Drug Aware Pro Forecast
There's been a lot of speculation surrounding the large back-to-back swells due to impact Margaret River from the first day of the Drug Aware Pro waiting period. Everything from bay-wide closeouts to shifting the main event to North Point has been bandied about.
So, now that we're just two days out and the forecast has sharpened what size can the WSL expect and what are their options?
Western Australia's South-West region is expecting three large pulses of groundswell from Wednesday (first day of the waiting period) through to Saturday, all owing to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough moving in across the Southern Indian Ocean during the weekend and across the South West mid-week.
With this a series of vigorous polar lows are firing up towards Western Australia, generating three distinct pulses of groundswell.
The first is due to arrive Wednesday morning and build towards a peak through the afternoon to 8-10 foot across Main Break.
A slight drop back in size is due into Thursday morning to the 8 foot range ahead of a more consistent secondary pulse of SW groundswell through the day, offering bigger 10 foot sets.
The swell should then drop away through Friday from the 10 foot range ahead of the third and final increase in S/SW groundswell Saturday.
Late last week this final pulse of swell was forecast to be a monster, yet now the polar low generating it is expected to form a little too late in Western Australia's swell window and move quickly to the east under the country.
The open ocean swell size of this last pulse Saturday morning will be slightly bigger than those before it and the period a touch stronger, but the southerly direction will counter this so we can expect similar size 8 - 10 foot surf across Main Break, with the possibility of the odd bigger sneaker set. In straight size terms this is usually enough for North Point to break, however the swell direction isn't ideal so at this stage it's unikely the comp will move there (if that is even possible, something the WSL hasn't confirmed yet). It's all pointing towards a day at Surfers Point.
Looking at the expected conditions and every morning looks good with offshore E/SE breezes Wednesday morning, straight E'ly winds Thursday morning and a lighter more variable breeze Friday morning ahead of afternoon sea breezes.
Saturday then looks excellent with a fresh offshore E'ly breeze that is only expected to tend light and variable into the afternoon.
On the backside of the swell Sunday NE winds may open up The Box for business, and with nothing too significant for the rest of the forecast period, it would be wise to make the most of. //CRAIG BROKENSHA
Update: Saturday's large S/SW groundswell has been upgraded and now looks to peak at 10-12ft+ through the middle of the day at Main Break.
Comments
So you don't think that madagascar low remnants linking in with the 2 eyed polar system on the 18th/19th is worthy of any significant swell? 12z 18th - points of interest - 95e 38s.... And fetch behind there at 85e 48s "ish ? All dictated by double low near 95e 62s
At this stage no, none of the major models are picking up any significant developments once the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Joalane gets absorbed into the westerly storm track.
Hmm, worth watching though.....I see one possible model has 6 to 8 foot sw swell, at around 13 seconds.....created by the secondary front of that polar system - the fetch behind joeline... at 85/48s....
Joalane looses too much energy before being absorbed.
It's those ones that are still at strength and have all that pent up energy and then get absorbed that lead to an intensification of the polar frontal systems.
This just looks like the TC totally weakens and we get stock standard polar frontal activity behind it, totally unrelated.
Totally agree.... Certainly no Pam lol..... But that second fetch..... Still swell maybe?
Oh yeah, still moderate pulses more than likely, but not significant relative to what's coming over the coming days.
SMOKE METH, SHOOT HERION
Excellent break down of this forecast. Swellnet is professional
Big down grade from a few days ago when it looked 15ft . Much better now becos there wont be such big waves going unridden . Box might be rad as you say craig
Looks to me like a 10-12' peak. That's going off the current low of 967. Looks very similar to one I remember of 963 which brought a very nice swell of this size. Going back a bit now.
Bit of a downgrade but good to hear some sense being spoken.
thanks Craig.
I reckon The Box would have to be the judge's nightmare. Once most get it dialled in, it would seem to produce a series of identical rides.
Its heaps better to watch it at the box though. Lets see Gab and Toledo out there...
Agree it is way better when Margs is an onshore, lipless right hander. Margs at 8 - 10 foot plus will be a different story.
Box is so short and mechanical it gets pretty monotonous watching in a comp scenario.
Agree re Box, not even an end section after the barrel to do a turn.
I just wanna see the margs left at solid ten foot..... I wanna see some man turns.....
Nothing on the Margs cam now ...6inches...Trails on tmoro will anything be showing by then ?
Great to see a forecast with some solid potential for the initial contest period.
Interesting with the technology available these days in regards to forcasting swell for certain regions etc. Whilst I acknowledge the fact that some people love trying to forcast weeks in advance (it's some peoples job after all), seemingly the hype rarely lives up to the reality.
This is highlighted somewhat when the WSL contests are approaching. It's really only the last couple of days before an event or specific date that carry any realistic accuracy/weight from what I've observed. It's a facinsting pastime, forcasting weather, but making big claims weeks out seems only to feed the "hype" with let down fast approaching. Maybe it's just optimistic wishful thinking which is all good I suppose....
P.S. I'm not suggesting SN is associated with hype forcasting. Cheers.
Fair call, rabs.... But i suppose it's no different in a way to the hype last year about Hawthorn V Sydney..... Ended up a dud..... What will be will be..... And this swell banter keeps nutters like me off the street... So it's a win win for society ;P
Totally agree Sheepy. I do enjoy trying learn from you forecasters, it makes for interesting reading and observation. Cheers.
what HYpe= never any doubt- the Mighty Hawks were always going to win that one and have buddy lying down watching what got away.
Bombed this week and saints found their wings. Margs going to be way more entertaining than snapper and bells, lots to be excited about.
Yeah no hype here, Hawks solid all the way!!
Pretty stoked with my Crow boys.
Whilst where in the vien of no hype, the mighty Eagles will have put the competition on notice after demolishing a powerful Blues outfit at home, surely.....
yeah no hype on this season either with the Hawks and Swans members reserving seats for the big dance before a game is played .
nek minnit
2 weeks in they both get showed up by a side that 3/4 of their players didn't play a practice match .
Bombs away .
