South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec22)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small E'ly swell suitable for a grovel continues Thurs/Fri, best early
• Just rideable surf XMas Day with light winds, bottoming out Boxing Day with continuing light winds
• Increase in surf Mon, likely as trough/low forms off NSW Coast
• Fun surf Tues-Fri with size dependent on position of trough/low 
• Active tropics suggests plenty of surf into the New Year, stay tuned for details

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small E'ly swell suitable for a grovel continues Thurs/Fri, best early
• Small S swell in the mix late Thurs/Fri
• Small mix of swells XMas Day with light winds, including inconsistent S/SE groundswell 
• Small surf continues Boxing Day with light winds, best at S facing beaches
• Increase in surf Mon, likely as trough/low forms off NSW Coast

Plenty of surf from the E/SE Tues-Fri depending on position of trough/low, likely biggest on Mid-North Coast

Active tropics suggests plenty of surf into the New Year, stay tuned for details

Recap

Not a great deal of surf since Mon. Yesterday was a messy 2ft, with N’ly winds confining clean waves to backbeaches. A slight uptick in energy today has seen a marginal improvement in surf with some glassy 2ft+ options on the beachies, best on the Sunshine Coast, and deteriorating in quality the further south in the f/ast region you are. All in all, just enough for a fun grovel before the wind got up.

Glassy morning with a slight uptick in E swell

This week (Dec 22-24)

Very weak pressure gradients everywhere as we continue to meander through this troughy, doldrums pattern. It’s not unusual to get this pattern around the Summer Solstice as seasonal atmospheric/oceanic changes start to manifest. Currently, the last of a series of fronts is passing well to the south of Tasmania, weakening as it enters the far Southern Tasman Sea. A rare, stalled low well south of the South Island has aimed a fetch of severe gales back towards the East Coast over the last 24-36 hrs, with travel distance and fetch length limiting swell production to a small, long period pulse over Xmas in NENSW, not likely to make landfall in SEQLD.

In the short run a NW/SE angled trough and weak high pressure ridge will set-up a regime of SE/ESE winds off the Central NSW Coast, which is expected to slowly drift north, bringing a weak S’ly change to the Mid North Coast tomorrow before reaching the QLD border sometime Friday . In the interim, a lighter N’ly flow is expected with winds generally below 15 knots prior to the S’ly change.

Swell will be small for the rest of the week anyway. A small blend of E’ly swell in the 1-2ft range, with a slight kick in new S swell later Thurs on the Mid North Coast offering up some 2ft sets at S swell magnets, likely hard to utilise in the prevailing SE flow.

Friday doesn’t look much better. More small, marginal surf from the E, with some traces of longer period S swell, topping out at 2ft at S facing beaches. Quality is likely to be OK under the prevailing light/variable,  SE/ESE flow.  It’s uninspiring stuff with marginal outcomes so if you’ve got pre Xmas stuff to get done Friday looks good for that.

This weekend (Dec 25 - 26)

Christmas Day won’t be one for the history books as far as surf goes but there should be a small rideable wave on hand with light morning winds and a weak a’noon Seabreeze. Small traces of S swell and background E/NE swell will hold surf in the 1-2ft range Xmas morning at exposed breaks. SEQLD will see more dominant E’ly swell while S facing beaches in NENSW will see more S’ly swell but don’t expect anything over 2ft. Late in the day some rare S/SE groundswell from the source below New Zealand will arrive, with some slow, Lully, 2ft+ sets, more likely at S magnets on the Mid North Coast. 

Boxing Day is likely to see a bottoming out in swell energy as the E’ly doldrums pattern in the Coral Sea reaches it’s nadir. Light winds continue through Boxing Day so it’ll be worth bringing a floaty object to the beach for some 1-1.5ft surf. The exception will be S facing beaches in NENSW, which will continue to see some long range, inconsistent 2ft sets from the S/SE. 

Next week (Dec 27 onwards)

A strong front passes below Tasmania over the Xmas weekend with the leading edge of a very strong high pressure ridge behind it. That quickly establishes a S’ly flow up the Northern NSW coast into SEQLD during Monday. That pattern quickly interacts with a complex upper-level trough system tracking towards the coast from the sub-tropical interior, likely forming a coastal trough and possible surface low during Mon. 

There’s still a high degree of uncertainty over where this trough/low will form, anywhere from the SEQLD coast down to the Mid-North Coast has been suggested by recent model runs.

Either way, the block pattern of a slow moving dominant high will set up a very strong cradling effect for any trough/low that forms, and the ridge itself will see mod/fresh SE winds establishing through Mon, likely into the middle of next week.

Surf-wise we can expect a ramping up in size through Mon, mostly from short range E/SE swell generated by winds in the Tasman sea feeding into the developing trough. Size is likely to build from 1-2ft up into the 3ft range during the a’noon, with size dependent on latitude. Areas to the south, closer to the fetch will rise more rapidly, while areas to the north will see less size. We'll finesse that Fri with more model guidance.

Size through Tues and Wed, will be dependent on the position of the trough/low, with current modelling showing the proximate fetch of strong E/SE winds aimed at Central NSW generating the biggest surf in the southern half of the f/cast region.  A mix of long period S and dominant mid-period ESE swell in the 3-4ft range across exposed stretches of coast in NENSW is expected. This will grade bigger towards the MidNorth Coast- where 4-5ft surf is more likely  and smaller into SEQLD where size in the 3ft range is expected. It’ll be raggedy and raw due to the fetch proximity and local winds in NENSW so expect to seek shelter and lose some size, though even sheltered locations should see plenty off surf due to the swell direction.

The second half of next week should see conditions start to settle as the trough/low system migrates E away from the coast, allowing local pressure gradients to ease. 

With model divergence escalating through the second half of next week it’s likely predictions will need to be revised heavily on Fri or Mon. The most likely outcome is a slow ramping down in size from the E through E/SE with a lingering E’ly flow, possibly tending to morning land breezes late next week.

Plenty more tropical developments look in store for the first week in Jan, with models suggesting a tropical depression or even cyclone crossing Cape York Peninsula, possibly reforming into coast hugging low early in the New Year, possibly generating a large swell from the NE for SEQLD.

We’ll be looking at plenty of wind and swell to finish off the year, with lots more action coming up to start it.

Check back Xmas Eve for a final look at the Xmas weekend and last week of 2021. Seeya then.