Excellent run of swells ahead, under a wintry synoptic pattern
Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 19th November)
Best Days: Wed/Thurs: fun SE swell with offshore winds. Fri/Sat/Sun: solid S'ly groundswell, mainly offshore winds (gusty W'ly, easing over the weekend). Next week: more SE swell on the cards.
Recap: We've had plenty of fun surf over the last three days with a mix of SE and E/NE swells. Sunday delivered the most size up to 3ft+ at some exposed beaches, though in general we’ve seen 2-3ft surf throughout the period. Saturday saw early light winds ahead of developing SE winds through the afternoon; they persisted into Sunday morning but eased throughout the day offering good surf into the afternoon. Today has delivered light offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes.
This week (Nov 20 - 23)
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
We have a wide range of swells on the way, which is very exciting.
The current mix of SE and E/NE swells are on the way out, and will be very small by Tuesday - perhaps the odd stray 2ft sets at exposed beaches (out of the E/NE) in the morning, but with long breaks between waves, and smaller surf at south facing beaches.
Early light winds will pick up from the NE throughout the day, creating bumpy conditions through the afternoon and possibly some small windswell late in the day.
A strong front pushing through the lower SE corner of the Tasman Sea yesterday has reinvigorated the remnants of the low responsible for our small weekend SE swell, and this is strengthening a S’ly tending S/SE fetch off the west coast of New Zealand's South Island.
Whilst we may see some small sideband S’ly swell from the initial stages of this system on Tuesday afternoon, the main energy is expected to build slowly from Wednesday onwards towards a peak on Thursday, before easing into Friday. Wednesday morning should also see a small level of NE windswell.
Conditions look very good for both days. Overnight N’ly winds on Tuesday will ease by Wednesday morning to become light and variable very quickly, then tending NW into the afternoon. Strengthening W/NW winds are expected on Thursday as a vigorous front crosses the coast and a deep low forms east of Bass Strait.
It’s difficult to have confidence in the exact playout of this swell, because of the way the responsible low slowly evolves over the course of a few days - this will create a much less defined swell front, and we’ll probably see a gradual increase-plateau-decrease pattern rather than a rapid peak and then easing trend, as is more common.
At this stage I’m expecting Wednesday to build into the 2-3ft range at most coasts, possibly a few bigger sets across the Hunter region, with Thursday more likely to see stronger 3ft+ sets (again, wave heights may be marginally bigger across the Hunter), before size then eases from 2-3ft to 1-2ft into Friday. Surf size will be smaller at beaches not open to the south.
Friday however has a much more complex surf outlook.
Thursday's developing low east of Bass Strait is expected to remain quite zonally aligned (west-east), with a broad region of gale to storm force W’ly winds across the broader Southern NSW region.
Most of this swell will be aimed fair and square into New Zealand, however as we’re looking at seeing a slight degree of south in the fetch alignment (mainly exiting eastern Bass Strait - see below), we should see a decent spread up the Southern NSW coast, assisted by its slow moving nature - which is somewhat unusual.
This will generate a directional south swell offering a very wide variation in wave heights across the region, anywhere from 1ft at sheltered southern ends up to 3ft at most open beaches, whilst reliable south swell magnets - especially those along the Hunter region could see 4-5ft, maybe 4-6ft surf. All of which will be accompanied by gusty W’ly tending W/SW winds.
Either way, the back half of the week is looking very active with no shortage of surf on the cards. I’ll fine tune the specifics on Wednesday.
This weekend (Nov 24 - 25)
It’s probably too early to be overly specific for the weekend, as the Tasman Low looks like it will continue to influence our region, though with a gradual easing trend.
If anything, the broad picture anticipates a slow drift to the east, resulting in (eventually) a more southerly wind field, though mornings should at least offer W/SW winds. And at this stage, most of Saturday should be offshore too.
Current expectations are for both days to continue seeing a wide range in size thanks to the acute southerly swell direction, anywhere between 4-6ft at south swell magnets (mainly the Hunter), with smaller 3ft surf at remaining open beaches, down to 1ft inside sheltered southern corners. An easing trend is expected through Sunday though the early session should still be quite sizeable and punchy at exposed spots.
These figures require some elasticity right now (in fact, currently model guidance would pump up Saturday's estimates by a foot or two at south swell magnets), so let’s take a close pass on Wednesday.
