South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 24th March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small fun surf again this weekend with light winds and morning offshores likely- variable winds all weekend- tending S'ly south of Yamba
• More small Tradewind swell into the medium term some small, long range E swell in the mix early next week
• Small long range S swell in the mix Mon next week
• Stronger S swell Wed and Fri
• Dynamic outlook ahead next week, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Fun sized surf has persisted with yesterday seeing more 2-3ft surf with slightly bigger 3ft sets from the SSE in NENSW. Light onshore winds were on offer most of the day with some glassy periods reported across the region as local winds dropped right out. Today has seen similar size surf with clean conditions early extending well into the day under light land breezes tending light N/NE through the a’noon. 

Finally a nice clean morning on the beachies

This weekend (Mar 25-26)

No great change to the weekend’s f/cast. A trough moves out into the Central/Northern Tasman and stalls as a SE/NW angled line but weaker than modelled previously. That should see light/variable winds across most of the region, tending to light S’lies from the Coffs to Yamba stretch. Surf will have eased a notch from today with small clean waves in the 2ft range expected. 

Sunday looks more of the same. Variable winds around a troughy area across the North Coast most likely light land breezes early, tending SE-NE through the a’noon with no great strength. A small blend of E swells in the 2ft range with a few long range sets possible in the a’noon to 2-3ft. 

Next week (Mar 27 onwards)

Monday’s still looking a better bet for long period S swell from an intensification and slight NE movement of a frontal progression and parent low early in the weekend. We’re still expecting to see S swell wrap in with periods in the 14-15 second range, and size in the 3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW. Small amounts of S swell will get north of the border but the dominant swell trains there will be small long range E swell to 2ft+ and residual tradewind swell to 2ft. We should see early W/NW winds tending NW with a period of variable winds light/mod N’lies kick in.

Incredibly we’re still looking at tremendous model divergence for next week which makes for low confidence in forecasts, especially local winds.

EC is still firm on the trough moving out into the Tasman, deepening and interacting with a large high driving SE-ESE winds through the Tasman and generating moderate swells from that direction from Wed onwards. They suggest another inland trough exiting the coast near Gippsland Wed bringing NW winds before a S’ly change Thurs.

GFS has the trough retrograding back towards Tasmania with continuing NW to N’ly winds across th region with a troughy patten and S’ly change Fri/Sat.

Looks like we will be in for a bumpy ride for local winds next week but periods of offshore and NW breezes look highly likely until Fri. 

Swells look easier to call. Long period S swells will be the dominant swell trains next week as a complex deep low traverses the far southern Tasman Sea and becomes slow moving in New Zealand longitudes (see below). The fetches aren’t perfectly aligned so, as per most of these events, there’ll be a big spread of sizes even for S facing beaches and certain outliers especially deepwater adjacent reefs will show more size due to period focusing effects. Also in the mix will be long range E-ESE swell which will supply inconsistent 2ft+ sets through Tues/Wed and some closer range trade swell to 2ft+.

Mondays S pulse looks to slowly retract in size Tues with 2ft sets at S facing beaches and NW winds (we’ll fine-tune on Mon).

Wednesday should see a stronger S swell fill from a low passing through Sun/Mon, with the head of the fetch reaching close to Tasmanian latitudes. Expect 3ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSWm smaller 2ft at SEQLD S facing beaches, with uncertain winds. Possibly favourable for a wide swathe of S facing beaches under GFS scenario. Keep in mind this could all be overlayed by moderate SE-ESE swell from the Tasman under the EC scenario!

The end of next week looks even more unpredictable as far as winds go. Thurs could be fresh S’lies or light NW’ers. Looks like Wed’s pulse will climb down rapidly.

Friday looks interesting with the low stalling near the South Island and gales off the eastern edge of the ice shelf expected to see SSE groundswell slip up the Tasman Sea. Local winds permitting we should see some inconsistent 2-3ft sets later Friday along with more local S swell if we see a low develop SE of Tas Thurs.

That low looks set to build bigger S swells into next weekend.

Expect major revisions on local winds when we come back Mon, but good windows do look highly likely and we’ve got high confidence that the next week will be dominated by S swell pulses.

Check back then and have a great weekend!