Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 23rd November)

Best Days: Sat/Sun/Mon: strong building S'ly swells, biggest Sunday, but with tricky winds. Most of Sat and early Sun should see W/SW winds. Tues: smaller, cleaner easing S/SW swell with light offshores. Wed: W'ly winds and a small mix of SE swell. Thurs onwards: more punchy S'ly swell. 

Recap: Thursday delivered flukey though generally very good quality SE swell to most coasts. There were extended periods of lully conditions at times, but many open beaches picked up 3ft+ sets at some point throughout the day and conditions were mainly clean with freshening offshore winds. Size eased slightly though still maintained 2-3ft sets this morning, before falling away to 1-1.5ft this afternoon, with offshore winds remaining quite brisk. A new pulse of S’ly swell is due late today but has yet to be detected anywhere across the coast.

Still some leftover SE swell on the Cenny Coast this morning

Early Friday lines at Maroubra

This weekend (Nov 24 - 25)

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Gale to storm force W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait this morning are generating some sideband S’ly swell that may arrive late this evening but is certainly expected to push through the region overnight.

These winds are associated with a deepening Tasman Low that’s expected to meander slowly through the western Tasman Sea for the next few days, and will deliver an extended period of short range south swell to our coast.

In addition to the energy due late today (which will then ease into the start of the weekend), Saturday morning should see building S’ly swell as the low starts to take shape. At this stage it's expected to reach maturity late Saturday, somewhere east of the Far South Coast, so our corresponding peak in south swell will probably occur Sunday morning or lunchtime. However the low will weaken only slowly as it tracks north. This means surf size will hold steady into Sunday afternoon and probably Monday too. 

As for size, Saturday should see early 3ft sets at south facing beaches (larger near 4-5ft across the Hunter) but much smaller elsewhere due to the direction. Wave heights should build by another foot or maybe two throughout the day, reaching a peak in the 4-6ft range on Sunday (again, bigger across the Hunter but smaller elsewhere not open to the south).

As for local conditions, as the low draws closer to our region we’ll eventually see winds swing more from the western quadrant to the southern.

Most of Saturday should see W/SW winds, tending SW into the afternoon (and S/SW in the Far South), but Sunday will see a much narrower window of early W/SW winds, and the rest of the day will become more broadly S/SW, or even southerly at some exposed regions. 

As such, the mornings will have the best conditions but Sunday afternoon should see options inside sheltered southern corners under the southerly flow. 

Next week (Nov 26 onwards)

Monday’s continuing strong southerly swell should maintain 4-6ft surf at south facing beaches (a little bigger through the Hunter, though much smaller elsewhere) before easing throughout the day. Current model guidance suggests the proximity of the low to our region will likely keep winds out of the S/SW at moderate to fresh strength, with only isolated regions seeing early SW winds. 

Wave heights will then ease steadily through Tuesday with early offshore winds providing nice conditions for the beach breaks.

A secondary E/SE fetch developing off the southern tip of New Zealand’s South Island on Sunday - somewhat related to the broader Tasman synoptic pattern - now looks a little off-axis from our swell window to be considered useful. Small SE swells are likely from this source through Tuesday and Wednesday through no major size is expected.

A small E’ly fetch located further north - essentially an infeed into the decaying Tasman Low, on Monday - may supply slightly better E/SE swell for our region, likely around Wednesday. At best, we’ll see slow, very inconsistent 2ft to maybe 2-3ft sets at swell magnets but not a lot elsewhere. I don't have a lot of confidence for our mid-week energy.

Local winds look a little suss on Tuesday with a strengthening N/NE flow as a broad surface trough crosses the eastern states, leading to a deepening Tasman Low from later Wednesday (W’ly winds kicking in during the morning), with Thursday then seeing strengthen southerlies and another large local S/SE swell for the last two days of the week, possibly holding into next weekend. 

More on that in Monday’s notes. Have a great weekend!