South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 6th March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Traces of long period S swell Fri and Sun/Mon- only showing in NENSW
• TC Judy and TC Kevin now likely to drift quickly SE through swell window and not produce any major size- few sets expected Sun-Tues
• N’lies Mon-Wed with small surf- NE windswell biggest on the Mid North Coast
• Small S swell only showing at NENSW S facing beaches Thurs-Sun
• Long range E swell supplies small inconsistent sets Fri-Sun
• S’ly change expected later Sun or Mon  
• More E/NE-NE winds next week with small E swell developing

Recap

Fun options over the weekend Fridays increase in E swell holding through Sat with surf to 3ft+ across most of the region and SE winds. Sunday saw a pulse of longer period E/NE swell almost certainly from a slight slowing of TC Judy- with 4ft sets reported from Sunshine Coast to Gold Coast, inclusive of SEQLD Islands. Longer period S swell also made landfall with sets to 4ft south of the border and some bigger 4-5ft waves reported from far Northern NSW in the a’noon. Conditions were favourable with light winds all day. Today has seen smaller surf with easing S and E swells supplying 3ft sets early and light winds now tending NE and freshening. 

Fun Point surf Sat

Clean beachies options this morning before the Nor-easter got up

This week (Mar6-10)

The synoptic set-up is split into two opposing camps at present with an active monsoon trough and monsoonal low in the Gulf of Carpentaria linked to an inland trough which is drawing down hot air from the Pilbara into NSW. Opposed to the strong tropical signal we have a large complex low pressure gyre approaching from the Southern Ocean, with a cold signal expected to just spread into temperate NSW. Unfortunately this strong cold outbreak now looks to stall just too far West (behind the swell shadow of Tasmania) to really deliver any strong S swell to the East Coast, before weakening as it moves into the Tasman Sea swell window proper. 

In the short run and we’ve got unseasonal N’lies on the cards for Tuesday as the complex low approachesp- they will tend fresh/strong  from Byron southwards, with a small amount of NE windswell south of Yamba. For the rest of the region expect a small blend of E swells from the Pacific corridor and easing S swell leftovers, all totalling to 2-3ft at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere with clean conditions confined to backbeaches.

NW’ly winds then kick in Wed as a front pushes through Bass Strait and we get Spring style pre-frontal winds. Not much surf expected Wed with small E’ly leftovers in the 2ft range, along with some small NE windswell to 1-2ft, clean at backbeaches under NW winds. 

A weak high pushing through the Bight at a more Northerly latitude combines with the slow moving low to drive a W/NW- NW flow across the sub-tropics Thurs, with winds tending N’ly in the a’noon as a weak ridge establishes. No great size is expected as a small blend of E swells from the remnants of TC’s Judy and Kevin in the South Pacific keeps size in the 2ft range, along with traces of S swell to 1-2ft at S facing beaches in NENSW.

The working week finishes with more small surf - topping out at around 2-3ft at E facing beaches under current modelling with some small S swell in the mix. We can’t rule out a bit more S swell if the low under Aus moves E a little and brings swell generating fetches more directly into the swell window. But for now, the outlook is for small S swell and we finally get a S’ly change as a trough works it’s way north. This change may arrive Thurs so check Wed for timing.

This weekend (Mar 11-12)

Light winds Sat AM look to tend E/NE’ly to NE’ly as high pressure moves off the NSW Coast into the Tasman . There is a a trough approaching but a S’ly change looks to be confined to later Sun, at this stage.

More small S swell for Sat, with a slight better period and quality expected and sets up a notch to 2ft at S facing beaches. As mentioned the remnants of TC’s Judy and Kevin linger in the South Pacific, with a long fetch right on the edge of our swell window through this week. That’s likely to see a small increase in inconsistent but good quality E-ESE swell to 2-3ft through Sat, easing slowly through Sun.

A trough of low pressure off the Sydney area Sun, brings S’ly winds up as far as Coffs with N’lies through the rest of the region and continuing long range E swell and some small S swell. All up supplying inconsistent 2-3ft surf at open beaches. 

Next week (Mar13 onwards)

High pressure tracks quickly NE into the Tasman early next week and becomes elongated. A tough moving north brings S’ly winds Mon before wind tend more E/NE to NE’ly Tues.

 The passage of a last frontal system through the lower Tasman over the weekend delivers a longer period S swell pulse late Mon/Tues, along with potential building NE windswell, more likely on the Mid North Coast. Expect some 2-3ft sets from the S and NE windswell potential. We’ll dial in size and timing for that during the week. 

The more N’ly position of the high pressure cell is a feature more typical of Spring than Autumn (see below) and it looks to continue an E/NE’ly to NE’ly biased wind regime through to to mid next week at least, with small NE windswell a possibility.

We should see an increase in E’ly swell from winds in the Coral Sea with a succession of weak, monsoonal lows perched along a long trough line extending out into the South Pacific. 

An approaching inland trough system next week will be watched for any signs of low pressure development once the trough system reaches the very warm water of the Tasman Sea. 

In the mean-time looks like some Spring-like N’ly winds to get through. 

Check back Wed for the latest.