South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 15th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Punchy E/SE swell for the next few days with fresh S/SW tending S/SE winds
• Better E/SE swells Mon thru' Wed with generally light winds
• Strong round of S'ly swell from about Thurs onwards (biggest in Northern NSW), probably windy for a period too

Recap

Trailing east swell from TC Fili came in a little better than expected on Thursday, pushing a solid 4ft south of the border and 3ft in SE Qld, with good waves along the points. We saw fresh southerlies develop through the day as a change pushed up the coast, and gusty conditions have hung around for today as a short range E/SE swell has built across the region. A southerly swell has also been in the water across Northern NSW though coming in a little under size expectations with sets in the 3-4ft range at south facing beaches. 

This weekend (Apr 16 - 17)

Looks like more of the same for the next few days, thanks to a persistent S/SE airstream. This will relegate the best waves to the sheltered points and southern ends.

The developing trough in the northern Tasman Sea is reaching maturity as we speak, which means we'll see a broad peak in size through Saturday, probably holding into Sunday but perhaps starting a slow downwards trend. 

Wave heights will be biggest across the Far Northern NSW coast with sets to 4-5ft, elsewhere expect slightly smaller surf on the Mid North Coast (3-4ft) and SE Qld open beaches (4ft), with slightly smaller surf again along the points. They'll be your best bet under these conditions though.

There'll also be some south swell in the water in Northern NSW early Saturday and late Sunday (from a brand new pulse) but it'll sit below the more dominant E/SE energy.

Next week (Apr 18 onwards)

The northern Tasman trough will push close to New Zealand from Saturday into Sunday and strengthen a small fetch of gale force easterly winds within our swell window (see below).

Wave heights should maintain the weekend's size into Monday, if anything down a smidge though still likely 3-5ft across Northern NSW, 3-4ft across SE Qld's open beaches (smaller on the points), though the Mid North Coast will benefit from the better weekend positioning of the fetch (so, size should increase a touch, to 3-5ft). 

A small easing will occur into Monday afternoon, Tuesday and Wednesday (maybe half to one foot or so), though a brief pulse of embedded bigger surf is possible Wednesday morning (from the developing gales later Sunday) - however it won't push much higher than the pre-existing surf. Either way, with light winds across the region as the weekend's coastal ridge weakens, there'll be a couple of great day of waves to pick and choose from. Only risk of a lingering SW tending S/SE flow will be north from Ballina on Monday, everywhere else should be light and variable.

Elsewhere, and more long period southerly energy will glance the coast early next week, though sourced from much less favourably aligned frontal systems in the Southern Ocean. This will cap surf size at an extremely inconsistent 2-3ft at south facing beaches on the Mid North Coast through later Monday and Tuesday.

Looking further ahead, and the Tasman trough will weaken temporarily around Tuesday, off the west coast of New Zealand's North Island, but model guidance suggests the broader pattern may re-establish a new E/NE fetch to the NE of the North Island around Wednesday, generating a short lived E/NE swell for the region around next weekend (size in the 2-3ft+ range).

However there is a much more dominant pattern shaping up for the longer term. 

An amplifying Long Wave Trough just to the west of Tasmanian latitudes early in the week will initially lie on the periphery of our swell window for a few days, but should slide more favourable east by Thursday, allowing strong fronts to race up the western Tasman Sea.

This is expected to generate a sustained period of large, and sometimes wind affected southerly swells from Thursday onwards - favouring Northern NSW with the most size - holding through the weekend and the first half of the following week.

Certainly no shortage of surf ahead though it looks like our long running easterly pattern may be about to take a break, and focus to the south for a while.

See you Monday!