Speaking of bombs , hows all the hype and froth of what would have been 3 ft rights .
Even cronulla won in the league.... Better check how the Redcliffe dolphins are travelling lol.....
The reason i want it held at Margs main is that we have a feast of barrel riding throughout the year.... Chopes, fiji, pipe, even supertubes Jbay..... So, to get an all round world champ, we need an all round tour..... And with no other deepish water raw big wave reefs on tour (BRING BACK SUNSET!!!!!), I feel they have to hold it at mains....
does it mean now that Snapper and Bells have got the 2ft onshore dribble component locked away , we can just give the pros time off come Europe , Brazil and America ! ?
lol...... Well snapper was quite average.... Bells had a few good days, though.... Southey, I don't think the tour will ever have epic surf at every location... Be amazing if it did.... But you're a weatherman... What's the odds of that happening.....
I think Trestles is a unique wave... No problem there....
France/Portugal - yeah... Problem.... Just one beachbreak comp in Europe needed.... Surely there are some hot points or reefs in portugal.... So move portugal event to a reef or point, and that leaves just 2 beachbreak events on the whole tour - France and Brazil..... Perhaps make Brazil a bit more mobile
I don't know that was some good entertainment from Pupo
feck he bailed early, grab your rail and pull under son. easy to say sitting here in board short country surfing over sand bottom. still reckon he could have had more of a crack- still flogged, but just a hypothetical musing now.
I have only surfed Margs small many years ago however from what I have heard once it gets over 8 foot it gets serious. I agree with Sheepy I want to see massive man turns in big, clean Marg's. Box looks like a gnarly right hand version of Bigin - take off, barrel, pop out the end, more fun if you were out there but not the waterman challenge big Marg's would be.
Summed it up well Melma. Will be awesome to see the best in big clean Margs for sure....
The Froth over here has been crazy - Jake Patterson - from Dunsborough - Not from down here in MR, has been saying its going to be 20ft. Taj - from Yallingup, not here in MR reckoned it was the best forecast he's seen for North Point.... (these two spend most of their time overseas and pretty much get told where is going to be good by all of their local fawning mates) Who benefits from this?? WSL and all swell/surfing websites (This one included although I do believe this one is quite genuine) Everyone froths and gets on the net, checking all out swell reports, more traffic means more advertising etc. It benefits these websites heaps when massive swells are forecast.
Today the WSL have been barred from going to North Point by the local shire, due to environmental concerns even though they wheeled in Slater and co to try to razzle dazzle the local shire crew, lucky for all of us down here they didn't get star struck and remembered they work for the local community, not 36 greedy surfers. Apparently they are open to it next year which seems crazy since the shire and Govt spent 10 million the last couple of years on the local surfers point car park .....
Kieran Perrow and co should have asked some local people instead of 2 people that spend most of their time overseas, they wasted so much time frothing over NP when for the last few days it was plainly obvious that the place that was going to be on was the box - high tides light winds solid powerful swell, heck Margs right will be sick also.
Fkn Wsl surfers , greedy wankers.
That's great news, glad the shire used their brains.
All the hype alright.and what if they got a true np swell,it would be 1 day then back to margs.stop all the carry on and run it at inside grunters.
And huzzas as the back up venue
Box will be rude fauntleroy magillacutty . Those who ride the box know ! ( Check it sundy ) but you cant expect goofy footers to be on par with nat foots at box its a mad wave & goofys have always been a minority out there . Of course taj etc want it at np or supers or rabbits or yalls . Make em surf mainys . Some of us forecast for a living if u dont like it dont worry about it forecasting is in everything everywhere
Haha! "Those who ride the box know!" Wet dreams!
Yep the old slogan was a classic ad
Aargh bloody natural footers just looking for an out .....
You wanna go right boys , I'm sure there will be a day in the forecast for " the right " . Strangely I think maybe only Crossy will put his hand up for a wildcard ....... Looking at a lot of footage of there , I reckon the only way to ride it would be like box is ridden properly "via the backdoor " . Would be interesting trying to knife a 9ft plus board into it though !
Touché southey.
Crossy is stalling when everyone else is sitting in the mouth gunning for the channel.
As long as they don't go to North, I couldn't care less.
I'd like them to have it at Main break also.
Bit of west on Wed, so I guess we'll see with box. Sundy?? Sittle down.
Don't they hold a a comp at Chopes ? been a few natural footers win there. Whats different? Ones a heaving right, ones a heaving left.
I realize that some do it for a living but the hype surrounding this swell has been next level. Been making me Nauseous, Jake was in the Sunday paper saying it was gonna be 20ft....Surely he's not that stupid.
Wow, and that's after I was in there playing down the swell when it was looking best, saying 10-12ft..
From Friday, you can read the comments near the top..
Damn, all comments don't show, but here's a screeny..
Craig ,
Give us a round about summary of what came before Andrews comment . . .?
Ah, he was just saying it's a big call so far away from the event start (thinking it could totally change), but I stated that the first swell producing storm was firing up the next day, so pretty solid forecast that far out.
Classic. Come to Margies to the see the biggest waves ever in Aus.........via my shop....
No he's not stupid . Look at the traffic its creating . Sounds like he's still feeding from the pro surfing teet . Or perhaps he's just looking after the same place he sends his rates , land taxes .
The state government -WA tourism , something's gotta fill the hole they've dug over there !!!!!!!
It will all be forgotten about after next week - hope it goes back to normal.
BTW I wasn't having a go at the swell scientists on this site, just all the hype - the in depth outlooks are very much appreciated from my end. Cheers fellas!
fooled by windguru margs , you get that ! try seabreeze to bring you back to reality . This swell hyped ? No actually lots of big wave surfers live for that stuff and froth everytime a big swell appears on the radar . Its normal . The hype maybe unusual to some newcomers to the scene . By the way craig undercalls the margs area becos he doesnt focus his sizes on the big wave reefs . Hava look at magic seaweed for a joke they must be calling size of the beachbreaks .
Newcomers to the swellnet forum?
Some people get excited when there's bad forecasts for WSL events! Strange but true, wonder who???
