Barra da Tijuca is the primary location for the Billabong Rio Pro. Geographically it's quite similar to Seal Rocks with regards to the way it captures southerly swells moving up the Southern NSW coast. Offshore winds are from the north.

The backup location Arpoador faces slightly more south-east and accordingly picks up easterly swells better and is offshore in a north-west wind.

Swellnet's Brazilian correspondent Julio Adler says the current southerly swell should push sand into the corner at Arpoador, and when this happens it can turn it into a semi left point break.

As for the short-term outlook: a cold front pushing up from the south yesterday kicked up a fresh southerly swell but conditions were poor with the associated southerly winds.

This southerly swell will peak sometime this evening (AEST), providing 4-5ft sets with offshore winds for the second day of the waiting period.

Wave heights will then ease throughout the day and further into Friday. Morning offshore winds will precede afternoon sea breezes both days.

A new inconsistent southerly groundswell should arrive and peak on Saturday to 3-5ft as winds remain favourable from the north-northeast.

From here on the swell will ease slowly into the afternoon and further Sunday with only small levels of easterly swell at Aproador expected mid-next week.

With this in mind we'll probably see the competition run over the coming 4 days before going back into a holding pattern.

Long-range forecasts indicate the possibility of a larger southerly swell at the end of the waiting period, but we'll provide another update in the coming week. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

Read Julio Adler's Brazilian Prologue in today's Semi Pro Shakedown.