Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 7th December)

Best Days: Sat/Sun/Mon: peaky NE swell, though bumpy at times. Best Monday AM with lighter winds, though size will be easing. 

Recap: Easing leftover southerly swell Thursday was replaced with a slowly building NE swell late afternoon, that’s increased marginally in size today. Winds have been up from the NE though we’ve seen periods of light conditions in the early mornings.

Friday morning NE peaks at Maroubra

This weekend (Dec 8 - 9)

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We’ve got a classic summer pattern ahead for the weekend, with a stationary high in the Tasman Sea and a mix of swells from the E/NE and NE.

The former will originate from the developing trade flow in the Northern Tasman atop the high pressure system, whilst the latter will be locally generated from the low’s western flank, directing moderate to fresh N/NE winds parallel to the NSW coast.

Unfortunately, these winds will also create bumpy conditions at most open beaches throughout the days, but size should hold 2-3ft at NE facing beaches most days, with smaller surf at south facing beaches and across the northern Hunter. A few slightly bigger waves are possible Sunday, and if we're lucky, the early mornings may offer brief periods of lighter winds across a handful of coasts. 

Next week (Dec 10 onwards)

Sunday’s mix of NE and E/NE swell will persist into Monday morning around 2-3ft+, though a steady easing trend is expected during the day thanks to a weak trough moving up from the south on Sunday, disrupting the local fetch.

Conditions should improve quickly as local winds ease though exposed beaches may still see some residual wobble thanks to Sunday night's persistent N'ly flow. 

The Tasman high will weaken on Monday so we’ll see easing energy from the E/NE trade swell from Tuesday onwards. A shallow southerly change in the wake of the trough (around Tuesday) probably won’t have enough strength or length to generate any meaningful swell for Southern NSW, but we may see some small waves at south facing beaches through Tuesday and Wednesday in the 2ft range. 

The longer term outlook has small peripheral swell sources for the rest of the week (including a couple off the NZ West Coast), with strengthening northerly winds from later Thursday, into Friday and Saturday - another local swell source - ahead of a trough moving across the eastern states next weekend, that may potentially evolve into a significant swell generating system later in the weekend or early in the following week.

More on that in Monday's notes. Have a great weekend!