Where's the bad forecast Bob?
bede durbridge on Instagram proudly displaying his MR Pro quiver. A 6'8 his biggest. Just one. Ummmmmmmm.......
Please don't tell me these pros are gonna use the "didn't bring big enough boards" excuse again!!!
This forecast swell has been known to be coming for quite a while!!! So as far im concerned the pros have no excuses as to why they can't surf it.
Hype. To promote or publicize (a product or idea) intensively, often exaggerating its benefits. I would of thought big wave surfers would be more interested in reality. Not being a big wave surfer I will take your word for it....
Obviously some arent aware of the size of saturdays swell . If you think its hype .wrong its actually one of the biggest forecasts in years for the big wave bommies of the south west coast. South in particular . My local is calling 7m @18 sat night in the bight. As per normal have been talking to fellow big wave nutters planning to surf sumthing huge
20ft at Margs??
If you arent aware re newcomers of MR wguru . With years of experience using guru u will know that it overcalls Every day always . Also theres no prob with the ssw angle for sat . Main left works well becos of the bathymetry . The 500 m ramp of reef outside the break will focus that swell good and big
Wind guru is fucked for everywhere
I disagree mibs its good . Another location i use it for its 50% size & another its 33% so it fools many & thats good too
And yeah, with Camel on the massive swell for Southern Australia over the weekend, no hype there, a true large, long-period and very powerful groundswell event.
I thought this thread was about potential swell for Mainbreak Margies/Box re the WSL comp approaching., not bombies off the southern Aus coast. Apologies, my confusion. No hype there, that's for sure.
No, it is, but it's just that Camel mentioned the swell for Southern Australia so I answered that :)
Cheers, thought so. Just wondered you referenced hype :-)
Hi Craig, what's your thoughts on the winds for Saturday - looks like its warming up and may get a bit funky?
Still looking moderate to fresh E/NE, tending less favourable NE late morning but then becoming variable into the afternoon. So not perfect but pretty nice still.
Hey craig thanks for the heads up on xxl swell . Your forecasts say 6.5 - 7.5 metres @ 17 for many location on the south shores of the whole australia . My forecast for the box on weds thurs fri sat .not good , tides are barely high enough weds-fri , wind is soueast so its ruffled , periods a little bit long. Sat ; period way too big . Otherwise good wind & tide . Fauntleroy show us how its done at da box please. Spectators will be impressed . Also watch out for the arsehole rangers that fine hundreds of ppl for parking in places that are normal . They got hundreds from me for parking in normal park spots . Yeah really love the comp at ya local break & you get barred from going there too. Hava great time surf fans
Rabbit i think all these things are related . Maybe not in your world but they are . Even if someone rides a wave miles from mainbreak but during the event it will all be related . Even more so if its a famous pro . WOW ! as thermalben would say.
Chaos Theory 101
Caml I agree the swell is related, even in my world. Just your reference to hype being wrong was mis directed. I've been referring to Mainbreak & initial calls, not elsewhere.
So Caml are you against the WSL & BWWT events or not. You seem to be sitting on the fence. In this instance happy to offer various insights to Mainbreak/Box in a WSL thread, then on the eve of the comp come out with bagging surf fans & the fact certain breaks will be off limits to locals/everyone during the comp. I'm not having a crack. Just curious. I know Mikehunt has made his views clear.
Hope you score some epic big clean waves over the coming days.
Caml, are you against the comp being held at Mainbreak every year?
Would you be happier if it wasn't there?
Bit late for that fr76 . mean it started when i was 13 , thats 30 yrs ago . Part of the whole now . No probs im busy elsewhere now avoiding parking tickets, hijacked surfbreaks(hopefully) & security . Becos autumn is time to surf , not watch others surfing
Amen to that.
Good ol two humps eh.
I don't surf the Box caml, I will be watching like most other mere mortals...
Thursday looks like the day for the box, pretty sure the pro's wont mind the 1.12 high tide around early/mid morning. Could be very exciting watching the goofies getting pounded!
With millions of taxpayers money pumped into recreating the Margs car park it's hard to see the sponsors being real happy about the event being moved anywhere , not to mention the logistical nightmare north point would be , unless the wsl banned the public from attending ... Not impossible but highly unlikely to ever be a contest wave & why would you when main break will possibly be close to the best it's ever been in recent years - every time bells is 6ft and offshore winki would be firing - but they don't move ?
Thurs - box good ! Excellent spectators sport . Tide too low / period too big / devil wind . Box bad for local ambulance & medics . Great for photographers too & who ever gets good pics / sponsors happy . Go hard heres your chance at the title of lunchbox legend .
Just an update regarding Saturday's swell.
We're now looking at a large S/SW groundswell peaking through the middle of the day to 10-12ft at Main Break, with the possibility for the odd bigger cleanup set. Much bigger at deep water reefs and offshore bommies as well.
And tmoros....still on track ?
Yep, peaking through the afternoon but with sea breezes. 4.5 days of large groundswell, clean each morning and some afternoons. Can't wait to watch!
doesn't look to be too big at the moment... must be going to heave overnight...
Nothing expected today at all besides a long-range and small to moderate increase in swell.
The large groundswell expected tomorrow will arrive through the morning and be biggest into the mid-late afternoon. Probably 6-8ft through the morning, 8-10ft easy into the afternoon.
Onya Craig.
I'm beyond excited for this...
$$ on Dusty to make final 4.
Craig, re' our discussion yesterday.... I'm a bit more confident of another decent swell around the 21st/22nd now.... I'd consider that "significant"..... Around 8 foot..... But not out of the wsw.... Definite sw.....The remnants of Joelene actually draw that polar front further north.... As it amalgamates with the front, it gives it a little extra "oomph"..... Winds also look good for the 22nd.....
This might be a dumb question but...
Out of interest if you want to have a squiz at the Margaret River contest (in real life not on the internet) do you have to pay? And do locals, with the right postcode on their drivers licence, like 3228 (3230 don't cut it) if you want to go & see Bells, get in for free?
cheers, FN
Nope, you've gotta let this one go SD, give it a kiss and throw her over the side.
