South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 20th Dec)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small E/NE tradewind swell holds surf at workable size Tues-Thurs with best winds in the morning
• Slight uptick in size from the E/NE Wed PM with N'ly winds
• Small SE/ESE swell favouring Mid North Coast up to Yamba Thurs, easing during Fri
• Small, long period S swell Fri/Sat, favouring NENSW S facing beaches
• Small blend of swells XMas Day offering a few options, best early
• Surf easing a notch Boxing Day
• Small S swells Tues/Wed next week
• Long range looking juicy for the tropics, stay tuned for details

Recap

The weekend was a game of two halves with the last pulse of SE swell providing some really fun surf across the region, ranging from 3ft in NENSW, slightly smaller 2-3ft across the border in SEQLD. Light morning winds provided excellent conditions before a’noon N’lies kicked in. Sunday was generally marred by decreasing surf and nuclear strength N’ly winds, which made a mess of everywhere except the most sheltered back beaches. There’s not much swell energy in the  water today, just a small grovel at exposed beaches before N’ly winds kicked in again. A weak, troughy S’ly change appears to have stalled at the far southern edge of the Mid North Coast, having disrupted the NE flow up to about Ballina. A troughy week is ahead with a few workable options in the lead-in to Christmas. Read on for details.

Very Spring-like looking line-up

This week (Dec 20-24)

Lots of wind changes and flukey swells ahead this week as a Spring looking pattern unfolds in the week leading up to Xmas. A trough pushing up the coast today stalls ands drifts north-east somewhere on the Mid North Coast while weak, mobile high pressure moves into the Tasman during this week. To the south a vigorous frontal passage tied to a complex dual-centred  low tracking slowly through 55S is passing well to the south of Tasmania, with a final front expected later Tuesday into Wed. 

The tropical South Pacific shows a dissipating low tracking south of Vanuatu today, with only a short fetch length of 20-25 knot winds, before it quickly slips south into the Tasman Sea. All in all, it adds up to small, flukey swell sources for the week.

In the short run, NE winds maintain through the region during tomorrow as a weak high pressure ridge sets up in the wake of todays stalled trough. Not much swell is expected, a mix of weak signals from tradewinds out towards New Caledonia from the E/NE, topping out around 2ft+ at open exposed beaches.  Keep expectations very low for tomorrow. 

Surf maintains that just workable size into Wed, with continuing N’ly winds, lighter NW inshore early. We should see a slight uptick in juice through the a’noon, generated by the dissipating low that tracked south from Vanuatu. It won’t be much, just another foot or so on top of the 2ft sets, but worth factoring in if you can get to a local backbeach that will offer protection from N’ly winds.

A S’ly change is on the cards for south of the border Thurs, tied to an advancing trough and the passage of the last front in a series passing south of Tasmania. Models show this trough running out of steam somewhere on the North Coast, or possibly stalling out around the border somewhere. Either way, it’s likely to lead to light and flukey winds Thurs, S’ly south of the border and variable in SEQLD. There won’t be a great deal of change in the dominant swell train, which will continue to be a weak signal from the E-E/NE. Again, likely topping out around 2ft with the odd bigger wave at local swell magnets. South of the border, S facing beaches may pick up some small S swell in the 2ft range during the a’noon, quality dependent on local winds. 

High pressure moves quickly into the Central Tasman Thursday with an angled trough line protruding off the Mid North Coast into the Tasman Sea. That’s likely to see a weak fetch of SE winds along the trough line and pushing into the region. Expect short period SSE/SE swell from that source, mostly on the Mid North Coast, later Thurs and into Fri.

The end of the working week, Xmas Eve, will not be one for the record books as far as surf goes. The trough remains slow moving in the Tasman, with a weak, reinforcing high moving East of Tasmania. That will maintain a slack to weak flow of SSE to SE winds, likely under or around 15 knots in the a’noon. Unfortunately, there won’t be much energy in the ocean. Background SE/ESE swell trains from the Central/Northern Tasman, weak E/NE energy, along with some small, longer period S swell, more prominent in the a’noon will be the sum of it. Again, we’ll be lucky to see anything much above 2ft during the day, likely 1-2ft. So bring the grovel board or whatever you need to get moving on small, weak surf.  Babyfood peelers on the Points will also be an option with S’ly quarter winds.

This weekend (Dec 25 - 26)

Santa isn’t going to be dropping too much surf down the Chimney for us, under current modelling. To start with the positive: light S to SE winds will be on offer as slack pressure gradients occupy the Tasman. With light land breezes offering clean conditions there should be a few traces of long period S/SSE swell still on offer south of the border. Not much size but 2ft at S facing beaches, with just very small surf north of the Border from that source. That signal will be augmented by continuing small surf from E/SE winds in the Tasman and some background E/NE swell adding up to 1-2ft. All up, offering some clean fun peaks in the morning, with light seabreezes kicking in during the a’noon.

Boxing Day continues the run of small surf. With a doldrums pattern of weak E’ly breezes in the Tasman there won’t be much swell energy on offer. More of the same weak blend of background swell trains in the 1-2ft range. Surf quality for the day will hinge on local winds, which should remain light and variable. Nothing to get excited about, but if you do get up for the early Boxing Day, bring a big/floaty board to the beach.

Next week (Dec 27 onwards)

A strong frontal progression is expected to transit the Tasman late on the Xmas weekend and early next week. The tail end of the the progression has a better angled fetch and is expected to supply a small pulse of S swell either later Tuesday in NENSW, with size speculatively pegged in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD.. 

A more dominant high pressure pushing in behind the front at a more S’ly latitude then sets up surf potential for the week leading into the New Year. 

There’s plenty of model divergence going into next week, with GFS suggesting a long, angled trough line forming along the advancing high pressure ridge, setting up a long fetch of SE winds through the Central Tasman, while EC suggest a much more compact trough off the Central NSW Coast, which quickly dissipates. 

We can pencil in SE to E/SE winds and swell from that quadrant from Tues into Wed, with local winds being the main problem at this stage.

Into the end of next week and major models are all suggesting a strong, monsoonal NW surge from the Arafura Sea out into the Coral Sea. This may spawn a Gulf of Carpenteria cyclone, which is no limited surf interest (unless it crosses Cape York Peninsula and reforms in the Coral Sea) as well as creating more tropical low pressure in the Coral Sea or South Pacific. 

The dominant high is expected to become slow moving through next week, which by itself, should see E’ly to ESE’ly winds through the Northern Tasman and Southern Coral Sea and be sufficient to generate workable levels of E to ENE swell through the latter half of next week. 

Longer range models are pointing to much more significant surf potential , as another dominant high moves into the Tasman, offering good support for any future tropical low pressure development. Long range GFS is pointing to low pressure development in the first week of the new year, potentially activating a major swell through that week.

That’s a long way away, so we’ll flag it for now and keep eyes on it through this week.

Check back Wed for the next update and have a great week.