Next week (Nov 26 onwards)
If the model guidance is to be believed, this Tasman Low will remain slow moving through the weekend, spinning up secondary S/SE fetches along its southern flank that’ll provide good SE swells through the start of next week.
Let’s wait and see how the next few days pan out, eh? It's certainly a fantastic outlook for mid-late November.
Comments
Been a bit of talk among the Swellnet staff about this coming summer. To wit, it's twenty years since the la nina summer of 1998/99, one of the best East Coast summers on record, when there was only a handful of days all season under three feet, an inordinate number of big swells, including the swell that sunk five yachts in the Sydney to Hobart, claimed six lives, and brought the term 'weather bomb' into the lexicon.
This weekend's swell isn't likely to bomb but it is forming in a similar manner and similar location as the Syd to Hobart storm.
Compare this chart, issued Christmas Day 1998, to the one above.
Fuck you boys are weather nerds.
That’s a compliment, in case you’re unsure.
Fingers crossed for all East coast surfers.
Nerd alert!
Though that's more Craig and Ben. Me, I'm cool as fuck.
Helps to tough out a dire spring season knowing that summer can sometimes, every now and again, pump from end to end, just as it did twenty years ago.
That makes two of us.
The Fonz was always a big role model for me. Emulating his winning moves seems like the obvious thing to do for a man on his way up the social ladder.
So if you think I’m cool now , wait till I start hanging out at a cafe with a bunch of school aged guys and calling a poorly lit public toilet “ my office “.
Heyyyyyy !!!!
Sure he's the right role model blowin?
Sounds like good news!
Very average year so far, at least from the perspective of this mostly weekend-only surfer.
I'm not liking this system at all. Thinking small and acute Saturday, a bit better Sunday but winds aren't great. Better swells and days over the next three which unfortunately doesn't help you :(
What never ceases to amaze me is how much the models can vary from run to run.
The current model at the BOM interactive maps has the the progression of the low going backwards once for every 3 steps forward.
This must make a weather/wave forecasters job pretty damn difficult at times!
I'm just happy there's no southerly change due this weekend, which has been a common theme this year.
Yeah super tricky as any slight movement east or west greatly affects the swell potential.
Whirling like a dervish down memory lane....
Hell of a cyclone season, was 98/99.
Bunch of good depressions before '199907' ran the length of the coast, then Dani, then Olinda, then Pete, the last two tracking inside New Cal, then Ella, then finally Frank which formed from the remnants of TC Rona, took a swipe at New Cal before taking another six days to wander down to the South Island. See map below.
I can't specifically recall TC Frank but I'd put money on a certain nerd from Lennox Head having a savant-like memory of it.
Loving the optimism stu
Make it so - have Crescent Head lodgings booked immediately following school holidays.
I actually think the summer of 15/16, on the back of a dying El Nino was the summer against which all summers should be measured.
what was amazing about it, was a small, clean and consistent El Nino winter (albeit marred by white shark attacks) left a whole heap of primo point break sand bars intact.
A strong S swell between Xmas 15 and NYE 16 shifted any remaining sand into position, and groomed already stacked banks.
That meant the next 6-8 weeks , or until TC Winston savaged Fiji and came in close and washed them all away- had primo to all-time Point banks AT EVERY POINT BREAK from Burleigh to spots unnamed.
A truly, truly rare occurrence.
Small days were fun as hell, any swell, and there was heaps meant epic surf.
Have to agree with freeride76 that was an awesome run of waves! With the lack of sand on the points atm I can’t see summer going down as one to remember.
As for this upcoming low, not sure what Ben said about it, but I'm with Craig.
Looks like a hoax to me: sits and sulks just off the Gippsland coast with the strongest winds on the wrong quadrant then moves into the Tasman and fizzles.
My son was born end of Jan '16...I remember the relentless run of waves over the last month where I was bolting in and out of the surf checking on the missus. It just wouldn't stop. On the day he was born it was 4-6ft and flawless all morning, labour kicked in about lunchtime, off to the hospital at 6 and born at 10:30pm. Best day of my life.
Nice peaky mix of swells, clean as winds swing offshore too.
New SE swell is in and it's looking tasty in Newcastle.