No note-worthy interaction still forecast between the remnants of Joalane and the westerly storm track.
Just a strengthening polar frontal system some 1,500-2000km behind it to the south-west that may generate a 4-6ft pulse of groundswell for later Tuesday arvo.
Stronger system piggy-backing on the back of the first weak front generating a better pulse for Wednesday but not linked at all and some 3,000km behind any living remnants of Joalane.
Maaaate.... Once you've been with Joalane, you'll never want another woman.... :p
Jokes aside, yeah I'm not saying Joalane is a swell producer.... At all.... Whatsoever..... What I am saying is it's interaction, even on your wams, certainly helps that secondary front, the " polar frontal system some 1,500-2000km behind it to the south-west "..... As I said yesterday, they are all linked, and the front that joalane tempts further north aims the whole thing perfectly.... Check your wams at +72 then +96, then +120.... You'll see what I mean.. But yeah, joalane wont produce swell.....
Hows Kelly's form warming up today in Lennox and then flying in for kick-off. Next level FIFO
Not a bad lifestyle eh Mick!
Yeah caml those rangers are ruthless...ur talking bout the van u had right ?I remember t the swim run back from river mouth!camls bootcamp
Ok lets say fauntleroy u are a tool.big call on jake patto?the bloke is one of the best round those parts.
So finally looks like the surf weve all been waiting to watch at margies,just hope it stays clean and maybe they can finish it all by the weekend,so much potential....at last.
All the hype.not the swell but all the fuckwit questions...do you think the pros have the equipment?who do you think will dominate the conditions?you wont be out there,probably at work like me so u got nothing .
Really . 20ft this 15ft that 10ft then, probably 8-10ft when it happens............
WSL this, WSL that, then and when WSL nothing but gone eh...!
Really, whoopie doooo doo
Caml this, that ,then and when, just go and surf and don't tell these people what you do, or what you know and do.
I could've been there, was there but wasn't, but was big, huge time massive, absolutely massive out of this world.
Carry on it's a great read;)
Would you prefer it dull & boring Welly? :-()
Norcho not that van although that rental in carpark did cost 600 in fines for 3 months but it was parking along the rivermouth rd watching the comp even tho i had all the passes . The ranger was a fuckwit 300 on spot for arguing that im authorised to park there every day . It was about 4th day . Bossy boots called cops and i was given a move on notice & banned from prevelly for 24 hrs it was so wrong that it was last time comp about 4 yr ago
I wasnt the only one tho about 100 other locals got em too maybe without the lot
Banned from prevelly !old bossy boots the cunt.the rangers are worse than the cops
yeah norcock and all the fuckwit answers like yours .
X2 Simba
Well said;)
Have you got it yet nocock.....?
Nat Young.
Ha
Yes welly another kiwi that knows it all.fuck off back there dont u cunts have ya own site?na just a shit country ya fuckwit!!
Hey there NoCock.
Thats pretty funny as I do not know everything at all there mate!
No one does....!
Except you my friend;)
Settle down have another drink and think about what you are putting forth here, within your emotions....
of lots.
OOOhhh thats right mate..........!
Swellnet is is in New Zealand....??????????
.
?
Low blow bro , low blow .
Who Southey.?
Could you alliterate on that comment please!
Thanx :)
Anyways pretty fucked off personally with Norchocks comments towards myself and my fellow kiwis on this site....?
ANZACS is next week and this does not justify immature comments from people............
Is there a moderator here or do you guys SN think this is funny.....?
If so see you later.
Not u Welly , wee r sweet as .
Was just getting my cuz on in a little suttle defence .
PS . Check the times of posts .
Cheers;)
I tell you what sports fans, froth levels for this comp are at an all-time high. If things come together as the mad Ian Hewitson's have planned, the next few days could be as momentous as Hampton Carroll's foray into copper way back when. There has been some to-ing and fro-ing on size and location but the one certainty is this - if Craigo and Co's forecast is spot on, a few Brazo hot shots will be packing their dacks with more topping than a z-filled roll from Margs IGA. Can I get a "yew"?
Fuck yeah bro yew
CM . I think everyone's over frothed in a premature way .
And it's not just this site . Although it's common knowledge in these walls that NP would be an anticlimax even on Saturday , funnily enough MANY idiots at these other sites are still maintaining the rage over the councils decision . Classic
.
I'm hearing you, Southey. Premature over froths.
Spot on Southey, and Clivus for surreptitiously pointing out the hype.
I used to suffer from premature froths way back in my formative years.
I'd be up behind the boatshed eyes alight, the tense suffocating air of romantic anticipation and I'd look out over the harbour to see the spray smashing off the ocean side of the sea wall. I'd pull up the strides and jump into the MickyFanny mobile (Nissan Cedric) and fang over the hill to the local, only to be disappointed, yet still strangely aroused.
Whatever the outcome on the weekend, there will be waves. Maybe it will be different conditions on different days. We just don't know, although thanks to the cut and thrust of modern swell reporters and reporting models, we have a fairly well informed idea.
The point of my story is to just ignore the hype, jump in the Cedric and pull up at the car park on Saturday. What you see will be what you get. Brazzos crapping themselves, IGA rolls - that will be an added bonus.
Until then, all we can do is enjoy each day as it comes and marvel at the creation of the almighty father.
"yew".
MF
"The voice of reason" - by MickFanny. You've touched on the intangible lifeblood in us all. That enigmatic drive that prompts fathers to load up the Nissan Cedric and b-line it to Gleeson's. Maybe wet a line and catch a gummy with their sons. Maybe not.
Parp
.
I hope its like the 1990 comp I remember watching pauline menzer getting completely crucified it was very fucking entertaining even as a 10 year old. Respect pauline that was an epic flogging. I would love to see footge of that comp. Oh please I hope they get a few nasty cleanups.
Sickaz, there you go, for your delight, at around 52:00
cant see any 20ft waves on this video , some peoples memories have sorta blurred and now say that year was 20ft . the good old days haha !
