On Thursday and Friday, a new Tasman Low will develop off the Southern NSW Coast and move slowly eastwards. The latest model runs have strengthened this low, broadened its fetch and slowed its eastwards track.

A slow moving low pressure system is currently off the QLD coast generating plenty of size for the subtropics. Windspeeds along the southern flank are just a notch higher than modelled on Wed so we’ve seen a corresponding uptick in size. 

We’ve got an interesting looking pattern as we transition into Summer, with both active frontal systems transiting below the continent and a precursor monsoonal trough across the top end of Australia. A front pushing into the Tasman Sea and a deeper parent low bring S swell pulses this week while a trough of low pressure is expected to hive off the precursor monsoon trough mid week and sit in the Coral Sea later this week, bringing plenty of  E swell for the Eastern Seaboard- especially favouring the sub-tropics for size and duration.

It now looks like we are seeing more action start up from the tropics with a cross-equatorial surge and monsoonal flow across Northern Australia into the Coral Sea. Vorticity along this surge and trough line may see low pressure develop in our swell window later next week.