Sunday however is still on track for a strong south swell to build through the day as a strong series of fronts push through the lower Tasman Sea.
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Confidence in the outlook for Thursday has plummeted. Main reason being: Monday’s read on the synoptics had anticipated a broad, slow upwards trend trough today, plateauing into Thursday mooring, then easing from Friday.
We've got a tricky week ahead with only flukey swell sources to work around.
This will kick up a fresh south swell for Sunday, though it’ll only get into a handful of exposed south swell magnets as it glances the coast.
With today’s SE swell punching above its weight, it’s a fair consideration to add a little more size on Thursday’s projection.
Today’s southerly swell is easing, and the general trend is downwards through the middle of the week.
Light winds will persist into Saturday but our current mix of SE and E/SE groundswells will ease from the get-go.
Our short range S’ly swells will be replaced by mid-range SE thru’ E/SE swells over the coming days.
A secondary fetch developing west from Cook Strait around this time will bolster a SE fetch in the southern Tasman Sea, offering moderate SE swells through the middle of the week ahead of another pulse of slightly bigger E/SE swell through Thursday afternoon and Friday.
For my money, you’re best off flagging the start of the week and aiming for Wednesday through Friday.