Awesome cheers
Few solid sets starting to break at Margs couple hours off high tide .......low water this arvo will be thumping in.
Is there udo ? On camera ? Looking at bouy its showing 1.26 @ 12 .rotto buoy is sole bouy online . Gotta bit to go yet there . Also chances for box sun not too good with a 20 knot noreaster going nth .
Box being free surfed now.
Caml, just about to start comp at the Box........its pumpn.
Ok i dont get to use surfcams . How bigs da box & mainby?
this calls for a trip to a computer at the nearest town café !.so the margs cam shows some underwhelming swell size with a soueast wind . looks barely overhead high at this stage , so the box it is ,goodluck there with the soueaster. hope the swell picks up a bit !
Camel, here's a monster, 3x+ overhead?
aha shit sorry , must have been a lull when I looked ! that's boatramps isn't it ?
Yeah.
Was Kelly' 2.67 the worst piece of judging in surfing history? You have to make the wave? Well he made the friiggin' barrel. That was outstanding surfing and if the system doesn't reward it then the system is clearly wrong.
Hail Mary, says Potts, get to your feet and hope you make it. Just about sums up the comp at the moment: surfing polished, offshore turds is still surfing turds. Commentator: Jordy scores a BIG win ... with 7.73 total: sounds like compelling viewing! Oh and have to catch waves in between sets to find a score. Sure there might be some good barrels ridden, but not yet after two and a half sets. Could be the most sub 1 scores ever lodged in a day of competition if it continues as it is. Kelly leads on 5.8 half way through heat. commentator: Kelly is excited to perform ... has a lot more in the tank ... if he makes one of these waves, he'll be getting score easily in the excellent range! WTF
Yep terrible competition wave!
Mad viewing!! Great watching these guys in challenging heavy waves that aren't perfect....
Oops Kelly just made one, scores a massive 4.5, who's next? viewing heaven, unbridled excitement. Hey, here's an idea, lets hold WSL comps in closeouts. Maybe give scores for best wipe outs!
Be interesting to see how many people are watching this compared to head high onshore Bells.
We all know these guys rip perfect waves, at least this is a challenge. So what if its one event a year....
Geez its tough for goofy footers when its moving around so much on the reef!!
Wow, now Kelly's putting a highlight reel performance together, says commentator. Kudos to Kelly for putting it on the line, but the rhetoric is sucking the air out of my lungs, much like the wipe outs and "serious beatings" - whose afraid of the big green wolf?
Gotta pay some of those drops and barrels that Kelly was taking. No one else in his heat had the stones to take off on the waves Kelly was. Give him a 5 for the size of his ball bag and .5 for the ride. 5.5 is the score. Easy...
Total heat scores of 4-6 is because the Judging is crap.
boys, cause i have run out of usage, havent checked much, but just saw footage of The Box and it looked shithouse, all over the place and commentators saying how good it is, Have I missed something? Whats the call on the swell for the rest of the waiting period cause i just saw closeout city in my quick look at webcast?
Mel says not one quality wave in heat 5 - so let's persevere anyway - 24 of 53 waves ridden score 1 or less ... yeah!
Is this the most embarrassing comp day in history? Freddy P wins with 4.3 with TURNS cause there was no barrel. Median does a floater, WTF, kind of.
How's mainbreak looking?
Guess they'll try and stay at the box for rd1 though to be fair to the early heat competitors.
Ok, had a look at the cam. Mainbreak would be much better in my opinion. Then they could cross for highlights of the freesurfing at the box.
Dear WSL,
Give Jake Patterson the mike, and put him in the commentary box.
Signed,
Everyone who actually surfs.
His response to Rosie's question was classic.
One of my mates is watching and says the box is mutating & sloppy with rip everywhere and the surfers out there are surfing more dangerous conditions than the cloudbreak pullback day .
Yeah there are some nasty beatings. Looks hairy to me all over the shop the swell looks really raw and messy.
Don't think it's the swell that's messy just that Box isn't handling it well.
Nice and lined up out the back.
OK from the cam it looks like there are heaps of peaks out the back and it isn't straight. Must be the angle I wonder how the main break is coping.
Main break was a bit inco but there were some good 10 footers. Big and washy I did see a free surfer get a pretty sick barrel on margies right. It wasnt perfect like the box every so often mental ones would go through.
Can someone ask Gabs what he thinks of the call to surf the box?
Lol Toledo must be happy must of been in perrows ear
Seems that the first choice wave actually is the box and mainbreak is the backup option.
never mind where the best and fairest comp waves might be. Barrels like Seabass's and Fanning's are gong to look great on the int/national TV grabs today - it's all about marketing kids. If they get 30 seconds of 'exciting' footage, the job is done.
Great commitment from Ace, but is it great surfing to have to hold on to your rail and ride like a tripod from start to finish? Apparently it is, highest score of the day! That's what I want to see 3 seconds of hold on for dear life and hope for the best, that's what I call real surfing. Kerrsy should of got a 10 for his commitment to doing a backwards swan dive into three feet of water!!
Are you kidding me? There are people actually whinging over anything about this event?...
This is sic as it gets!!!!
YEW!
Thoroughly enjoyed watching the carnage.. The surfers expected to charge did just that too... fun fun!
Slater definately under scored seems that they are trying to get rid of him imo,gutsy stuff.
I enjoyed the box but I'm excited to see big Margs. Can't believe the size of the boards they are taking out. I'd go with a bigger board. Plenty of power at Margs for you to be able to turn a big board.
Pupo and Toledos boards whats with the drawn on {texta ?] logos
Didn't notice. Possibly new or borrowed boards?
Thoroughly enjoyed the Box heats. Sure it was sketchy & scary but there were some incredible pits charged, heart in the mouth stuff, a refreshing change from Snapper n Bells.
Clearly Margs wasn't quite right early otherwise they would of been all over it. If they had of put it on hold for this day, we would of witnessed some epic free surfing at the Box no doubt, and all those above who complained about the comp starting at the Box would be the first to howl "why didn't KP run it at the Box!!". Can't please everyone as the the above posts suggest, some loved it some hated, who's right, who's wrong.....
