Jeffreys Bay 2016 Forecast Update
As expected, the CT guys got a great warm up swell over the weekend with clean pumping 4-5ft walls wrapping into Jeffreys Bay.
Our early forecast sighted a good SW groundswell for the opening day of the waiting period, that being tomorrow. This swell is still on track and there'll also be some short-range W/SW swell in the mix from a strong front clipping the south of the country through the morning.
Clean windy 3-4ft sets are expected all day with the mix of SW and W/SW energy, easing back through Thursday but with less favourable winds. An early north-westerly will swing more north through the day (devil wind) so it'll be touch and go regarding the conditions through the morning.
The weekend's swell has been upgraded, but the window of clean conditions has been shortened significantly to only Saturday.
A strong storm moving through the Southern Ocean over the coming days will strengthen further while passing under South Africa. A front will clip the Jeffreys Bay region Friday afternoon, bringing with it a late increase in short-range W/SW swell.
This probably wont be enough to get competition going, but into Saturday the groundswell proper from a better SW direction is due. This will be generated by a broad and vast fetch of gale to severe-gale south-west winds under the country.
The surf should build to the good consistent 6ft range on the sets under offshore west-southwest tending variable winds.
A secondary pulse of good S/SW groundswell for Sunday will unfortunately be spoiled by nor-east devil winds as a strong high pressure ridge quickly builds in from the west. Poor winds and easing surf will continue through Monday and Tuesday ahead a westerly change Wednesday. The region will fall between westerly swells though with only small surf expected.
From here through to the end of the waiting period (Sunday the 17th) we're only likely to see one more significant S/SW groundswell and this may be with northerly winds, but we'll continue to update the outlook in the comments and future articles.
Comments
seems like northerly devil winds really plague swells at JBay or is this related to some inter-seasonal factor?
any south effrican experts out there?
Hey Mate, I grew up surfing there and lived there for a while. The devil wind is in response to high pressure which tends to follow cold fronts. Low pressures move from cape town to Durban and as they pass Jbay the swell wraps in with west perfect offshore winds. This is the usual scenario but as the front diminishes that high pressures fill in and the wind turns northerly. This the devil win, usually only lasts for the morning though then is changes. There are places to surf in this wind if you know where to look ;)
Significant quandary for the WSL. No swell after this weekend and devil winds on Thurs/Sun so with 4 days of competition to run, good luck running the finals in anything surfable, unless they do something smart like overlapping Rd 2 heats on Wed arvo to try and wrap up Rd 1 and Rd 2 all in one day?
Hahaha "do something smart.."
Northerlies are more common in autumn than during mid winter. NW winds are pretty horrible, too; SWlies the go.
Matty Bemrose says it's cooking..
Mick's up first against Conner and Alejo.
Why do they always take so long to get things started?
Waves are firing get it started.
Anyone else think Alejo Muniz surfs like Sally Fitzgibbon? Arms held up high, slight disconnect between legs and upper body.
Definite similarities with the waving arms as they come off the top...
Funny Stu just watched him and thought that he does look a bit like Sally...think he might have changed his style a bit,so your on the money.
Henceforth known as Salejo Muniz.
ha has a certain ring to it....
So what are you really trying to say Stu.......na i like Sallys style more now that shes tweaked it ala JJF a bit.
Mick's being overscored IMO.
Don't know about that Stu but his stance looks very wide and awkward, not very pleasing to the eye.
Kelly really looks like he has some spark back that board looked really nice under foot.
Jordy with glass on fins
He's absolutely blowing up, that carve oh gawd!
JDub, on fire!
And Seabass too. I've never seen him surf that good! Some of the guys in the earlier heats looked way off the pace. There's nowhere to hide on a point break if your technique isn't quite right
Shit yeah! Seabass ripping.
Lots of chit-chat about the 'incident' last year but I'm getting the impression they're forbidden from saying the S***k word.
PS Go Wilko!
Ugly win for Wilko.
God yeah Flow, and some.
So will they run this morning (J Bay time)? They kinda have to looking at the swell forecast don't they? Unless they're hanging their hats on that little pulse of long range SW groundswell coming to fruition on Sat 16th? But that's a long way out to call at this stage.
I think they will, winds looking lighter this morning which is a big plus!
J-Bay called on.
That was the best I've ever seen Dusty Payne surf in a comp.
That 9.77 was ridiculous.
Yeh it was up there blow job...looks like the swell is diapering....
A diapering swell! Not sure whether that's crapping in your nappy
Totally agree! And Jordy too on fire. He'll be hard to beat. How rippable is J bay at this size? Did anyone see Connor Coffins judging whinge after getting beaten by Melling? Melling was on slightly smaller waves but ripped them apart and deserved the win I thought!
Jordy clinic in progress, look out for him to get only one wave in his heat in the next round probably in shit waves to blow it.
So nice to not have to listen to Pottz' drivel, leave Pete Mel and replace Turpel with Matt Hoy. Hehe it was really good listening to Slaters take on things yesterday he would be the best commentator but what a waste that would be.
I'd rather watch Dusty than JJF .
Dusty destroys waves.
Agreed. JJF looks like his feet have shifted closer together again. I prefer him with a wider stance but he can still pull all the technical air moves
Ace will be pushing it uphill to beat a natural footer in these conditions.
He'd be spewing , I reckon they'll call it off after this.
Maybe a hand out to Slater.
How fast did slaters board go especially compared to what he rode at snapper? Ace is the surfer rep so I'm sure he must have agreed to surf that heat. It deteriorated pretty quick
Rusty and Florence in the final...
So how many days left do they need to finish? Another 2 or because they called it off earlier yesterday is it more like 2.5 days left?
They're gonna struggle to find 2-2.5 days of good swell and winds left in the waiting period, although something small appears to now be popping up next Thursday as a possible finals day?
Overlapping heats should have been run earlier yesterday me thinks as it was certainly consistent enough before midday (J Bay time) yesterday.
They may go on hold today and try run from early-mid afternoon with a building swell but it doesn't look to get big enough for me.
Tomorrow is a runner with that good building SW groundswell.
Onshores look to spoil Sunday and Monday as the swell eases.
Tuesday's swell looks too west for me, but clean 2ft+ maybe?
Thursday's swell bigger, probably 3ft to maybe 4ft but those winds are a little dicey.
Still hope for swell next weekend with better winds.
"Still hope for swell next weekend with better winds."
Hope is the key word here!!! Although EC is looking better than GFS so fingers crossed this girl comes to fruition!!
Well it started pretty small last night but some good sets started coming through eventually. Most of the surfers seemed to be commenting that the waves were really fun. And the quarters are made up of all the big boys so the best have risen to the top anyway. Some ripping going down too. I think I read on here from last year that someone thought that Alejo Muniz surfs like an average boardriders club member in Oz and nothing I saw last night changed that. When the waves are good the best come through. Wilko is going to have trouble holding on to win the year if he can't come up with better performances when the pressure comes on.