South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 22nd Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• SE winds set in at mod/fresh strength all long weekend, favouring Points.
• Solid mix of E'ly swells building over the long weekend 
• Blend of short and longer period S swells over the weekend in the mix
• Pulses of longer period S swell on the menu next week, Mon/Tues and Thurs
• E'ly tradewind swell rebuilds later next week into the weekend, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Some fun waves around yesterday with generally clean 2-3ft surf but some real outliers with swell magnet beachies up in the 4ft range. Light winds tended variable through the day, even turning W’ly through the a’noon on the Far North Coast. S’ly winds have become more established through today, with surf bottoming out in the 2-3ft range, smaller 2ft or less in SEQLD.  

Smallest it's been for a while, with a rebuild expected for the weekend

This weekend (Apr 23 - 24)

Not much change to the long weekend f/cast.  The chief factor will be wind and there’ll be plenty of it from the SE, as a dominant high moving across Tasmania builds a very firm ridge along the sub-tropical and tropical coasts of NSW and QLD. 

We’re looking at a sustained period of SE winds over the long weekend which will confined clean conditions to protected Points. There’s only brief periods of lighter winds inshore early and only likely to be true offshore at a few select places in Far North NSW and the Southern Gold Coast.

Surf-wise we’ll see increasing size through Sat from a variety of sources. The ridge itself will see increasing SE winds proximate to the coast which will build an increasing short range SE/ESE swell through Sat, with size building from a small 2ft to the 3-4ft range during the day.

Better quality E swell from a stalled trough NE of the North Island will make landfall during the day with sets to 3ft filling in during the a’noon. Some longer period S swell in the mix is unlikely to really make an impact given the wind conditions prevailing over the weekend but is expected to add some energy into the mix. All told it adds up to some small fun surf on the Points and larger, unruly surf at more exposed spots. 

Sunday repeats the dose. SE winds and a blend of swell trains. A mix of E and shorter range SE-E/SE swell will boost surf a notch into the 4ft range but again, you’ll have to do battle on the Points or make do with ragged conditions at more exposed breaks. Longer period S swell will again add some energy into the mix. 

Next week (Apr 25 onwards)

No great change to the ANZAC Day outlook. SE winds will remain with a slight easing of the pressure gradient offset by a slightly more E’ly tilt to winds in areas south of Yamba. Plenty of E swell from the North Island source as well with inconsistent 3ft surf and some bigger sets on offer. Short range ESE swell keeps chugging away in the 3-4ft range. We’re still on track for a nice pulse of long period S swell to start the week. Models have slightly downgraded the storm, with the fetch now a bit more mobile and zonally oriented (W-E). Nonetheless we’ll see good quality long lines from the S in the water Mon morning, with sets in the 3ft range across S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. Monday is more of the same mixed bag with best waves on the Points due to SE winds.

The trend will be start to head downwards into Tuesday with a smaller blend of leftover S swell in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches and a blend of mid period E swell in the 3-4ft range with a slight and slow easing expected during the a’noon.

A final S swell pulse from the strong series of front passing through the lower Tasman is expected Wed. This will see S facing beaches push back into the 3ft range through Wed - if the swell arrives as expecte

Wed morning is a safer bet for cleaner conditions as the high pressure ridge finally slackens off with long period S swell trains making landfall in the 3ft range. With swell periods up in the 15-17 second period band this will be another very directional pulse where certain S swell magnets will punch well above their weight, with some 4ft or even bigger sets on offer. 

Easing swells and light winds pad out the rest of next week. Looks like a couple of small days through Thurs and Fri with surf around 1-2ft with a small increase in new tradewind swell Fri, unlikely to exceed 2ft.

Longer term and a long tradewind fetch is expected to draw out into the South Pacific through next week. It’s well aimed at sub-tropical targets and we’ll expect to see  some small but building E swell on offer through next weekend. A front is also on the radar for next weekend with S swell potential. 

We’ll run the ruler over those prospects on Mon.

In the meantime, have a great long weekend!