Great call running it at the Box. No other wave like it on tour and great to see the pro's getting flogged for a change. Looks tough on ya back hand that's for sure. Ace got a cracker tho. Hopefully they run heats there every morning.
Parkos having fun,ripping.
Agree Simba he was real sharp. Wonder if Bede would have taken out a bigger board in retrospect. He charged that nugget. Would have been a different story on an 8'0
Dunno bout all this talk of goofyfooters disadvantage. Not at this level. It shouldn't be an issue. If Box was the same wave but a left, who do ya reckon would be dominating? The same blokes: Kelly and John.
Are you kidding me? Did you see that pinhead drop by Kerr? That was as sic as it gets!
Looking pretty tasty this morning on our surfcam.
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/margaret-river
Freddy P is impressed too! Looks SOLID.
Jay Davies in the first heat!
Running at the box. Don't expect many goofys to get through this round
fuckkkkk.... go main break!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will we get a Medina rant in his post heat interview?
Why keep pushing The Box, when Main Break is clean and on.
Why not? It's exciting viewing.
No doubt they will end up back at main break sometime during the day anyway when the tide and/or wind becomes no good for the Box.
Win/Win I reckon....
Because most punters (myself included) want to see big barrels and carnage, not turn after turn.
They surf heavy Chopes so its good for the Naturals to get a big slabby barrel on tour also.
Big margs is boring viewing.
You do know chopes is a left? Did you mean the box? Agree on Margs being boring to watch
As in I meant, the Goofy's get Chopes, so its good for the Naturals to get The Box.
Even it up a bit.
Much better viewing this morning with the swell hitting The Box a lot more uniformly, some great barrels!
Following on in the interests of goldy and lost doggy was there a Medina interview??
Two great upsets;)
At least Toledo shakes Richo's hand which saying not much for the other Brazilian....!
I haven't caught the heats today, but man there is a lot of crying going on from Brazillians on the WSL facebook page.
They're a funny bunch.
Wow, Owen just slayed a monster!!
Owen Wright!! All Time!!!
Seriously. That 10 was insane.
had a look at Sea Breeze (as is my wont)...Jeez, what's the go with Wednesday? Big clean Wednesday??
Yeah probably looking at an inconsistent 8ft+ groundswell at this early stage.
And Nth Pt was shit as well.
http://mysurftv.cmail2.com/t/j-l-dhxhuk-xlivkhid-j/
Cheers for that link Quokka. Epic!!
If that was the wrong direction for NP, so said some, can only imagine what the right direction would offer!!
No worries Rabs, always happy to help out a fellow furball with stoke. Yeah and the box has been crap as well...that wave of Owen's was off the chart. All you bashers keep bashing, we know how crap the SW is, you really should all stay at home it's not worth it.
Any change/update to the forecast for the next couple of days? Reckon they will wrap the comp up by weekends end?
Not really, tracking along nicely.
Friday: Easing SW groundswell from the 10ft range (possibly too big for The Box in the morning). Light E'ly offshore winds ahead of a shallow W/SW change through the middle of the day.
Saturday: Large and powerful S/SW groundswell reaching 10-12ft+ through the middle of the day. Moderate to fresh E/NE tending variable winds.
Sunday: Easing S/SW groundswell from 6-8ft with fresh and gusty E/NE tending NE winds before becoming lighter and more variable from the N'th into the afternoon. Good day for The Box.
Monday/Tuesday: Probably lay days with smaller swell and NE-N/NE winds.
Wednesday: Large inconsistent SW groundswell building to 8ft+ through the afternoon with light E/NE tending S/SW winds.
yeah they took margs apart.
Craig, southey did not say the lwt would produce swell on the 21st/22nd/23rd.... He said maybe at the end of the waiting period, and wrote off anything decent from the lwt during the days I said there would be swell.. ...In fact, he agreed with you, saying "nothing substantial"....... 8ft foot plus is substantial....Here are his exact words;
"as i wrote in the initial bells thread .
Back to back swells early ( days 1-3,4 ), then a chance of a westerly ( WNW ) component swell ( ie that Madagascar origin TD swell will intermix with ambient WSW sea state , the problem is the timing of that combined swell will probably hit first under NW wind regime as the sub tropical cutoff that it turns into will travel for 1000-2000 kms ontop of the initial STC produced swell .
So i held out on saying that the TD would combine with the Southern storm track or even enhance it as it as drifted down south into higher lattitudes . Reality is it'll be ridge supported all the way to alongside the WA coast , but long before that time be washed out of any real strength .
If anything the next LWT node advancing/amplifying may be the draw down for this system to join the southern storm track . But generally speaking the wavelength / period of the LWT torugh amplifications tend to be around 10-14 days and rare minimum of 7-8 .
So maybe too late and most likely too east .
No doubt by the end of the contest waiting period more offshores will be had with alot ( long period ) of residual WSW swell . The charts aren't really showing anything substantial I'm speculating purely on the rhythym of the LWT and SST's of the region ."
As I have said, Craig, I TOTALLY agree that joalane will not produce swell... TOTALLY.... But Southey and yourself could not and still do not see what crucial factor this remnant of a system has done.....
The lwt node has sped up... For a reason... Sometimes they retrograde.... Sometimes they stall..... They generally move east at about 15ks......... thereabouts.....
Sometimes highs retrograde..... Sometimes the high pressure belt is an influence.......Now there's a clue...... I'm looking at this from a fishermans eye...
So why did the node speed up?.... I'll tell you why...... Nah.... You're over it...
Cheers, man......
Yeah , Sheepy I'm often wrong .... but you have to expect that when you go out on limb . I'm reasonably certain that we got that TD's influence right . As for the LWT your misunderstanding what I wrote .
This was my original post ,
" southey commented Sunday, 5 Apr 2015 at 8:00pm
Off topic , but who wants to talk about shit bells .
