New Zealand braces for week-long cyclone swell
New Zealand is bracing for a week-long cyclone swell, kicking off from tomorrow.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Victor, a Category 3 system currently south-east of Samoa has been aiming storm to hurricane-force 50-60kt+ winds towards New Zealand since late last week. The scope of Victor broadened over the weekend into early this week as it drifted slowly south, squeezing against a strong supporting high pressure ridge to the south. With this supporting ridge, a larger fetch of E/NE gales has been generated than otherwise would have developed.
Victor is set to slowly weaken while tracking very slowly south-west towards New Zealand through the rest of this week, continuing to pump out large, long-period NE groundswell energy towards the North Island and also the Australian East Coast.
STC Victor is expected to make an extratropical transition during the weekend (changing from a warm core tropical cyclone to cold core extratropical low) before weakening significantly Sunday evening east of East Cape.
Size wise, exposed north-east facing breaks across New Zealand's North Island should start to kick towards the 6ft range tomorrow, ebbing and pulsing from Thursday through Monday in the 8ft range as the direction slowly veers more E/NE and drops steadily from Tuesday. A peak in size is most likely later Thursday/Friday to 8-10ft across exposed north-east facing coasts.
Winds for the most part are looking great from Whakatane west with early morning offshores and afternoon sea breezes, with less favourable northerly breezes around East Cape.
Australia's East Coast will see the swell starting to fill in Thursday but initially with no major size and a very low consistency, building further Friday with a peak due over the weekend across the Gold Coast and North Coast. Sydney, south should see a peak more through Sunday/Monday.
Keep an eye on your local regions forecaster notes for the finer details regarding Australia's East Coast. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
One spot on Great Barrier will be pumping I reckon, among others....
A great looking system to chase swell from Nrth of Auckland down the East coast around the NE Cape and down further too many a spot where no-one would be. Pumping day after day:)
A bit underwhelming so far! Kicked a bit stronger today but the wind is a bit northerly and messing with it. I surfed the main at the Mount tonight because the coast was too big and occasional sets around 5 foot with up to 8 waves in each set. Pretty long period for east side NZ but funky wind
Had a good mate ring today and it's been pumping East-SE coast.....?
Reefs have been all time in years and it's not letting up;)
Will probably get better when Ex Victor moves around and down!