Lots of S quarter swell and wind from the same direction this weekend. With the trough extending out from the NSW South Coast towards the South Island, and a long fetch of S/SSE gales developing through the lower Tasman, there’ll be no shortage of size.
Primary tabs
Further north from Yamba up into SEQLD, swell will be mostly generated by a broad coverage of ESE winds in the Southern Coral Sea and Northern Tasman.
Dominant high pressure sits just East of Tasmania by Mon next week, directing a strong E’ly flow, likely enhanced by the remnants of the interior low sitting off the Central/Mid-North NSW Coast.
Weak fronts are below the country and an inland low is tracking across from WA, tied to the continuing pattern of interior troughiness which is associated with a developing La Nina pattern. This pattern, which has been with us for most of the last few weeks, is expected to see continuing small, flukey swells into the medium term.
A deep mid-latitude low with high pressure support in the Bight and multiple cold fronts has now moved E of Tasmania with W to SW gales pushing out of Bass Strait and a deeper SSW fetch pushing up from the Southern Ocean into the Tasman Sea. It’s a wintry looking system and it has a nice sting in the tail as a small troughy intensification slingshots up into the Tasman Sea through tomorrow, giving another longer period pulse S swell to add onto the main body of the swell.
Winds will be from the Western quadrant all weekend and the surf is likely to be ironed flat in SEQLD, with the small S swell trains on offer not likely to make landfall north of the border, save a few small peaks at the mouth of the Tweed.
No great pressure gradient squeezes are on offer at present with only flabby high pressure drifting NE in the Tasman sea. Weak swells and wind changes continue.
Pressure gradients are weak across our main swell windows and through the region as an interior trough drifts NE and a weak, troughy area extends out into the Tasman sea, without creating much of a squeeze on a weak high pressure centre over New Zealand.
The fetch out of Cook Strait, extending up past Taranaki Peninsula and into the Tasman sea looked good on ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes through Wed/Thurs, with areas of storm force winds embedded in a long fetch of severe gales to low end gales. With the buoys and observations already confirming the swell it’s only local winds we’ll be concerned with.
The good news for our surf prospects is a complex low pressure system located just NE of the North Island is strong enough and large enough to generate severe gales to low end storm force SE/ESE winds out of Cook Strait, adjacent to the Taranaki peninsula and extending out into the Eastern Tasman sea.