The LWT is looking favourable for the MR pro . Early days but decent 4-6 ft swell second day of waiting period . And then perhaps a serious swell 5-6 days later . But most importantly a fair chance of a light wind regime to accompany any decent swell that comes through . The later date this year should almost guarantee land breezes and longer through the day in said above light wind period . The only thing is that potential bigger swell looks fairly SSW in direction and mid range periods , but a secondary swell back to back off the first may come through in time late in the waiting period with more west to it , and longer period . "
Note that I was either clearly drunk or infact just referencing what Northies would be doing on the first swell . ;-)
Secondly the first swell was produced on a Sunday - Monday way out closer to Africa than Aust . the second pulse is the continuation of that Node amplifying below WA . In a four node LWT setup generally speaking every second will be weaker and usually one stronger node than all others .
Next weeks ( its still in model land ) will be produced below WA on Monday - Tuesday at a similar spot to Saturdays swell . That fits the 7-8 rare short period amplification . I wasn't refering to the Nodes travel as generally speaking they don't strictly travel like waves . They migrate , sometimes "vanishing" or flattening . They aren't even as they are only a cross section of the vertical layer . My main point was that the rhythmic amplifaction followed a rough pattern in itself . I sometimes get it really right when a SST will induce the Uppers to amplify as they rotate around the pole . So like your hinting at the Surface sometimes drives the uppers .
The fact I was very early picking up on the first amplification , and then loosely right about a follow up will make me happy . But since your watching I might just go with a analysis that entails
GOOD or BAD .... ..
Oh and to everyone still jumping up and down about myself and camels convo in regards to Northies .
Clearly we don't won't the spotlight solely on there, and as such took every opportunity to talk it down . Its bad enough that people are videoing it and releasing it virtually straight away . And mostly the talk was of what Saturday would be like there , especially when they were originally forecasting that the SSW swell would be a lot larger than this first West of SW swell .
..
That makes sense re disrupting the high pressure belt but this is also due to the lack of a strong upper ridge as well.
In any case you were only talking about the TD linking with Southern Ocean storms and feeding them, which I have continued to discount, and has come to fruition..
I'm happy with all my callls from over a week out from this event and continue to sit by them. I'm not all science, it's also an art and takes a lot of years and experience watching the weather daily, much like you do, to get a good understanding.
Only difference is that I'm totally accountable.
Here's my long-range forecast 12 days before the event in the WA notes, on the Easter Friday the 3rd of April, pretty happy with it..
"Longer term we should finally see some better swell activity into the middle of the month as a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough is forecast to move in from the west next weekend (right) and into early the following week. More on this Monday though. Have a happy and safe Easter!"
And then more certain on the 6th.
"Longer term, as touched on last update, we've got a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough pushing across the Southern Indian Ocean over the weekend and this should bring with it a flurry of strong frontal activity through the Southern Ocean.
The models are still divergent on the structure of this activity but we're looking at some larger swell into the middle of next week. More on this Wednesday though."
But enough is enough, just good to see them scoring!
"Only difference is that I'm totally accountable."..................... Jeez... That's a bit rough....
quokka that Nth Point footage was unreal
ol Baldy on a tiny board.
Absolutely Udo some seriously long and deep holes. How about those saying it wouldn't be real Nth Pt... hard to please some, the SW is in pump mode but still they whinge and question.
Looked like proper N Point from this angle.
How about that eraser first pencil drop by Josh Kerr?
Sic as it gets!
http://gfycat.com/QualifiedSilkyCrocodileskink
Haha that's karma for those dozen or so drop ins during the Kirra swell Jordy haha
Wow..... Just pumping!!!!!!!
9.57????? Seriously?????
just found quokka's post about np
dont think it was contestable mate
too many clean barrels and not up to wsl level, only suitable for locals i reckon.
how good is that place, was tempted to ask for primo swell and wind direction but not wise questions to ask here me thinks.
Dave, just read back through this post. It's all been spelled out, apparently in an attempt not to spell it out..........
thanks mate- happy days and surfing to u
Nah not enough tunnel time and no wall to smash or do an air on so I agree that Nth Pt isn't the right location for a comp, free surfs only. Seriously it's not, logistics would be a farkin nightmare in there and the environment would get trashed. As for the other comments about how people shouldn't be posting videos of it...c'mon it's definitely no secret so what's the issue.
Agreed Quokka. Re conditions/vids etc of NP, that horse bolted years ago unfortunately. When a location/region has high profile CT surfers living there then on top of that an annual CT event, the exposure not only to the comp waves but the surrounding gems is simply a natural spin off, a fact of life, try stopping it, right or wrong......talking it down is talking about it. Maybe people need to just go surfing & talk less.....
That is bang on mate, couldn't agree more.
I take it all back about holding it at the box........ Bloodsport lol
Satellite passes over the low generating tomorrow's large S/SW groundswell are looking good.
50-55kt winds at the lows core.
Im not a religious man ......but fuck Adam Melling I prayed you would surface o.k.
what a flogging.
Heaviest wipe-out I've seen in a long time!
Landing flat on his back on the flat water above the reef and then guillotined and compressed in the head by that lip, intense.
You can really see the "chip in" spot on the reef..... Sometimes, a left spits for a second.... Behind where the left shoulder is - thats the deeper spot on the takeoff
Jay!!!
Fuck yeah, took down the big dog. Go the local lad.
If you watch Heat Analyser of Jay's 9.5. The following Clean up set that clips Pete Mels boat; Mel gives a nice "ah fuck". It's pretty funny.
Wonder if WSL are going to go the censorship route again.
Kelly Slater is a FREAK
Slater killing at Margaret River rights....someone tell me again how this isn't a good comp wave. Big tubes and carving walls!
My gosh. How was that carve?
Well done girls. That was a scary caught inside moment!! Respect!!!!
that fkn carve was off tits
Slater killing at Margaret River rights....someone tell me again how this isn't a good comp wave. Big tubes and carving walls!
Channel Bottoms --- You're on the right site to get someone to tell you WA isn't good enough - where's Big Island Tony, Free, Rotty and Stu kicking the WLT again that no ones watching.. We saw Christie live all over TV in NZ last night and he looked awesome and the wipeouts were amazing - but NZ, don't count....nor does Brasil...have we researched if anyones watching over there?
