So, we've got a bloody good weekend coming up, it would seem.
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Next week looks very dynamic, with an upper trough approaching from the west, combining with an intense polar outbreak to generate either a deep Tasman Low or a possible East Coast Low.
What’s going to affect our surf much more prominently is a developing trough off the South Coast that’s expected to form a closed system during Thursday, possibly a Tasman Low (just an outside chance for an ECL now).
It doesn’t get much more complex than what we have in front of us right now. We've got a wide range of swells and possible an East Coast Low forming later in the week.
The synoptic are really busy for next week, and we have a wide variety of tricky swell sources on the way. In fact, most of the likely energy we’ll see will be generated from distant sources off the usual charts.
This swell was generated by an impressive polar low that pushed towards New Zealand late Monday and through Tuesday.
We’ve got a series of overlapping southerly swells due over the coming days, generated by strong, though poorly aligned frontal activity through the Southern Tasman Sea.
We’ve got a tricky weekend ahead, though there is plenty of potential.
While this is going on, the LWT will amplify south of Tasmania, focusing a strong polar front through our premium south swell window from Monday into Tuesday, generating large long period energy for the middle of next week. More in the Forecaster Notes.
Around the middle of the day (or possibly earlier) the leading edge of a long range, long period southerly swell will push up into the region, generated by an intense polar low sliding well south of SA, Victoria and Tasmania on Thursday.