Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 30th November)

Best Days: Sat/Sun/Mon: good morning winds and easing E/SE swells, though only small Sun/Mon. Wed: easing S'ly swell, early light winds. 

Recap: Thursday was very solid out of the south, pushing 6-8ft at exposed spots, though conditions were windy with gusty southerlies on hand (SW across some coasts through the morning). The southerly swell eased throughout the day but was replaced with a strong E’ly swell that continued into this morning, punching slightly north of estimates (4-6ft compared to the 4-5ft forecast, though bigger waves were anticipated south of the Illawarra). Size has eased throughout the day and conditions have been generally quite clean with light winds and afternoon sea breezes. 

Good example of this morning's E'ly swell direction at Shark Island - note the tapering size of the outer swell line

Chunky bowls a-plenty too

Solid at Manly

This weekend (Dec 1 - 2)

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Today’s E’ly swell - whilst originating from the same Tasman Low that generated Thursday’s S’ly swell - was sourced from a secondary fetch, on the low’s southern flank.

This fetch is still quite strong and broad today, and will persist into Saturday, meaning it’ll supply swell all the way into Monday. However, the fetch is slightly north of east (in alignment) and is tracking E/SE, which essentially means it’s rotating outside of our swell window, aimed away from our region.

That being said, we’ll still continue to see useful E/SE swell all weekend (side note: despite the fetch being E/NE, it’s sitting at a more southern latitude, so the swell will spread back up the coast and thus be E/SE when it makes landfall). It’s also worth noting that we’ll see the largest waves across the Far South and South Coasts, with smaller surf as you head north into the Sydney and Hunter regions.

Saturday morning should ease steadily from 3-4ft to 2-3ft across Sydney beaches (a little smaller to the north, but bigger to the south). Sunday will ease further from a very inconsistent 2ft+, with the same size caveats as above. 

Winds look good in the mornings with light offshores but sea breezes are expected Saturday afternoon, and a gusty S’ly change is due late Sunday afternoon (earlier on the South Coast). There’s a risk that Sunday morning’s winds may see a little too much north in it but we should see offshores through the middle of the day. 

As such, Saturday morning is the pick of the weekend with the best winds and most size. 

Next week (Dec 3 onwards)

The models have slightly strengthened the fetch trailing Sunday’s late change, so we should have some average short range south swell for Monday with light offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes. Size should manage 2-3ft at reliable south swell magnets, mainly those in the Hunter, and it'll ease through the day.

Monday will also see persistent E/SE swell from the weekend, holding an inconsistent 2ft at most open beaches (bigger south from the Illawarra, as per the weekend’s notes). 

Tuesday looks a little dicey on the surface with a weak trough moving upon the coast, delivering moderate to fresh S/SE winds. This trough will be associated with a broad front and low moving through the Southern Tasman Sea, which will also kick up a decent south swell into the 3-4ft range at south swell magnets. However you’ll be better off waiting until Wednesday - the S’ly swell will be easing by this time but local winds will return to a light and variable pattern as a weak high moves in from the west. Expect much smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure. 

This low will move over to NZ around Tuesday, and a secondary system travelling behind will slow its eastward path, possibly kicking up a small SE swell for next weekend or thereabouts. Nothing worth worrying about at this stage though.

Long term prospects however look very promising for some parts of the East Coast - hopefully Southern NSW.

A stationary high in the Tasman Sea and a trough over SE Qld will steer winds around to the N/NE for Thursday and Friday, and with only small swells on offer there won't be much happening.

However, a developing tropical low near the Solomon Islands today is expected to drift SW towards the south-eastern tip of PNG over the weekend, and strengthen into Tropical Cyclone status.

This development is initially unremarkable, however the models are suggesting two exciting developments: (1) it’ll remain near stationary for five or six days, generating small long period N’ly swells (mainly favouring SE Qld), and (2) during the middle to latter part of next week, the Tropical Cyclone will drift S/SE through the Coral Sea and eventually into our NE swell window.

So, although we’re discussing events occurring quite some time away that require some elasticity in their expectations, I’ve had this system as a possible swell source in my notes since Wednesday - so confidence remains firm as the models hold true. As such, there is now increasing possibilities for a strong NE groundswell arriving across the NSW Coast sometime during the early to middle part of the following week.

More on this in Monday’s notes. Have a great weekend!