South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 20th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Easterly swells to hold all week, biggest south of the border
• NW winds favouring open beaches Wed
• S/SE flow redeveloping from Thurs onwards, becoming gusty over the weekend
• Solid mix of E'ly swells building over the weekend
• Blend of short and longer period S swells over the weekend in the mix
• Pulses of longer period S swell on the menu next week, Mon/Tues and Thurs
• More E'ly swell to persist next week, probably with similar SE winds

Recap

Plenty of energy from the E and SE yesterday with sets still in the 3-4ft range, although marred by a N’ly wind which kicked up in the a’noon. Size has backed down today, with sets in the 2-3ft range in NENSW,  a little weaker in SEQLD. Winds have been tricky with a trough pushing up the coast. Mostly NW to N, with areas of more W’ly winds in some areas. Areas from Coffs southwards have seen S’ly winds. That saw some backbeaches turning on through the day in the north of NSW, with a mixed bag elsewhere.

Clean peaks before the N'ly hit it

This week (Apr 20 - 22)

No great changes from Mondays f/cast notes. The remnants of a trough which drifted off the West Coast of the North Island have maintained E swell with a boost in size expected through Wed a'noon. A trough is now creeping up the NSW Coast bringing a stiff S/SW to S’ly change which should be embedded through the entire region through Thurs morning, with a parent low well to the South of Tasmania.

Further out in the South Pacific, well to the NE of the North Island, the remnants of the long trough line through the eastern swell window, have deepened, with a broad fetch of E/NE to E winds now activated ( see below)

Fetch to the North of the North Island generating good quality E swell for the region

Behind this busy little synoptic pattern a monster high is tracking into the Bight. That will build a summer-style looking ridge along the coast (stronger in the North) through the medium term.

Looking at the rest of the working week and you’ll want to get in early Thurs morning with the morning SW breeze. There’ll be a mixed bag of easing E swell and shorter range S swell with both sources topping out around 3ft at exposed breaks. A small amount of short range S swell is expected to kick up in the south of the region through the a’noon, with winds becoming entrenched from the SSE to SE and freshening through the a’noon. 

Friday will be marred by SE winds, as the large high ridges in behind the Thursdays cold front. There’ll be a brief period of lighter winds during the morning- on the Southern Gold Coast- but they won’t last long and exposed S facing coastlines will struggle from the get go. There’ll be a mixed bag of swell trains on offer. Some small amounts of residual E swell to around 2ft across the region to start with. Through the a’noon we’ll see increasing amounts of shorter range ESE swell as well as S swell from the cold front. Those swell sources will mostly favour NENSW, with size pushing up into the 3ft range, although SE winds will confine cleaner and smaller surf to more sheltered breaks. SEQLD should see surf a notch smaller in the 2-3ft range.

This weekend (Apr 23 - 24)

Still on track for some nice waves this weekend, although SE winds will confine most of ‘em to the Pointbreaks. The ridge built along the coast will maintain a fairly fresh S to SE flow with only brief windows of lighter winds inshore early. A morning SW flow is most likely confined to the Southern Goldy and Far Northern NSW, where microscale circulations have a greater impact.

South and E/SE swelltrains make up the majority of the energy Sat morning.   That will see surf around the 2-3ft range across most of the region, bulking up a notch into the 3ft range through the a’noon. Through the a’noon we should see a few sets from the E as the swell trains generated from the fetch to the NE of the North start to make landfall. It’s running slightly later than indicated Mon so keep expectations low but by close of play we should see some 3ft sets across exposed stretches late Sat.

The Autumnal mixed bag continues Sun. New long period S swell fills in during the day, along with the mid-period E from the North Island source, and some mid period S swell generated from the active storm track through the lower Tasman. Those intersecting swell trains would make for classic peaky conditions across the Beachies with the wind being the inhibiting factor. If you can find a semi-protected beachie early it will be worth the effort. Size will remain in the 3ft range across open stretches, with some bigger sets likely at S facing magnets through the a’noon. Again, the cleanest surf will be found on the sheltered Points and wave size will grade smaller the more protected it is.

Next week (Apr 25 onwards)

We’ll start next week with a mix of swells: mid period E from the North Island and a strong pulse of long period S swell. The storm activity below the continent reaches a peak through Fri/Sat and although most of the fetch is zonal and poorly aimed at the East coast the windspeeds in the fetch and sheer size of the storm look to send a solid pulse our way. 

The ridge remains intact to start the week off so we’re looking at SE winds to kick us off Monday, and these winds will extend into Tuesday, although at lighter levels.

Swell from the North Island source should peak Mon in the 3-4ft range, with some bigger sets on offer at the more noted E swell magnets. Through the day long period S swell will extend up the coast, likely in the water early on the Mid North Coast and up to the border by mid-morning, with sets to 4ft at S facing beaches. SE winds will again confine clean conditions to the Points.

E swell from the North Island backs down through Tues, with early 3-4ft sets trending down to the 3ft range during the day. Long period S swell holds sets in the 4ft range at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere. The ridge does slacken on Tuesday, so we’re in with a better chance of morning offshore winds. We’ll finesse that on Friday.

By mid next week the dominant high moves into the Tasman, weakening as it does so and becoming elongated. That will reduce the blocking power and local winds speeds as the pressure gradients ease along the coast.

Surf-wise the activity from the S will keep the southern swell window active through to the end of next week. The storm system becomes slow moving and more meridional (N-S) as to tracks under the South Island which sends another pulse of long period S/SE well our way, expected late Thurs next week, in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches. 

S swell then eases back to end the next working week, with light winds.

Longer term and summer-style E’ly winds through the Northern Tasman and Coral Sea should see a fun regimen of E tradewind swell start to build  next through mid week and into the weekend 30 April. Better quality E swell looks likely to follow as the fetch builds in the South Pacific window.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how that is shaping up as well as take a last look at the weekend ahead.

See ya then.