in a few regions but it’ll veer S’ly then S/SE through the day, no major strength is likely though open beaches will become bumpy. This means a weekend best suited to semi-protected points. 

As for surf, we’ve got a few sources on the boil.

The current E’ly swell will ratchet up a notch as the swell period draws out another second or two, owing to a period of intensification in the South Pacific earlier this week. Sets will be inconsistent but should manage 3ft+ or so at most open beaches (smaller running down the points), however one or two swell magnets could see bigger bombs in the 3-4ft+ range (the exception rather than the rule). 

Keep in mind the inconsistency of this distant groundswell - these kinds of events are not really suitable for the points as the low wave count means a lot less waves to pick and choose from. The models are estimating a peak in energy later Saturday or early Sunday, so don’t be surprised if early Saturday is a smidge undersized too. 

Otherwise, we’ll see building S’ly swells from the Tasman Low; initially the Mid North Coast on Saturday (biggest in the afternoon), reaching Far Northern NSW overnight into Sunday. The alignment of this low isn’t good for our region, the steep southerly direction will create a very large range in wave heights between beaches and I don’t think we’ll see much energy push north of the border either.

So, let’s peg max surf size (say, Sunday) around 5-6ft at south facing beaches south of Coffs and 4-5ft south of Byron, with much smaller surf elsewhere. 

North the border, the E’ly swell will be the dominant energy on all weekend.

Next week (Dec 13 onwards)

The Tasman Low will maintain strength through Sunday, meaning Monday’ should see continuing S/SE swell as per Sunday, biggest at south facing beaches south of the border with sets around 4-6ft early, easing into the afternoon.

We should see a broader spread of size across Northern NSW too (compared to the weekend) thanks to the more easterly position of the low on Sat/Sun, though I’m still not expecting much size to push north of the border. Surf size will be much smaller at beaches not open to the south.

SE Qld will see easing E’ly swell from the weekend, down from 2-3ft early to 1-2ft by the afternoon.

Local winds will freshen from the SE through the day, following early SW breezes, as a yet-to-be-named Tropical Cyclone - currently Tropical Low 07U - pushes down through Coral Sea, firming a coastal ridge at the same time. 

In Wednesday’s forecast I discussed a potential NE cyclone swell from this source (we should see a named TC on Saturday), however the latest model runs have nudged its path a little more to the south-east then south, which will slip up into the swell shadow of New Caledonia.

Argh.

There’s a couple of flow on effects. Firstly, this will shorten its duration within our swell window, and secondly, the marginally faster track reduces confidence that we’ll see a good groundswell event, from what’s a tricky, unusual swell window at the best of times. Single synoptic snapshots look great but the path of the cyclone will be almost perpendicular through our swell window and that's not a good thing.

As such, I’m keeping my expectations in check for this swell. And, I think the models are not resolving the cyclone very well either (suggesting as much size on Monday as Wednesday), which is not adding much weight to the outlook.

Monday and early Tuesday should see small levels of energy starting to push through - perhaps some inconsistent 2ft sets - ahead of a slightly stronger pulse arriving after lunch on Tuesday, holding into early Wednesday morning before slowly fading through the afternoon. I'm pegging size reaching the 2-3ft+ mark at exposed spots by Tuesday afternoon/early Wednesday. Fortunately, local winds will be good for the outer points, and they’ll pick up this energy the best too. 

But.. I would be hesitant to clock up any major mileage up or down the coast chasing surf. 

Additionally, the latter passage of this cyclone through the north-eastern Tasman Sea (between New Cal and New Zealand) is expected to be too fast to generate any meaningful groundswell, so I’m not getting my hopes up from this region either right now.

So, make the most of the weekend’s swell combo, and then keep an eye out for possible NE energy early next week.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday.