South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 17th March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small E'ly swell for the weekend (not much size south from Yamba)
• Small, flukey S'ly swell at times over the weekend (not much size north from Byron)
• Extended run of decent trade swell building from Monday onwards, holding into the weekend
• Chance for a few embedded pulses of larger surf medium term- check back Mon for latest update

Recap

Leftovers supplied some really fun 2-3ft surf yesterday morning (biggest in the south, smaller in the north) with clean conditions lingering into the late morning before light onshore breezes. This morning has see mostly tiny surf across the entire f/cast region in the 1-2ft range with clean conditions and another hot, humid day with light winds. 

Just a few tiny, bluewater beachies on offer today

This weekend (Mar 18 - 19)

 No great change to the weekend f/cast. Weak high pressure moves into the Central Tasman at quite a high latitude, putting a weak block on fronts to the South, which pass through with poorly aligned fetches. In the lower Coral Sea and extending out into the South Pacific we have a long, disjointed tradewind fetch which will supply some small E swell this weekend with more size expected next week.

Clean conditions under weak pressure gradients are expected both mornings and with warm, inshore SST’s we should see glassy surf extend well into the mid-late morning. No great size is expected but a small increase on today should see some 2ft surf, possibly 2-3ft at some of the more reliable open beaches.

Similar surf expected for Sun with winds tending more E’ly in the a’noon in SEQLD, more E/NE to NE in Northern NSW and becoming fresh south of Yamba with a possible small NE windswell on the Mid North Coast. Should be some fun, glassy beaches both mornings.

Next week (Mar 20 onwards)

All eyes out to the Pacific swell window this week with a typical late Summer/early Autumn pattern setting up. Low pressure centres well to the East of Fiji (near American Samoa), west of Fiji and NW of New Caledonia will all chug away on a long tradewind belt setting up presently and enhanced by a dominant high pressure cell moving SE of Tasmania early next week. 

In addition we’ll see a reasonable strength front track NE into the Tasman and while winds aren’t ideally aligned it will add some S to SSE swell in the mix from mid next week.

Monday sees light and variable winds through the morning under a troughy pattern, with winds tending E-E/NE in the a’noon. Tradewind swell should push up a notch into the 3ft range during the day after an under-sized start and winds look light enough for all day options.

SE-ESE winds develop Tues as the dominant high drifts E of Tasmania and sets up a ridge along the sub-tropical coast. The should be light early before reaching moderate strength with cleanest surf on the N facing Points. We’ll see a further increase in size to 3-4ft primarily from the fetch near New Caledonia.

Winds look quite light through Wed as a trough hovers near the Coast, possibly seeing a morning land breeze before ESE-E winds kick up. If they stay light we’ll see some OK beachies with the cleanest surf again on the Points and size remaining in the 3-4ft range. A small amount of S swell will be in the mix across NENSW and SEQLD S facing beaches (likely confined to the Gold Coast swell magnets) adding some 2ft energy.

Through the end of next week we’re likely to see variable winds Thurs as the trough moves offshore, tending NE through Fri as reinforcing High pressure cells move in from under the Bight. 

Through this period we’ll continue to see small E’ly tradewind swell filtering down from the South Pacific and Coral Sea tradewind belt, although nothing much more than 2ft+ is on the menu at this stage. 

A front tracking NE into the Tasman let next week into the weekend offer up potential for more small S swell pulses late next weekend/early week of 26/3 but we’ll have to see how it plays out before making any calls.

Also on the radar next week we’ll be watching a low pressure system in the Coral Sea which has been lingering for days as a diffuse system. There looks to be more organisation later next week, possibly with a S-SE recurvature if the system intensifies into a tropical cyclone.

That's a long way away and a few things still have to go right before it becomes a swell source our region- but we’ll keep tabs on it and see how it’s shaping up on Mon morning.

Have a great weekend and seeya then!