Sunday, Monday, Happy Days (Tues, Wed, happy days too)

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 29th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Building E'ly swells from Saturday thru' to a peak Tues/Wed
  • Easing from Thurs but likely to hold into the next weekend and beyond
  • Chance for a small, flukey long period S/SE swell in Northern NSW on Sat, easing Sun (low probability though)
  • Risk of N'ly winds on Sat (mainly south from Ballina)
  • Fresh S'ly winds developing Sun, holding Mon, easing Tues
  • Light winds Wed

Recap

Small E’ly swells in the 2ft range on Thursday bumped up a touch today with occasional 3ft sets. There’s also been some minor south swell in the mix across Northern NSW. Onshore winds have maintained lumpy conditions but they haven’t been too detrimental.

This weekend (Apr 30 - May 1)

OK, before we move on to the obvious sources of surf for the weekend, it’s worth noting an unusual long period S/SE swell that’s showing on the charts for Saturday, mainly across Northern NSW. 

Its origin is unclear, as I’ve temporarily stepped back to the Forecast bench today, however a quick scan of the hindcast charts (below) shows a phenomenal polar low well SE of New Zealand last Tuesday, generating a Code Red swell for Tahiti - but it’s just on the periphery of our flukey SE swell window and will probably generate some small sideband intermittent energy for Australia's East Coast. 

The raw data (just under a metre at 14.5 seconds) suggests extremely inconsistent 2-3ft sets at regional swell magnets (south of Byron) building Saturday, easing slowly Sunday, but to be honest I’d be very way of anything from this source as the fetch developed very close to the NZ swell shadow, and quickly rotated away. So keep your expectations low and be pleasantly surprised if it produces anything at all.

Elsewhere, a broad trade flow developing in the northern Tasman Sea and South Pacific is already generating E/NE energy for our region, and we’ll see wave heights increase from 3ft on Saturday morning up to about 4ft by Sunday. The width and length of the fetch coupled with its distance from the mainland should offer comparable size across most coasts, though of course SE Qld and Far Northern NSW tend to do best under these patterns.  

As for local conditions, an approaching front across Southern NSW will freshen northerly winds throughout the Mid North Coast on Saturday. We won’t see anywhere near as much influence north from about Ballina but early variable winds will probably trend N/NE during the day so make the most of the early variable session for the best waves. 

A shallow southerly change will slide up the coast overnight Saturday and provide clean conditions under an early SW flow on Sunday, before winds tend moderate to fresh S’ly or even S/SE through the day. This will favour the semi-exposed points and sheltered spots.

Next week (May 2 onwards)

The broad trade pattern supplying the weekend’s easterly swell source will become enhanced over the coming days as a tropical low between New Caledonia and Fiji this weekend squeezes the synoptic flow (see below).

This will continue to build surf size through Monday ahead of a lengthy plateau from Tuesday into Wednesday, probably around 4-5ft at most coasts though a couple of the more reliable swell magnets (I’m thinking Far Northern NSW) could pick up 6ft sets at times. Of course, sheltered spots and some of the points will see smaller surf than exposed beaches.

Wave heights will then slowly taper off from Thursday onwards. However, another trough is modelled to develop south of New Caledonia around Mon/Tues and could very well boost surf size again from this quadrant later in the week.

Regardless, it’s likely we’ll see user-friendly easterly swells persisting through next weekend and maybe the start of the following week too. This is yet another extended, great run of swell for the region.

As for winds, Sunday’s S/SE flow will hold through Monday then ease from Tuesday. So, our peak in east swell should be accompanied by generally favourable conditions (Wednesday is looking at light offshores and afternoon sea breezes in most regions).

There’s a couple of flukey secondary swell sources in the outlook period too, but with such a strong forecast from the east they really doesn’t matter too much. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!

Comments

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Friday, 29 Apr 2022 at 6:44pm

This continued swell with lighter winds for a change is going to be the bomb!
Can't wait to tuck into the wave feast.

back beach's picture
back beach's picture
back beach Saturday, 30 Apr 2022 at 3:17pm

Big shout out to Nav. Huge win in Fiji, congrats and nmake sure the barstards rehab it right. Can you imagine what they're doing in the Solomons???
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-28/chinese-developer-fiji-resort-fin...

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Saturday, 30 Apr 2022 at 5:08pm

What time do you think the south wind will hit the GC tomorrow morning?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 30 Apr 2022 at 6:06pm

5.30 - 6 am

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Saturday, 30 Apr 2022 at 6:37pm

Perfect. Nice and early so it can ruin the beaches.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 30 Apr 2022 at 7:15pm

Super fun 3ft sets on the Tweed just before lunch, no wind for the most part until a light northerly cropped up. Saw some 3-4ft sets this arvo too, still reasonably clean.

mugofsunshine's picture
mugofsunshine's picture
mugofsunshine Saturday, 30 Apr 2022 at 7:47pm

Good bye grey skies, hello blue....

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 7:34am

Upcoming high tide starting to swallow things up, but the lines are still pretty nice.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 3:12pm

Was a bit meh this morning, disappointing.
Winds SW right now and its low, might be worth sniffin around a bit

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 3:44pm

pumping waves around right now.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 6:09pm

Agreed, cracking day on the GC beachies, this afternoon was magic, this morning good too, a real shame the sun set. The gutters are killing my arms tho.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 4:08pm

One set, thirty seconds ago. How's old mate on the red board, from image three onwards! (inside bank).








thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 4:14pm

How's the spray!

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 4:18pm

That MP?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 4:16pm

Good size reference.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 1 May 2022 at 4:22pm