Great comp! But that doesn't translate to huge numbers watching Bob. We will have to wait and see how it goes but the mass media coverage is a bonus for the event.
On another issue, the judges have been having a bit of a hard time I think. They gave Slater a 9.5 for his first wave, then his second was hugely better, probablya clear 2 points, when all they could do was give him a 10. There were a few other issues as well, fortunately nothing that really influenced the results, but it seemed as if they were have having difficulty balancing size, depth of barrel and degree of difficulty at The Box.
It didn't matter too much bb . From local mates " it was possibly one of the rarest best tubes they've seen out there in a long time " , although guys don't usually have the luxury of a ski pickup drive around afterwards so perhaps the right isn't targeted that often .
Anyone know why the judges can't watch alternative views on the replay?
Coupla sets showing on our surfcam. Looks about 4-5ft right now, winds seem pretty good too. Should build throughout the morning.
http://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/margaret-river
No Mens on today?
Umm, tomorrow will be smaller easing swell with stronger SE winds.
What's going on. Blew 10/10 Main Break Saturday and now not running today?
Maybe they will wait for Fri/Sat when wind goes more easterly so they can run it at the Box?
I hope not, The Box will be small by then..
Yeah WTF is with the decision not to finish it in epic condition in Saturday, then claim they were 'waiting for the swell on Wed' and now make an early call not to run the Men's finals anyway??
All the goodwill that has built up due to the venue / swell selection so far will be unceremoniously wiped out if they run the final in poor conditions...
Pretty nice conditions for the womens final. Wind looks to have dropped. Wonder if they are now kicking themselves for calling the men off for the day?
With the forecast ahead looking iffy, why not just put it on hold earlier today, then if the winds become favorable, jump into action. It seems weird to make a blanket call when at this time of the year conditions can be flukey & the forecast isn't great....
Still not running? Because the wind might change direction?
You don't slow down at an intersection when the light is green because it might go red...
Oh well. In KP we trust.
So.. as expected today the wind is too strong.
Yesterday afternoon was a clean and glassy 8-10ft before a weak sea breeze kicked in.
Another missed opportunity.
This is risking turning into a farce...
What's on offer for the rest of the period Craig? Stealing defeat from the jaws of victory??
Well tomorrow should still be in the 6ft range and with a strong offshore E/SE wind, that will ease a touch through the afternoon along with the swell and likely tend more SE.
So basically similar to what the girls ran in yesterday, but smaller.
If these decisions are headed by KP and he's not just a spokesman; he has to go. But methinks viewers and timezones were apart of not finishing on Saturday.
This is ridiculous.
The mens should've been completed Saturday in what would have been the best day of comp at Margarets ever (IMO). All day, big perfection, and not the boring margarets that so many complain about.
Time will tell I suppose.
If it is run in poo, then it will have been a mistake.
You are allowed to make mistakes. Just not many...
I reckon a possible solution to successfully completing these contests in the best waves possible could be as follows:
1. Given these surfers are considered professional athletes & these WCT EVENTS are "work" for these surfers, they should be on standby for the whole waiting period, every minute, everyday. If this means they can't go off surfing other nearby locations, so be it. The waiting periods are approx 14days.
2. If the conditions during the event change either adversely or positively the comp is either called on or off accordingly, any time of the day & the forecast itself is considered with more realistic expectations rather than hope.
3. If a surfer does choose to go off surfing other nearby locations during the event, they risk being eliminated if they fail to show up to a heat (if they were to miss the updated call etc), similar to what happens already I think.
This would maximize the waiting period potential IMO & avoid missing opportunities when the surf is more than contestable. I completely understand & respect that making the "right" call is difficult when your trying to hold the contests in the best possible waves whilst dealing with Mother Nature. It seems the method of these waiting periods has to be tweaked or we just accept that finals may possibly be held in very average conditions......
......which would be an absolute disgrace if it were "held in very average conditions" given what's been passed up.
Rabbit you are spot on!
As is "Stealing defeat from the jaws of victory" should said situation arise.
Surely they can't stuff it up?
They already have haven't they? Missed Saturday afternoon and then missed yesterday afternoon after the womens final. Only going to get smaller by the looks.
Very true. Perhaps I should've said "surely they can't get the hat trick". They must reckon something good is coming else they would've run it yesterday arvo.
And maybe this would allow the general public, the surf fans, groms etc, access to these Pros whilst their milling around these luxury Marques. The willing punters could then get autographs, photos, have a chat etc with these Pros. Sure it would take some organizing but isn't the WSL desperate to spread the word?!? Surely it would also be in the long term interest of the Pros too. Starting at the cold face might be a good idea....
Rabbit for Commissioner!
Out with the old in with the new!!!
(or we'll wake up tomorrow to 8ft perfect Box and all of the above will be forgot)
Haha!! Let's hope so (the later)...
Cape Leeuwin is currently gusting 33kts from the E, Cape Naturaliste is currently gusting 25kts from the E/SE. It'll be clean at Margs today but quite wind affected. Swell has dropped quite a bit at the buoy too so it looks like it'll probably be held in inconsistent (and easing) 4-6ft surf at Mainbreak this morning.
Looks bloody sweet at the moment.
JJF going to town. Nat Young hanging on by a fingernail. No offence intended to NYoung but, gee i hope JJF gets this heat. He has surfed it so much better than Young.
Dude is a freak.
Amazing - Leeuwin is still gusting 30kts but Naturaliste has eased back to 10kts (as per what we're seeing at Margs). Could be a brief morning terrestrial aberration before the synoptic flow kicks in again. Waves look fun but I reckon their 6-8ft call is a little overly optimistic.
KP is a Genius!
Haha.
taj burrow, the greg norman of surfing :(
Good win to ADS. Surfed well at both the Box and Main break. Schooled Slater (again) in the Quarters. Any comp with an ADS vs Kelly heat is fascinating to watch. Kelly looked like he was getting his magic back until Adriano smoked him.