South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon 11th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Stacks of E'ly swell Tues, easing from Wed
• Fresh S/SE winds extending along the coast at some point Tues (W/SW winds ahead of the change)
• Smaller swell mix in SE Qld Thurs/Fri, though a strong S'ly swell in NNSW
• Building E/SE swells over the weekend, ideal for the points with S/SE winds, size holding Mon but easing from Tues
• S'ly swells to kick in longer term

Recap

Strong, persistent east swells maintained anywhere from 4ft to 6ft surf across the region over the weekend, though winds were a problem on Saturday with E/NE breezes at many spots. Sunday saw pockets of early offshores tend fresh southerly through the day, and today’s delivered similar conditions across a broader swathe of coastline, as a second, stronger pulse of E’ly swell nudged wave heights into the 5-6ft+ range at exposed spots. Some epic waves have shown up across the regional points, as per the grab below from our (updated) Greenmount surfcam.

This week (Apr 12 - 15)

TC Fili is still active within our swell window, and will probably only transit into the New Zealand swell shadow tomorrow, which means some form of east swell all week. 

We’ve got another strong pulse expected to fill in tomorrow, of a similar size as per today, though the timing is not clear so we need some elasticity around potential wave heights. That being said, another day with occasional 5-6ft sets at exposed beaches (smaller on the points) seems quite reasonable. A slow easing trend will then set in from Wednesday into Thursday however it’s unlikely to drop below 2-3ft from this source in SE Qld, and 3-4ft in Northern NSW. 

Local conditions look ideal for the regional points (again!) with a shallow southerly change reaching the Mid North Coast early morning, extending across Far Northern NSW mid-late morning and then SE Qld into the afternoon. Ahead of the change, expect early W/SW winds though the southerly will become gusty in its wake.

A firm ridge across Northern NSW will then deliver four or five days of S/SW tending S/SE winds.

The ridge will concurrently stretch out into the Tasman Sea, delivering a small short range SE swell for the region (later Wed/Thurs) however we have a couple of more prominent groundswells on the way for the end of the week.

The first will be out of the south. It’s due to reach the Mid North Coast early afternoon Thursday, though may not reach the far North Coast until overnight, and thus Friday is a better day to see the most size.

This energy will have been generated by a deep low well south of Tasmania today though the acute southerly direction will create a wide range in wave heights, from 4-6ft at south facing beaches across the Mid North Coast, more 4-5ft in Northern NSW but very little showing in SE Qld away from south swell magnets (which may pick up stray 2-3ft sets at exposed northern ends). Beaches not open to the south will be considerably smaller.

The other energy for the end of the week - showing best over the weekend - is an east swell, originating from a deepening surface trough across the northern Tasman Sea from Thursday onwards (actually, the renmants of Tuesday’s southerly change, which will have stalled in the Coral Sea). This is expected to build E’ly swells from 2-3ft to 3-5ft across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (by late afternoon) though we’ll see smaller surf south of here at first. Freshening SE winds will confine the best waves to the semi-exposed points. 

This weekend (Apr 16 - 17)

The deepening trough in the Tasman Sea looks set to deliver strong E/SE swells across the coast all weekend (tending SE north of the border), peaking Sat/Sun with wave heights in the 5-6ft+ range at exposed coasts. Expect smaller surf across the points though they’ll be your best bet under a prevailing S/SE airstream.

We’ll also see some southerly swell in the mix - mainly south of the border - though the E/SE swell will be dominant.

Another great weekend of waves on the way, if your paddling arms can handle it!

Next week (Apr 18 onwards)

The weekend’s E/SE swell will hold into Monday and then gradually ease from Tuesday onwards. 

Elsewhere, and the long term is suggesting an amplifying Long Wave Trough over the eastern states during the first half of next week, and a steady supply of frontal systems generating back-to-back southerly swells through the second half of the week. Certainly can’t see any shortage of swell ahead, anyway!

See you Wednesday.